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zook
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11-02-2006, 07:41 PM
Post subject: zook's Picks: NFL Week 9
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Well, I did something dumb this week and made an early bet on a line I thought would move. It did move, but 2 points in the opposite direction I was expecting  So, I'm stuck with:
Den (+1) vs. PIT (+120) @ Pinnacle - 2 units
I still really like this game. I have no idea why Denver is an underdog here. The line is at +3 right now, and I'll probably hop on that for one or two more units. Moneyline is tempting, but 3 points is nothing to sneeze at with two good defensive teams.
I don't like the teaser options this week, but I'm thinking about straight bets on:
Atl (-5) vs. DET
SEA (-7) vs. Oak
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Yeah. I got caught in that trap too.
I thought for sure line would move the othe rway.
Now I'm stuck. I'm probably going to have to eat a 2 unit loss on it.
I got even worse than you, actually. I have DEN pk (+101). Fuck me...
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Now I'm stuck. I'm probably going to have to eat a 2 unit loss on it.
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No you're not, Denver's gonna win! 
Did you see this from the Pinnacle Pulse yesterday?
Quote:
Denver +2.5 +103 v. Pittsburgh
Every once in awhile, we are really surprised at how the public bets on a game. This is one of those instances – we opened Denver as a 1-point favorite, and took three bets on the Steelers for every one on the Broncos. The sharps started betting on Denver mid-week, but the heavier public volume is still causing this line to creep towards Pittsburgh -3.
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What's weird is that the site I check to see what the public's betting is showing 70% on Denver. WTF.
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Yeah. I think they're blowing smoke up our butts.
I have 8 units on DEN M/L at +102.
I'm probably going to have to go the other way with PIT M/L at -147. YUCH...
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I think eating this loss is -EV. To make it +EV to turn an 8-point play into a sure ~2 unit loss, Pittsburgh has to win 60% of the time, i.e. be a 1.5:1 favorite. Right now the moneylines (minus juice) are a little under that.
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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I think PIT wins this more than 60% of the time.
Of course, I also thought last week's IND/DEN game was a trap, and the NE/MIN game was a trap. SO....
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Besides the early 2-unit Denver bet (+1, +120), all I have is:
Atl -5 vs. DET (-103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
I want to put another two units on Denver, but the juice on the +3 line at Pinnacle went up to -115! And the ML went down from a high around +142 to +132. Hmmm... I'll keep watching it I guess.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Ok, added another couple of units on Denver:
Den +3 vs. PIT (-109) 2 units @ Pinnacle
This game is my biggest position of the season 
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Wow, crazy week. About the only game that went how I thought it would was my four-unit play  Just placed this:
Indy +3 vs. NE (+108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Regular-season game, not too much pressure, Peyton will shine. Pats have looked good this year, but they've only played one team that has a winning record after this week and they lost to them (Denver).
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Good day +4 units.
YTD Record Update:
Straight wagers: 8-4
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 0-3
+17 units
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Not to be an ass, but didn't you go 3-1 today?
So Denver +2 units
Indy +1 unit
Atlanta -1.03 units
How does that equal 4? Just wanted to make sure your records were accurate; inaccurate information is definitely -EV.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Looks like he put 4 units on Denver,2 units at +1 and 2 more when the line moved. Therefore he ended up 4 units to the good.
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Ah...
<--- forgot to read what wasn't in bold. Whoops... 
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Every bet's in bold lee! You're questioning my record-keeping?!?!?!
I'm not as meticulous as you are though, I round things up and down to half-units for the YTD and occasionally bet slightly more or less than whole units (I had ~4.1 units on DEN for example) and don't put it in there. I would never lie to you though, lee
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