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$100nl, should i bluff 3 streets here against lp pfr?

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 02-22-2008, 03:28 AM     Post subject: $100nl, should i bluff 3 streets here against lp pfr? #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 11.6/6.8/1.5 over 219 hands with 85.7% won showdown%.
Should i follow up a river shove to get him off ? what do you folks think about his calling range? Is it the good timing to shove this blank river against this type of tight player?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($108.35)
CO ($252.70)
Button ($91)
Hero ($106.75)
BB ($125.80)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($78.40)
MP1 ($41.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8.
4 folds, CO raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 3, J, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6, Hero raises to $20, CO calls $14.

Turn: ($49) A (2 players)
Hero bets $22, CO calls $22.

River: ($93) 5 (2 players)
Hero ??
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pgil
Old 02-22-2008, 04:18 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I would imagine when he calls your check raise on the flop, and then calls the turn after the A falls, he shouldn't be folding a lot. He might, but he shouldn't.

He might have a flush draw or something like that that will fold, but not much that you are ahead of outside of 99/TT, and even they may be priced in to call.
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pokerfan
Old 02-22-2008, 04:24 AM #3 (permalink)  
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how about QQ/KK ? would this type of players call a shove with these two hands? i wouldnt put him on AK here when he called my c/r on flop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgil
I would imagine when he calls your check raise on the flop, and then calls the turn after the A falls, he shouldn't be folding a lot. He might, but he shouldn't.

He might have a flush draw or something like that that will fold, but not much that you are ahead of outside of 99/TT, and even they may be priced in to call.
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pgil
Old 02-22-2008, 04:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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60 into 93, he probably should. I don't think he has that narrow of a range from the CO though.

hands that he could have that he is not folding: 33/77/JJ/AA/AdKd/AdQd/AJ.

hands he could have that are ahead of you that may fold:
99/TT/Jx where x = 9-K/maybe QQ

have you given the table/him any reason to think you may be full of shit here? the real problem is your line looks an awful lot like a flushdraw line to me, and that would make me call you lighter. I don't know anything about you or your villain, so I can't comment if he would see this as a FD or not.
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pokerfan
Old 02-22-2008, 04:55 AM #5 (permalink)  
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my image was pretty tight running like 13.6/9.3 and neither c/r before nor did anything out of line against this tight guy. My thought process was If he had set, he would get all money in right on flop or turn, AA,JJ,77, 33 definitely not in his range here. I was only worried about AJ or AdKd/Qd here really but top pair hands might fold to a river shove given my aggressive line the whole way, right? personally, i would fold to any big shove even with AK /AQ in these spots facing consistent huge set line aggression. Still, its a very tough decision for me though.
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Originally Posted by pgil
60 into 93, he probably should. I don't think he has that narrow of a range from the CO though.

hands that he could have that he is not folding: 33/77/JJ/AA/AdKd/AdQd/AJ.

hands he could have that are ahead of you that may fold:
99/TT/Jx where x = 9-K/maybe QQ

have you given the table/him any reason to think you may be full of shit here? the real problem is your line looks an awful lot like a flushdraw line to me, and that would make me call you lighter. I don't know anything about you or your villain, so I can't comment if he would see this as a FD or not.
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XTR1000
Old 02-22-2008, 11:47 AM #6 (permalink)  
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ur line doesnt make much sense. You´re trying to rep 33/77/AJ, but those hands would bet the turn way harder with the FD out and an A turn that is very likely to have CO hit. Only hands u could expect to fold out are 99/TT/KdQd

In general, I´d be careful with multiway bluffs OOP vs somewhat sane opponents and not being the preflop agressor. If you´re deciding to defend here 3betting pre would be the better option. He´s likely to fold and you´re nicely balancing your QQ+ from the blinds.
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Muzzard
Old 02-22-2008, 12:00 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I think we really need to think about the bet sizes here to be effective. Making that size c/r on the flop leaves it awkward on the turn and river.

On the turn we cant be close to pot as it would leave a weak-ass river bet. We also cant shove turn as its such an over bet. If we bet/bet/bet or c/r turn or c/r flop to more like 25. It leaves us with better sizing options.
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pokerfan
Old 02-22-2008, 01:08 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Its why i didnt bet much on the turn , leaving some room on the river shove. As played, i shoved on the river, he folded quickly without even tanking a while . so i thought i folded QQ, KK, pair J, weak Ace and any flush draw something like that. I dont really think such a nitty player will call my shove with one pair hand.
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Muzzard
Old 02-28-2008, 03:59 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Its why i didnt bet much on the turn , leaving some room on the river shove.
The point I made about bet sizing was in reference mainly to the turn bet size, its awful. You wouldn't bet this weak with a set or AJ. That's why the flop play was so important - and IMO you got it wrong raising to $20 as it left you very awkward on turn and river.
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