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Micro2Macro
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01-20-2010, 06:58 AM
Post subject: YOU CAN'T WIN AT THE POKERS (tldr)
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#1 (permalink)
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Link to article, a man with a finance degree who claims it is rigged due to the rake: http://www.gamblinghelper.com/node/54
Quote:
Home
Online Poker: A Losing Game
by ArchiveBot | Fri, 2006-09-01 04:45
By Stephen Katz
Note: The "rake" or the house's take on each hand referred to by the author in this article also applies to live casino poker as it does in online poker. In poker the rake is the house's advantage. The house, or casino, always has an advantage in every game, from blackjack, roulette, slot machines, baccarat, craps, to VLTs. No casino has ever gone broke.
Online poker is rapidly becoming one of the most popular gambling games at gambling websites on the internet. The main reason for this popularity is the belief that it is a game of skill in which money could be won. This belief is a fallacy. Skillful play will never help gamblers to win money at online poker because winning money at online poker is impossible.
Online poker is a game of skill only to the extent that skillful play would allow gamblers to lose their money slower. Money could temporarily be won in the short-run. In the long-run though, the gambling "house" which operates the gambling website, will permanently win all the money from all of the players. With a fast played game such as poker, the short-run quickly becomes the long-run when playing enough hands. Each hand played whether winning or losing any particular hand, slowly disintegrates the bankroll of every gambler. There is not anything that gamblers can do to save their bankrolls except to never play online poker.
The top poker players in the world do not play poker at gambling websites. Some top poker players may say they do only because of getting paid for endorsements. These top poker players know they can beat the other players, but that they cannot beat the house. There is not anybody on the face of this earth who can make money playing online poker. Even the world's best poker player will never be good enough to overcome the "rake" which is the house cut from each pot.
"It takes a minute to learn and a lifetime to master" is a phrase used by some gambling website promoters to describe the poker game of Texas Holdem. This phrase is true when playing against other poker players if there is not any rake. But this phrase is false for online poker because of the rake involved. Gambling house promoters know this phrase is false for their poker. Yet they keep parroting this phrase to fool you into thinking that even though you keep losing money at their website, that one day you could "master" Texas Holdem and then start making money. This phrase for online Texas Holdem should be corrected to truthfully state, "It takes a minute to learn and a lifetime to lose money."
Here is an example of how the gambling house will always win all the money from all of the players. Five players sit-in on an online poker game each with a $20 bankroll for a total at the website table of $100. Let's say the average pot is $10 and the rake is 5% or 50 cents per hand. Let's say 200 hands are played which does not take that long. After 200 hands, that 50 cents rake per hand totals $100 which is the entire amount that all of the players started with at the website table. Of course not all of the players go broke at the exact same time and fresh money can come into the game. But sooner or later each gambler will eventually lose their $20 bankroll every time without exception. If bringing in $20, that will also eventually be lost. Every amount brought in will eventually be lost through continued play. Those are the facts in a nutshell. Any honest mathematician, statistician, or numbers expert who understands the game of poker, would not dispute the example in this paragraph.
Now knowing that money cannot be won playing online poker, here are three more nails in the online poker coffin so that this complete waste of your money, time and life can be buried:
1. How do you know the other online poker players are real? You could be the only real player at the website table with the rest being software program players which would be programmed so that you could not possibly win even in the short-run.
2. How do you know the cards are a randomly dealt deck? You would eventually lose your money anyway even with a randomly dealt deck. However some gambling houses do not want to wait that long to fleece you out of your money. The cards would be rigged in any which way to assure that you will lose quicker. They can easily rig any hand. For instance you could have four kings on the flop but a software program player gets a fourth ace at the river to beat you.
3. How do you know a gambling website can be trusted with your bank account and credit card information? Without your knowledge, they can easily clean out your bank account and max out your credit card anytime they want. After they do this, even if locating them in their country of origin and getting them hauled into court, they could just falsify some computer records and claim that you gambled away the money. It is highly unlikely that a judge from their country is going to rule in your favor.
There are a good number of dishonest gambling websites out there just waiting to steal money from you. But even if you did happen to find the most honest, forthright, respectable gambling house that exists, it still is a money fleecing business which would be most happy to financially destroy you. Do not give them the pleasure no matter how nice their website appears to be. Do not give them the pleasure no matter how friendly their promoters seem to be. Do not give them the pleasure for any reason.
These gambling houses along with their slick marketing campaigns are very clever at trying to influence you into gambling. Do not believe any advertising or information from gambling websites or other sources which state or imply that money can be made plyaing online poker. Do not let them fool you but if they have, then permanently delete their money fleecing software from your computer.
