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spoonitnow
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02-17-2008, 02:24 PM
Post subject: $100nl - Catch set on river versus ubernit
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
BB ($97.50)
UTG ($83.35)
Hero ($107.40)
MP1 ($84)
MP2 ($85.10)
CO ($65.40)
Button ($157.90)
SB ($19)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8 , 8 .
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $8, 4 folds, Hero calls $4.
Flop: ($17.50) 2, 6, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.
Turn: ($17.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.
River: ($17.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 raises to $28, Hero ...
Final Pot: $73.50
This guy is a 4/3 super nit. I have to call $16 to win about $47.50, so I'm getting close to 3:1. At the time, here was my thought process: I decided that he has AA, QQ, or sometimes AQ. There are 6 combinations of AA/QQ and 9 combinations of AQ, but I have to discount the fuck out of AQ for obvious reasons, so if he only plays AQ like this 22% of the time (an overestimation imo) then there are 6 hands that beat me and 2 that I beat, giving me 3:1. By itself this is a fold, but I have a hard time trusting my own judgment in spots like this. Thoughts?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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I would just call this 100% of the time. Folding would make me sick and raising is bad.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
I would just call this 100% of the time. Folding would make me sick and raising is bad.
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I feel the same about it now.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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I´m with Dean, foldings sucks.
Who does check QQQ twice and checks thru turned top set?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XTR1000
I´m with Dean, foldings sucks.
Who does check QQQ twice and checks thru turned top set?
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FWIW he did have QQQ, though it's not really important.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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lol i shove river
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
lol i shove river
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This is the worst EV play imo.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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thers abolsutly no way i can put him on QQQ, AAA here given his play. i consider ive the nutz here.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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MuddyWicket
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: UK, Brighton
Posts: 368
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damn i just lost my whole stack here as well.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
thers abolsutly no way i can put him on QQQ, AAA here given his play. i consider ive the nutz here.
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What other hands would he play like this that call a shove?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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REDBRG
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Winnerpeg Winterpeg... I hate Winnipeg...
Posts: 37
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What's your image? Has he been aggro on the river that you have seen?
With you being UTG +1 and raising, i would think your ubernit would only RR QQ+, probably not a non-paired hand. I would have a hard time letting myself fold, but your gut is leaning towards a fold. Could you even give him 1/9 on RRing that AQs? Sounds like you knew you should have folded...
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I'm not addicted to blackjack. I'm just addicted to sitting in a semi-circle.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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tbh i dont really know, he has played if so weird. again id feel ive made the nutz so im shoving!!! btw AK cud do this easily.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by REDBRG
What's your image? Has he been aggro on the river that you have seen?
With you being UTG +1 and raising, i would think your ubernit would only RR QQ+, probably not a non-paired hand. I would have a hard time letting myself fold, but your gut is leaning towards a fold. Could you even give him 1/9 on RRing that AQs? Sounds like you knew you should have folded...
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The pot odds are too good to fold.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
tbh i dont really know, he has played if so weird. again id feel ive made the nutz so im shoving!!! btw AK cud do this easily.
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But I don't think AK calls a shove.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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The worst hand he makes that river raise with is AQ and I think QQ is most likely holding. Just call.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Pay the man his monies.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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omg folding is just retarded. You have to understand actual probability of hands here. Let's say assuming they are all equally likely to occur, we think he has AA/QQ 90% of the time, and AQ or something random 10%, bot unreasonable right? Well guess what? AQ is twice (maybe a little less?) as likely to occur given this board than AA/QQ, so that changes the actual EV to something like 75% AA/QQ, and 25% something else. Given that thinking he has AA/QQ 90% of the time is probably overshooting it, it makes it an even easier call.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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The fact that he played it like this says call. He's lost all value in either case and now you have what I would think is a ton of his range beat by the river. He min bet pre and min raised the river. I call all day, he's losing a ton here.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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His play is so retarded, you have to look him up here. He lost so much value on his raise sizes that I wouldn't sweat it.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
omg folding is just retarded. You have to understand actual probability of hands here. Let's say assuming they are all equally likely to occur, we think he has AA/QQ 90% of the time, and AQ or something random 10%, bot unreasonable right? Well guess what? AQ is twice (maybe a little less?) as likely to occur given this board than AA/QQ, so that changes the actual EV to something like 75% AA/QQ, and 25% something else. Given that thinking he has AA/QQ 90% of the time is probably overshooting it, it makes it an even easier call.
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Obv we're not folding. Also I stated the probability of each hand and whatnot.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Yeah didn't read your post, you should include like 5-10% of the time he has something completely random including AK.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Pay the man his monies.
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lol i just saw this and it got a chuckle
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Yeah didn't read your post, you should include like 5-10% of the time he has something completely random including AK.
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This is true.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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