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$200NL - wtf?

  
 
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XTR1000
Old 04-01-2008, 10:05 PM     Post subject: $200NL - wtf? #1 (permalink)  
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UTG+1 21/10/1.2
Shortie 10/6/1.3
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
10 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($245.05)
UTG+1 ($288.55)
UTG+2 ($260.30)
MP1 ($37.00)
MP2 ($65.60)
Hero ($226.35)
CO ($150.00)
BTN ($231.80)
SB ($217.55)
BB ($37.00)
[CO posted $2]

Pre-flop: ($5, 10 players) Hero is MP3
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $8, 2 folds, MP2 calls $8, Hero raises to $33, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $25, MP2 calls $25

Flop: ($104, 3 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $255.55, MP2 goes all-in $32.6, $193.35 to Hero ($193.35)?
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Fnord
Old 04-01-2008, 10:16 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I've folded a hand that pretty much went down exactly like this before in a Live game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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pokerfan
Old 04-01-2008, 11:09 PM #3 (permalink)  
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go gambol!!!!!! too much money in this pot for you to lay it down. Also, i think you have good odds to call this shove.
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BankItDrew
Old 04-01-2008, 11:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 easy call because of the pot odds man


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elipsesjeff
Old 04-02-2008, 12:27 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, you gotta go with it.


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jimmy44
Old 04-02-2008, 11:53 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 In the worst case scenario opps hands are TT+/66/KQcc/QJcc and, therefore, with the pot odds (1.67-1 from $322 - $193) you're getting you cannot fold.
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sweetlemon69
Old 04-02-2008, 02:33 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Hate to ask this easy question for you guys... but why are knee jerk calling this because of 1.6'ish-1 pot odds? What are the odds for us completing the best hand?
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Erpel
Old 04-02-2008, 07:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

Assuming 9 clean outs to the nut flush is my assumption - that'd be 35%.

35% chance to hit it, 65% chance to miss it is 13 to 7 odds against, which to me means 1.6 to 1 pot odds are not terribly attractive.

Furthermore, since there's a pat flush possible on this board I see no reason to assume that both the others are playing sets or two pair - a KcXc pat flush isn't completely impossible.

Needless to say I'm a little confused by the call here also. But that said, I have no idea how to read the AI on the flop.
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Erpel
Old 04-02-2008, 07:58 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
In the worst case scenario opps hands are TT+/66/KQcc/QJcc and, therefore, with the pot odds (1.67-1 from $322 - $193) you're getting you cannot fold.
PokerStove calls this range 28.4% equity to our Hero - even worse than the 13 to 7 odds I was assuming in my previous post.
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elipsesjeff
Old 04-02-2008, 11:24 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 How many pot odds do you need???

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.005 secs 7,128,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.758% 40.76% 00.00% 14526 0.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 59.242% 59.24% 00.00% 21114 0.00 { TT+, 66, 22, ATs, ATo }


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dev
Old 04-03-2008, 08:38 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
How many pot odds do you need???

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.005 secs 7,128,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.758% 40.76% 00.00% 14526 0.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 59.242% 59.24% 00.00% 21114 0.00 { TT+, 66, 22, ATs, ATo }


---
no chance of a made flush?
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bigslikk
Old 04-03-2008, 11:09 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I think your average villain is shoving pairish hands- top pair, overpair, and sets- to try to protect against draws. I think shoving a pat flush OOP with 2 behind is more sophisticated, and therefore rarer, play. You've got to give yourself 8-9 outs to the nuts, with up to 6 more if he's got AT or jacks, or maybe top pair with a Qc, Kc, Jc. 9-15 outs = 36%-50+% to take the pot. I take the deal.

I think sets are likely here (which sucks for you) but not likely enough to muck.
 
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