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allabout
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07-03-2008, 01:06 PM
Post subject: Will a pro win the ME this year?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 277
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My buddy says this is the year of the pros at the WSOP and I say I don't think a pro will get through all the luckboxes at the main event. So what do you think, can a big name pro (tv pro, well known name) win the main event this year?
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Elmer Letterman
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
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I think it's close to 50/50, the either do or they don't.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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dthorne04
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: hi
Posts: 478
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i never understood why people ask this question.
there's just too many people and too much variance involved to answer this question. especially with the four month layoff before the final table. amateurs at the final table can get extensive coaching, come back, and look like a completely different player.
basically, it's impossible to predict now.
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derp
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allabout
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 277
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Because its fun to speculate on the future of interesting events with friends. I'm not saying "predict who you think will win", its just simply, will a pro win? To me its like would you take Tiger or the rest of the field in a given golf tournament? Would you take one of the well known pros or any of the thousands of unknowns?
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Elmer Letterman
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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Matt Ross is going to win, you heard it here first
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Absolutely not.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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people who start on part 3 of day 1 have a huge edge
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dthorne04
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: hi
Posts: 478
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by allabout
To me its like would you take Tiger or the rest of the field in a given golf tournament? Would you take one of the well known pros or any of the thousands of unknowns?
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this is actually a completely different scenario altogether. of course you'd take tiger, because he's probably won more money at golf than the entire field combined, and there's much, much more skill involved in golf tournaments, than in poker tournaments.
i'm not trying to come down on you for the question, i'm just saying i don't like it in general. :P
also, as i said. too much variance involved to properly predict this. i would never bet on pros to win this, ever. i wouldn't bet on anyone to win this for that matter.
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derp
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I voted yes because I think ilikeaces is going to win it and he is a pro.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
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Fewer entrants + more 'pros' exist in the poker world -> year of the pro?
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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kevster
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Fold City
Posts: 758
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
people who start on part 3 of day 1 have a huge edge
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please explain
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- You're the reason why paradise lost
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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of course a pros gonna win it because everybody who has won it goes pro by the time they're at the FT. ducy?
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
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if i won, id become a pro for intellipoker
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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i am a pro for intellipoker ducy
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I voted yes because I think ilikeaces is going to win it and he is a pro.
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awesome, i keep forgetting i got a piece!
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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OK, here's a prop bet then.
Give me 30:1 on $50 that one of these people win AND 6:1 on that same $50 (not an additional $50) that at least ONE of them makes the Final Table. Obviously not playing anyone that to my knowledge played on Day 1A. If they busted day 1A I get to replace said bustee.
This list is obv. not of the best 15 tournament players in the world, just a list of 15 people I thought of quickly cuz I wanna gamboooooool.
1. Ivey
2. Cunningham
3. Greenstein
4. Matusow
5. Hellmuth
6. Kenny Tran
7. Tom Durr Dwan
8. David Raptor Bennefield
9. Chad M8kingmoves Batista
10. Shaun Shaunmotherfuckingdeeb Deeb
11. John Gabe Patgorski
12. Cole CTS South
13. Ryan Daut44 Daut (I think he's 21)
14. Johan Busto_soon Van Til
15. Rich Nutsinho Lyndaker
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Sidetrack: Durrrrrr annoys me with a flaming hot intensity.
Back to your regularly scheduled thread.
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
OK, here's a prop bet then.
Give me 30:1 on $50 that one of these people win AND 6:1 on that same $50 (not an additional $50) that at least ONE of them makes the Final Table. Obviously not playing anyone that to my knowledge played on Day 1A. If they busted day 1A I get to replace said bustee.
This list is obv. not of the best 15 tournament players in the world, just a list of 15 people I thought of quickly cuz I wanna gamboooooool.
1. Ivey
2. Cunningham
3. Greenstein
4. Matusow
5. Hellmuth
6. Kenny Tran
7. Tom Durr Dwan
8. David Raptor Bennefield
9. Chad M8kingmoves Batista
10. Shaun Shaunmotherfuckingdeeb Deeb
11. John Gabe Patgorski
12. Cole CTS South
13. Ryan Daut44 Daut (I think he's 21)
14. Johan Busto_soon Van Til
15. Rich Nutsinho Lyndaker |
Dario?
