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$200nl - AJ OOP, catch on 99QJ turn

  
 
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spoonitnow
Old 02-13-2008, 02:53 AM     Post subject: $200nl - AJ OOP, catch on 99QJ turn #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is a 12/4 regular nit who is probably a winning player but is kind of passive. Also, his fold to cbet % was around 70-75% if I remember correctly.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($274.45)
MP1 ($90.70)
MP2 ($106.70)
MP3 ($235.40)
CO ($80.45)
Button ($48)
Hero ($199)
BB ($199)
UTG ($272.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 calls $2, 4 folds, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $10, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($28) 9, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $22, UTG+1 calls $22.

Turn: ($72) J (2 players)
Hero ...

So I'm sitting here like wtf. I figure a nit would open limp/call from UTG+1 with shit like medium to small pocket pairs or maybe some suited connectors, and the hands that call my c-bet are flush draws that don't care what I have, 9's that hope I have a big pair, and small pocket pairs who put me on missed overs. I don't think he hardly ever has a queen here but maybe I'm wrong about that.

So I figure if I shoot a second barrel on the turn then it's setting me up to lose a big pot when I'm behind and win a small pot when I'm ahead. If he has a small pair or a flush draw, I don't think he'll try to take it away enough on the turn to justify calling a bet. He just doesn't seem like that aware or active or aggressive or whatever of a player.

With all of this in consideration, I guess I should c/f the turn and maybe c/c the river if a club doesn't come. This hand gave me a bit of trouble, and still is.

Thoughts?
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Deanglow
Old 02-13-2008, 02:55 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I would bet 2/3 pot on the turn and check/fold the river. Don't be suprised to see AQ or even better. What regular is this?
 
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Fnord
Old 02-13-2008, 02:55 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Yeah, time to abort.
 
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hopeful
Old 02-15-2008, 07:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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hopeful
You have answered this problem yourself. The flop could easily have been an orphan but A passive player who folds to most Cbets calls yor pot size bet. I dont know what he had but it beat your nothing on the flop. Looking at the flop anyone with a piece of it also beats your jacks. check fold.
I am interested in your pre flop raise, SB 6BB with AJs. Its not in my playbook the max i would have gone is $8 and to be honest it would have been a marginal play for me most times i would have folded this pre flop.
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BankItDrew
Old 02-15-2008, 08:04 PM #5 (permalink)  
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A nit? you're behind here a large % of the time.


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