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allabout
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08-20-2009, 07:06 PM
Post subject: $50NL combo draw on turn
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 276
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Ok, so help me out on whether or not its ok to call this turn bet. Limped pot so he can have anything obviously, but he played passively on the flop and donks aggressively on the turn. But since we're deep is it good to call the turn if I assume I can get stacks in on the river when I hit? Obviously I could be pwned sometimes if he has the flush draw but I don't think most people would play a flush draw like this, especially on the turn. His stats (if they matter much) are 21/2 pre, aggression of 2.5 (39%).
I stoved a range and figuring he has 333 or 444 or any 2pr on turn or just a fl draw its about 50/50. So the question is do you think its profitable in the long run (will he call enough on the end)?
Thanks!
Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer
saw flop
Button ($88.13)
SB ($50.08)
BB ($84.10)
UTG ($20.95)
UTG+1 ($20)
MP1 ($24.70)
MP2 ($115.47)
MP3 ($11.35)
Hero (CO) ($102.10)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 6 , 5
1 fold, UTG+1 checks, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB checks
Flop: ($1.75) 4 , K, 3 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.50, Button raises to $5.50, BB calls $5.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3
Turn: ($18.25) J (3 players)
BB bets $19.65, Hero calls $19.65, ($58.35 left behind) 1 fold
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Off the top of my head you have to get like another $21 in on river if you hit... assuming he has a set. I think folding here is -EV in the long term especially given that if you hit one of your straight outs you'll stack him like 99% of the time.
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allabout
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 276
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I just realized I had the wrong stove numbers on here though. It's 50/50 on the flop but 70/30 on the turn...
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Elmer Letterman
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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preflop limping is pretty bad vs short stack UTG1. Its a no-brainer call on the turn.
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BluffCheck
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 48
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does anybody else like a c/c or c/r on flop?
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Iso preflop>>>> limping. 3bet flop you have a monster and there's tonnes of money in the pot. Don't just shove though, 3bet to ~$24 and shove any turn. c/r flop is dumb since there's only one player left to act.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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just get it in on the flop
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,449
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Parasurama
just get it in on the flop
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do not agree with this
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I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters
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allabout
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 276
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
Iso preflop>>>> limping. 3bet flop you have a monster and there's tonnes of money in the pot. Don't just shove though, 3bet to ~$24 and shove any turn. c/r flop is dumb since there's only one player left to act.
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Just to be sure it doesn't matter that we're iso-ing a shorter stack UTG+1 limper?
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Elmer Letterman
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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I like the b/3b line, since you have a monster draw and not only your equity will diminish by the turn, you also may not get paid when you hit your draw.
Also, why overbet flop?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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allabout
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 276
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
Also, why overbet flop?
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Hmmm... Really not sure why I did that. I'm not usually one for overbetting flops especially and didn't even notice I did that.
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Elmer Letterman
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