You have a choice to follow the guidance of this article or play online poker. Playing online poker will cost you money and quite possibly a lot of money. You may get addicted to it even if believing that could not happen. It very well can happen. Unfortunately, getting addicted to online poker has happened to many people. But even if never technically getting addicted to online poker, isn't it foolish to play a game in which losing your money is a certainty? Losing money is not true for online poker, but for all other gambling games on the internet. There are not and never will be any exceptions. You are absolutely, positively guaranteed to lose your money. Those are the facts. Do not allow gambling promoters or anyone else to convince you otherwise.
Please make the right choice, the smart choice and the necessary choice to never play the money losing game of online poker or any other online gambling game [or any gambling game at all]. Keep your money in your bank account where it belongs. Your money does not belong in the bank account of a gambling house.
About the author
Stephen Katz is a graduate of Penn State University having majored in finance. Since graduation he has worked for over twenty-five years in the computer graphics printing business mostly dealing with engineering and design applications. He has been involved with gambling since being a teenager having gambled many thousands of times at casinos, horse racetracks, stock brokerage firms, sporting events, card games and more. He has experimented with hundreds of different gambling systems, strategies and techniques. He has discussed gambling with thousands of other gamblers. He has explored the world of gambling to the fullest. A lot of money was lost but there was always the hope that with a new system, better skill or just some good luck then today could be the start of making money. At some point it had to be acknowledged that making money at gambling was not going to happen. There was a need to quit gambling but the desire was still there. Everyday the thoughts were there that today could be a lucky day at gambling.
From a Casino Manager:
SOME forms of Poker are games of skill, AND a high % of LUCK! I always tell players that it is better to be a Lucky player, than to be a Good player.
.0000001 % of Poker players end up winning at Poker. 99.999999 % LOSE! The question is, "Are you good enough?" The answer is, "Very, very, very, very...(900 times) unlikely." You have more chance of winning the State lottery... twice in a row!
In ANY game where ANY kind of vig or % is taken, it is IMPOSSIBLE to win at Poker, no matter how good the player is.
In Casino Poker, it is IMPOSSIBLE to win period! No matter how good you are! or 'think' you are.
Ravisher.
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Play for FREE and practice your game at...
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
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Quote:
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Stephen Katz is a graduate of Penn State University having majored in finance. Since graduation he has worked for over twenty-five years in the computer graphics printing business mostly dealing with engineering and design applications. He has been involved with gambling since being a teenager having gambled many thousands of times at casinos, horse racetracks, stock brokerage firms, sporting events, card games and more. He has experimented with hundreds of different gambling systems, strategies and techniques. He has discussed gambling with thousands of other gamblers. He has explored the world of gambling to the fullest. A lot of money was lost but there was always the hope that with a new system, better skill or just some good luck then today could be the start of making money. At some point it had to be acknowledged that making money at gambling was not going to happen. There was a need to quit gambling but the desire was still there. Everyday the thoughts were there that today could be a lucky day at gambling.
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LOL, at his finance degree when he doesn't even work in finance for obvious reasons
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givememyleg
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01-20-2010, 06:03 PM
Post subject: Re: YOU CAN'T WIN AT THE POKERS (tldr)
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#3 (permalink)
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
Posts: 5,042
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No casino has ever gone broke.
wat
Skillful play will never help gamblers to win money at online poker because winning money at online poker is impossible.
wat
Online poker is a game of skill only to the extent that skillful play would allow gamblers to lose their money slower.
wat
There is not anybody on the face of this earth who can make money playing online poker.
wat
ok i stopped there.... does this guy even attempt to back himself up in anyway?
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"The Dragon in My Garage" by Carl Sagan
I say onto you, I've felt the dragon! I felt the touch of his tail, the breath of his fire, and I know without a shadow of a doubt that the dragon exists!
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
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I 100% believe this guy, and that's why I've reverted to doing the only sure fire way of making money via online poker: I only play freerolls. No investment, no rake, but I can still win real money!!!!
You all should try it sometime.
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surviva316
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if anyone actually feels like e-mailing this guy a response, you could always just use an analogy of the stock market. if you had to pay NASDAQ (let's say) 1% of each investment to make a purchase of a stock, then NASDAQ would be guaranteed to make money, and the entire investing community would be overall losers. yet if a successful investor were to go back through his stock portfolio and subtract 1% of each individual investment, then it would still be profitable (and in fact probable) for the good and successful investors to still be rolling in money.
as that paragraph may or may not demonstrate, i don't ACTUALLY know that much about the stock market, and i wouldn't be at all surprised if it actually DOES work like this irl, but that only helps the analogy.
basically, all he proved was that the overall poker economy is guaranteed to be in the red due to rake, but no shit sherlock that doesn't prove shit.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
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You can't tell me what I can or can not do mr. paper!
