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$50NL top 2 vs. turn shove

  
 
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allabout
Old 02-11-2008, 04:17 PM     Post subject: $50NL top 2 vs. turn shove #1 (permalink)  
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allabout
SB is tight about 11/7 over 200 hands. Not really worried about BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($35.95)
Button ($7.45)
SB ($51.45)
BB ($10)
Hero ($55.70)
UTG+1 ($48.95)
MP1 ($10.95)
MP2 ($38.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q.
Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) 7, Q, 9 (3 players)
SB bets $3, BB calls $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7, BB calls $5 (All-In).

Turn: ($-48.90) A (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.5, SB raises to $39.45, Hero ??
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jimmy44
Old 02-11-2008, 04:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Tough tough tough spot!!
Most likely villain hands are 77, 99 and QQ. I don't think you see enough times an OESD (e.g. JT) when the pot is protected. As played, you're getting 1-3.5 odds. Do you think he's bluffing more then 23% of the time? I think you have to call here, but you'll have the worst of it most of the time.
I think it would have been better to check turn keeping the pot small. If villain pushes river we still have a tough decision, if he bets 1/2 pot we have to call as we would getting good odds.
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Jimmy Mac
Old 02-11-2008, 04:44 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I think you committed yourself with your turn bet here, so I would call at that point. I don't expect this nit to have worse than AQ very often though - his flop play concerns me.
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