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I had him on there at first, replaced him with Nutsinho because YAY FTR.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
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I come from the future, put it all on black.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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2008 Main even is now underway, day 1a
Day 1a Eliminations: Gavin Smith, Erica Schoenberg( HOT) , Mekhi Phifer, Dan Harrington, Jason Alexander, Shawn Rice, Tuan Lam, David 'The Dragon' Pham, Freddy Deeb, Devilfish, David Benyamine, Young Phan, Phil 'OMGClayAiken' Galfond, Chad Brown, Ralph Perry, Joe Sebok, Juha Helppi, Roland de Wolfe, Berry Johnston, Jon Little, Josh Arieh, Jeff 'YellowSub' Williams, Miami John Cernuto, JJ Liu, Tony Ma, Bob Feduniak, Roy Winston, Katja Thater, Taylor 'Green Plastic' Caby, Lyle Berman, Raymond Rahme, Jan Von Halle, Shirley Rosario, Maureen Feduniak, Vanessa Selbst, John Gale, and Tom 'Durrrrr' Dwan.
End of Day 1a Big Stacks: Brandon Adams, Jon "PearlJammer" Turner, and Mark Vos.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I think 3-4 of the guys I listed are done, I've confirmed at least 2
Durrr
Kenny Tran
Also, they said today's showing was lolbad, I guess having a July 4th Day 1 wasn't a great idea.
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Its not looking good folks, day 1b
The Eliminations: Greg 'Fossilman' Raymer, Daniel Negreanu, Andy Black, Ted Forrest, Tom McEvoy, Jamie Gold, Kristy Gazes, Kenna James, Olga Varkonyi, WIlliam Thorson, DanDruff, and Ross Boatman, Nordberg, Orel Hershiser, Kenny Tran, and Dewey Tomko failed to advance to Day 2.
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
1. Ivey
2. Cunningham
3. Greenstein
4. Matusow
5. Hellmuth
6. Kenny Tran
7. Tom Durr Dwan
8. David Raptor Bennefield
9. Chad M8kingmoves Batista
10. Shaun Shaunmotherfuckingdeeb Deeb
11. John Gabe Patgorski
12. Cole CTS South
13. Ryan Daut44 Daut (I think he's 21)
14. Johan Busto_soon Van Til
15. Rich Nutsinho Lyndaker |
Drop CTS and probably a couple others. High Stakes Online Cash doesn't directly translate into beating terrible players in a tourney. The lines change (short stacks, can't rebuy) and people who can read weak players have a pretty big edge.
Daniel N is a must-have for such a list (loose enough to get chips fast, master of information extraction.)
Eli Elezra is another good one to add.
Gigabet is a short stack savant who's put in a lot of live hours.
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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too bad Dan Negrano is Busto from day 1b
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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kevster
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Fold City
Posts: 758
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
OK, here's a prop bet then.
Give me 30:1 on $50 that one of these people win AND 6:1 on that same $50 (not an additional $50) that at least ONE of them makes the Final Table. Obviously not playing anyone that to my knowledge played on Day 1A. If they busted day 1A I get to replace said bustee.
This list is obv. not of the best 15 tournament players in the world, just a list of 15 people I thought of quickly cuz I wanna gamboooooool.
1. Ivey
2. Cunningham
3. Greenstein
4. Matusow
5. Hellmuth
6. Kenny Tran
7. Tom Durr Dwan
8. David Raptor Bennefield
9. Chad M8kingmoves Batista
10. Shaun Shaunmotherfuckingdeeb Deeb
11. John Gabe Patgorski
12. Cole CTS South
13. Ryan Daut44 Daut (I think he's 21)
14. Johan Busto_soon Van Til
15. Rich Nutsinho Lyndaker |
lol at this bet. Presume you're not being serious.
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- You're the reason why paradise lost
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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where get info from?
live feeds anywhere?
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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I get my updates from http://www.poker-king.com/
its kinda slow too update, but its an interesting site for poka news
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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any news on some flopturnriverers?
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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who's playing from FTR?
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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gabe, sauce, nuts, between 1 and 2 of the twins?
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
who's playing from FTR?
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My guess:
gabe
maxxscam
ilikeaces
nutsinho
busto_soon (johhnyfish)
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
gabe, sauce, nuts, between 1 and 2 of the twins?
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Unless ISF was leveling(i dunno why he would) Sauce is only 19 yo.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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the twins aren't 21 either
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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Not even the older one?
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pankfish
Not even the older one?
