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$100nl 99 preflop spot

  
 
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spoonitnow
Old 11-01-2007, 05:34 PM     Post subject: $100nl 99 preflop spot #1 (permalink)  
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 BB is 48/20/1.5 over > 300 hands. No reads on MP2.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($51.05)
UTG ($85.50)
UTG+1 ($35.20)
MP1 ($117.75)
MP2 ($54.20)
CO ($75.55)
Button ($26.70)
Hero ($99)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9.
UTG raises to $5, 2 folds, MP2 calls $5, 2 folds, Hero calls $4.50, BB raises to $51.05, UTG folds, MP2 raises to $54.2, Hero ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Clar17y
Old 11-01-2007, 05:47 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Um fold?

You can't play it for set value as the odds just aren't there to call, and a guy just cold called then 4-bet. You have 2 other people in the pot who both like their hands.

I don't think folding is bad... lol. Unless this is a results orientated post and they both had AK or something.
Especially since you don't have BBs 3-bet %age from stats. Even players that raise 20% of hands might only 3-bet with KK+.

Saying that, the other day some donk moved all-in over my 3-bet with JJ, lucky me was holding aces ($120 free monies )

Clar
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Fnord
Old 11-01-2007, 06:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I might call because GAMB00Ling is fun!

I don't think it matters much what you do, though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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spoonitnow
Old 11-01-2007, 06:18 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I might call because GAMB00Ling is fun!

I don't think it matters much what you do, though.
I felt it was a close decision as well, but how does the fact that we're facing a call and a 3-bet over a UTG raise affect our decision?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Clar17y
Old 11-01-2007, 06:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I might call because GAMB00Ling is fun!

I don't think it matters much what you do, though.
Is this because sometimes there's no overpair and we're 35-45%, which makes up for the times we're behind against overpairs?

High variance plays ftw? lol

Clar
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spoonitnow
Old 11-01-2007, 06:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Um fold?

You can't play it for set value as the odds just aren't there to call, and a guy just cold called then 4-bet. You have 2 other people in the pot who both like their hands.

I don't think folding is bad... lol. Unless this is a results orientated post and they both had AK or something.
Especially since you don't have BBs 3-bet %age from stats. Even players that raise 20% of hands might only 3-bet with KK+.

Saying that, the other day some donk moved all-in over my 3-bet with JJ, lucky me was holding aces ($120 free monies )

Clar
I highly doubt BB's range is anywhere close to just KK+ here.

I need to win 29.9% of the time to break even. To give you an idea, if villains have AK and QJ then I have 33% equity. If they have AK and AQ, I move up to 45% equity. If either of them has an overpair, I'm at about 18%.

I think a fair range for MP2 is QQ-TT,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ and a slightly tight range for BB is 77+,AJs+,AJo+. Against these ranges, I've got barely enough equity for a call at 31.3%, but this goes to show that it's a lot closer than you indicated in your reply.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Clar17y
Old 11-01-2007, 06:38 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Wow and this is stars full ring 100 NL ??? lol
Maybe at party i could believe a call... :P

KK+ wasn't what i actually put him on, it was just an example. I doubt he 3-bet shoves 77 here?

What would you do if BB shoved and MP2 folded? Easy call?
I guess a shove is kind of fishy, premium pairs would 3-bet to say $16 to try and get some hands to call hoping to bloat the pot rather than get a fold.
MP2 just worries me too much to continue with 99. I don't believe someone in a FR 100NL game at stars would re-raise a 3-bet shove with less than QQ+,AK.

*edit* - PLUS if we fold we only lose the $5 or so we put in the pot to start with, and we get to see what cards MP2 calls/raises a shove with. If it's AQo, then we can just remember for next time instead of risking our stack here with no info?

With no reads doesn't MP2 worry you?
Also why did you put MP2 on QQ-TT not TT+? You think he re-raises KK+ every time?

Clar
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Fnord
Old 11-01-2007, 06:43 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
High variance plays ftw? lol
GAMB00L!