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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JKDS
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Full House
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wooooow. like, really?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
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I think your reply was immature. He was probably just writing something he knew little about and did a minimal amount of research.
The only problem with his logic in the part that I read about players unable to win is that he thinks the rake is higher than it is per hand. He says: "Let's say 200 hands are played which does not take that long. After 200 hands, that 50 cents rake per hand totals $100 which is the entire amount that all of the players started with at the website table." That would be a 5% rake assuming everyone shoved all-in preflop for $20 each hand and the rake was uncapped, etc.
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
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Plus isn't the example assuming that there is no transfer of funds between the players? If one player is bad, then his money is going to transfer to others quicker than it will be depleted by rake. Therefore, the other individuals stacks will grow, even while rake is being taken out. Either way, FUUUUU to everyone that doesn't only play freerolls.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
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Also, your reply wasn't just immature, but also pretty arrogant/cocky/asshatish... Kinda like most of the posts I've read from you since I've been back.. Just saying...
FU m2m.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
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HIMSELF AND I
Izzat da name of yo band?
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Also, your reply wasn't just immature, but also pretty arrogant/cocky/asshatish... Kinda like most of the posts I've read from you since I've been back.. Just saying...
FU m2m.
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most of my arrogance/'asshatness' is displayed in places like the tilt forum (I'm pretty sure you're thinking of that one thread in particular where I made a comment about posting bad beats hinders progression.)
I keep bs out of your bc iirc, except when a random freetroller posts garbage of course that's getting locked anyway, but in case you haven't noticed I have been posting reasonable advice yet obviously nothing positive is ever remembered by anyone.
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Personally, YOU may be the worst poster I ever see!
This isn't a hate rant or a new guy bashing, is just my personally (forum user) opinion/review!
I Use forums for years all over the interwebz, and I "NEVER!" but "NEVER" see so many "retarded" words clumped together before, in few hours, like I see in your posts! Nothing personally against YOU, but I realy think the need to educate yourself/get help (no don't /suicide) more...... often.......and soon!
Thanks to all, and GOOD GOD!!!!
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like this is real mature right? I thought you were a moderator
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
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I wasn't referring to the post where you said whining about bad beats hinders progress.. That's obv fine, and I agree with you. Was more of the whole "I should just leave FTR, and save my advice for paying customers" type thing. Either way, it's whatever. I shouldn't have brought it up here, or anywhere, really. Wasn't really meant as a putdown, just an observation, and one very-much open to being incorrect as I have only really skimmed the forums for almost 2 months.
Also, never disagreed with me being immature/bad-mod.
P.S. - I still <3 you more than that gay Dranger.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
I wasn't referring to the post where you said whining about bad beats hinders progress.. That's obv fine, and I agree with you. Was more of the whole "I should just leave FTR, and save my advice for paying customers" type thing. Either way, it's whatever. I shouldn't have brought it up here, or anywhere, really. Wasn't really meant as a putdown, just an observation, and one very-much open to being incorrect as I have only really skimmed the forums for almost 2 months.
Also, never disagreed with me being immature/bad-mod.
P.S. - I still <3 you more than that gay Dranger.
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yeah, I admitted that was an inappropriate thing to say and agree with your observation. I have been pretty burnt out lately and I think I'm going to take a break from posting around here for awhile to benefit all.
perhaps this thread should just be locked since there isn't really anything worth adding and it seems to have gone off track.
P.S. - you are not a bad mod.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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ZwiFT
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Full House
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Your response was idd very immature
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
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Just thought I would add how much I love when clueless individuals print such horrendous articles as this, throw out all of their credentials, as he did with his degree, and people will take this on board, and the majority probably believe this stuff. It's quite sad actually.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Just thought I would add how much I love when clueless individuals print such horrendous articles as this, throw out all of their credentials, as he did with his degree, and people will take this on board, and the majority probably believe this stuff. It's quite sad actually.
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now the thread is back on track 
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kevster
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
The only problem with his logic in the part that I read about players unable to win is that he thinks the rake is higher than it is per hand. He says: "Let's say 200 hands are played which does not take that long. After 200 hands, that 50 cents rake per hand totals $100 which is the entire amount that all of the players started with at the website table." That would be a 5% rake assuming everyone shoved all-in preflop for $20 each hand and the rake was uncapped, etc.
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Good point Spoon but doesn't this just mean we're all going to lose our money slower?
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- You're the reason why paradise lost
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
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WELL IM BOTH IMMATURE AND A BADMOD AND YOU'RE ALL ARROGANT ASSHATS, YOU ARROGANT ASSHATS!
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Sorry I flew off tha handle just now, baby. U know I  u.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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You are immature, arrogant, a bad-mod, and a terrible, unruly, admin.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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was a terrible, unruly admin.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
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Location: UK
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Translation of biography: upper blue collar degen mark
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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