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hahahaha you're the win
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Day 1c Eliminations: Marcel Luske, Andre Akkari, Tony G, David Plastik, Paul Darden, Jonathan Kalmar, TJ Cloutier, Kirk Morrison, Mark Gregorich, JC Tran, Bryan Devonshire, Steve Paul-Ambrose, Kevin O'Donnell, Anthony Lellouche, Marco Traniello, Bart Hanson, Joe Tehan, Sam Khouiss, David Chiu, Jesper Hougaard, Issac Haxton, ZeeJustin, Matt McCullough, Jeffrey Lisandro, Gavin Griffin, Vivek Rajkumar, Dmitri Nobles, Joe Reitman, Mimi Tran, Terrence Chan, Edward Moncada, Joe Commisso Scott Seiver, Mike Sexton, Daniel Alaei, Davidi Kitai and the Italian Pirate Max Pescatori.
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
Day 1c Eliminations: Marcel Luske, Andre Akkari, Tony G, David Plastik, Paul Darden, Jonathan Kalmar, TJ Cloutier, Kirk Morrison, Mark Gregorich, JC Tran, Bryan Devonshire, Steve Paul-Ambrose, Kevin O'Donnell, Anthony Lellouche, Marco Traniello, Bart Hanson, Joe Tehan, Sam Khouiss, David Chiu, Jesper Hougaard, Issac Haxton, ZeeJustin, Matt McCullough, Jeffrey Lisandro, Gavin Griffin, Vivek Rajkumar, Dmitri Nobles, Joe Reitman, Mimi Tran, Terrence Chan, Edward Moncada, Joe Commisso Scott Seiver, Mike Sexton, Daniel Alaei, Davidi Kitai and the Italian Pirate Max Pescatori. |
I only recognize Mike Sexton.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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Joe Commisso is the fat guy that played Nuts hu in the 6max tourney.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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Patrick, Ivey, Allen, Dario
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Day 1d Eliminations: Phil Ivey, DonkeyBomber, Jesus, Mario Ho, Jen Tilly, Grant Levy, Chainsaw Kessler, Vinny Vinh, Eskimo, Andy Bloch, Patrick Bruel, Phil Tom, Jose Canseco, Noel Furlong, Paul Wolfe, Scott Lazar, David Williams, Joe Pelton, Forrest Griffin, George Danzer, Chuck Liddell, Sam Simon, Annie Duke, John Murphy, Shaniac, CK Hua, Eugene Todd, Fabrice Soulier, Cyndy Violette, Layne Flack, Melissa Hayden, and Ray Davis.
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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Patrick, Ivey, Allen, Dario
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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Thunder
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: England
Posts: 561
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Mmmm Cyndi Violette!
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kevster
lol at this bet. Presume you're not being serious.
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I'm taking the worst of it, but I like to gamble, and it'll give me something to sweat.
Obviously too late now.
What odds do you think were necessary for it to be a good bet?
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allabout
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: VA USA
Posts: 277
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The neys are looking pretty good early.
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Elmer Letterman
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dthorne04
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: hi
Posts: 478
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sadly, this guy isn't gonna win.
Strong Wang Eliminated
A player in early position raises to 2,000 and Strong Wang reraises all in to 6,500 in the cutoff. Richard Wyrick calls in the big blind and EP raises again, all in, for 20,300. Wyrick calls.
Wyrick: {9-Spades}{9-Clubs}
EP: {Q-Hearts}{Q-Diamonds}
Wang: {A-Spades}{Q-Clubs}
Board: {Q-Spades}{K-Spades}{2-Diamonds}{10-Diamonds}{2-Spades}
Richard Wyrick has 38,000 left, and Strong Wang has left the building.
strong wang ftw
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derp
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kevster
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Fold City
Posts: 758
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kevster
lol at this bet. Presume you're not being serious.
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I'm taking the worst of it, but I like to gamble, and it'll give me something to sweat.
Obviously too late now.
What odds do you think were necessary for it to be a good bet? |
Not sure but I was lol'ing at the idea that anyone would put up $1500 to win $50.
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- You're the reason why paradise lost
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bigmikea78
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2
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Well, it's late in Day 5 and with only 90 people left...Phil Hellmuth and Mike Matusow are still around...
Brandon Cantu has 3.2 mil in chips and Mark Vos has 1.75 mil.
So still some large name pros with a shot to bring home the bracelet.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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david benefield has the best chance of any pro left, especially since he is top 10 in chips
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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