That said, your reply is missing a few key details and has a bit of an SnG tone to it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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spoonitnow
Old 11-01-2007, 06:47 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Wow and this is stars full ring 100 NL ??? lol
Maybe at party i could believe a call... :P

KK+ wasn't what i actually put him on, it was just an example. I doubt he 3-bet shoves 77 here?

What would you do if BB shoved and MP2 folded? Easy call?
I guess a shove is kind of fishy, premium pairs would 3-bet to say $16 to try and get some hands to call hoping to bloat the pot rather than get a fold.
MP2 just worries me too much to continue with 99. I don't believe someone in a FR 100NL game at stars would re-raise a 3-bet shove with less than QQ+,AK.

With no reads doesn't MP2 worry you?

Clar
Not related but a raise to $16 by BB would have been pretty bad with a raiser and 2 callers already in the hand.

Because of the very small difference in stacks between BB and MP2, I think it's closer to how we think of a call/call than how we think of a call/4-bet.

MP2 could have read BB's range as being relatively wide in that spot so I think the range of hands he plays this way with are higher in return.

Besides, they're not human beings, they're 50bb stacks =P coughfnordcough

Edit: I think it's very unlikely MP2 has KK+ here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Clar17y
Old 11-01-2007, 07:01 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Yeah i forgot pot size at time of 3-betting with that one so i'll just hush-hush.

If MP2 had 100bb and 4-bet shoved over, then you'd fold. Right? Right??
Back to hand. Ok, he could read BB as weak and call with marginal holdings, but i'm still saying fold :P lol

Results? plz?
Clar
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spoonitnow
Old 11-01-2007, 07:27 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Yeah i forgot pot size at time of 3-betting with that one so i'll just hush-hush.

If MP2 had 100bb and 4-bet shoved over, then you'd fold. Right? Right??
Back to hand. Ok, he could read BB as weak and call with marginal holdings, but i'm still saying fold :P lol

Results? plz?
Clar
MP2 had KQs. BB had AA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Clar17y
Old 11-01-2007, 07:38 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Yeah i forgot pot size at time of 3-betting with that one so i'll just hush-hush.

If MP2 had 100bb and 4-bet shoved over, then you'd fold. Right? Right??
Back to hand. Ok, he could read BB as weak and call with marginal holdings, but i'm still saying fold :P lol

Results? plz?
Clar
MP2 had KQs. BB had AA.
Winnar. Completely wrong reasoning tho lol. You end up calling or looking back and thinking "This could spark interesting discussions".

Notice how i said his range could've been KK+ though eh? Genius. (jk obv)

Clar
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spoonitnow
Old 11-01-2007, 07:43 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Yeah i forgot pot size at time of 3-betting with that one so i'll just hush-hush.

If MP2 had 100bb and 4-bet shoved over, then you'd fold. Right? Right??
Back to hand. Ok, he could read BB as weak and call with marginal holdings, but i'm still saying fold :P lol

Results? plz?
Clar
MP2 had KQs. BB had AA.
Winnar. Completely wrong reasoning tho lol. You end up calling or looking back and thinking "This could spark interesting discussions".

Notice how i said his range could've been KK+ though eh? Genius. (jk obv)

Clar
I posted the hand while grinding and didn't really see what they had until just a few moments ago.

I had to look it up in PT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Fnord
Old 11-01-2007, 08:07 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Besides, they're not human beings, they're 50bb stacks =P coughfnordcough
No offense taken. Most shorties are retarded and I'm happy to be grouped with them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Miffed22001
Old 11-01-2007, 08:10 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 TT-JJ is a quite convincing call. i think 99 is not because of the likelyhood of TT-JJ being in ranges.

that said, its still super close and perhaps 0ev?
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BankItDrew
Old 11-02-2007, 03:44 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 extremely -ev to call. most of the time you are up against a bigger pair. 90% of the rest of the time you are up against at least one set of overcards.


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Renton
Old 11-02-2007, 05:52 AM #17 (permalink)  
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 its absurd how easy of a fold this is
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Renton
Old 11-02-2007, 05:53 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 i think TT would be a fold as well. JJ i'd call.
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