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DoGGz
Old 10-17-2005, 10:23 PM     Post subject: Week 7 NFL #1 (permalink)  
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The lines are coming out, and I already like a few of them. The Broncos are +2 vs the Giants. I don' t see how they are the underdog here. The Seahawks are also -3 vs the Cowboys. I'm going to wait and see if Jones is going to be ready to play. If Jones is ready to play I definately like the Cowboys and points.

Sun 10/23 417 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 -104 OVER 43 -105
10:00 AM 418 Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -104 UNDER 43 -105
Sun 10/23 419 San Diego Chargers +4 -112 +164 OVER 47 -101
10:00 AM 420 Philadelphia Eagles -4 +104 -174 UNDER 47 -109
Sun 10/23 421 Kansas City Chiefs +2 -105 OVER 42 -117
10:00 AM 422 Miami Dolphins -2 -103 UNDER 42 +107
Sun 10/23 423 Detroit Lions +2.5 -103 +126 OVER 35.5 +102
10:00 AM 424 Cleveland Browns -2.5 -105 -136 UNDER 35.5 -112
Sun 10/23 425 San Francisco 49ers +12 +102 +580 OVER 37 -116
10:00 AM 426 Washington Redskins -12 -110 -640 UNDER 37 +106
Sun 10/23 427 Dallas Cowboys +3 +101 +155 OVER 45.5 -110
01:05 PM 428 Seattle Seahawks -3 -109 -165 UNDER 45.5 +100
Sun 10/23 429 Buffalo Bills +3 -115 +138 OVER 40.5 -105
01:15 PM 430 Oakland Raiders -3 +107 -148 UNDER 40.5 -105
Sun 10/23 431 Baltimore Ravens pk +104 OVER 32 +109
01:15 PM 432 Chicago Bears pk -112 UNDER 32 -119
Sun 10/23 433 Tennessee Titans +3 +117 +170 OVER 45 -112
01:15 PM 434 Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 -180 UNDER 45 +102
Sun 10/23 435 Denver Broncos +2 -102 OVER 47 -105
01:15 PM 436 New York Giants -2 -106 UNDER 47 -105
Mon 10/24 437 New York Jets +7 -111 +275 OVER 40.5 -105
06:05 PM 438 Atlanta Falcons -7 +103 -305 UNDER 40.5 -105
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DoGGz
Old 10-18-2005, 11:52 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Ok, I spent the day looking at the games and the possible picks, and I found the 3 I like. I feel strong with all 3 of these picks so I will just call them

PLAYS OF THE WEEK

KC +2 AT Miami
Denver +2 AT Ny Giants
San Diego +4 AT Philly

All bets are 3 units.

First of, lets look at the SD Philly game. What we need to look at here is how the Chargers are playing, and they are playing well. The Chargers are 3-3, but that record is very decieving. Their 3 losses are to the Cowboys, Steelers, and Broncos, all among the top teams in the league. On top of that, they were close games with none of them winning by over 4 points.

The 3 wins the Chargers have are vs OAK, NE, and NYG. All three of these teams are pass heavy with only a decent running attack. Sound like Philly? Sure does. On top of that, the Eagles run defence is decent at best this year, and any time LT goes over 100 yards you can put it in the books.

KC AT Miami

KC hasn't fallen THAT far, have they? They are coming in off a very very tough 4 games going 2-2 vs playoff teams. The Dolphins are not a playoff team. The Dolphins haven't even been beating average teams, and if you throw away week one it looks even worse. The Dolphins have been playing a very sloppy game and that hasn't helped them out. Last week the Dolphins let Pittman come in off the bench and run up a 100 yard game, what are they going to do with Holmes AND Johnson? And, if that wasn't any better, the Chiefs have one of the best run defences in the league. Sorry Ricky, your going to have to wait until Week 8.


Denver AT NYG

This one I just don't get. How is Denver NOT favored? They have won their past five games vs PLAYOFF TEAMS. SD, KC, JAC, WAS, NE all fell. The Broncos are by far the most underrated team in the league. JAKE PLUMMER IS FOR REAL! On top of this, you have a Giants team that couldn't even beat a Cowboys team without their best player (Jones). The Cowboys TRIED over and over to give the game to the Giants, but they just didn't seem to want that win.

The Giants are looking good, but the Broncos are (literally) going to run over them.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 10-18-2005, 04:28 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Yeah i like alot this week. i am looking at some of the same games you are.
Im on
KC+1.5
Pitt pck
49ers +13
Bills +3
Denver +2

and you are making me lean towards a SD play.

Going to check more into these games before i lay anything on them but i like all these so far. wait till injury reports come out tomorrow afternoon.
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DoGGz
Old 10-18-2005, 10:38 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB
Yeah i like alot this week. i am looking at some of the same games you are.
Im on
KC+1.5
Pitt pck
49ers +13
Bills +3
Denver +2

and you are making me lean towards a SD play.

Going to check more into these games before i lay anything on them but i like all these so far. wait till injury reports come out tomorrow afternoon.
Den KC and SD don't have any real injuries from last week, I was watching all of them play. Watch out for the Niners, they have little to no offence which means they aren't likely to backdoor cover, and Washington's offence is more powerful then people are giving them credit for. This is coming from a Niner fan.

Also, I don't like Pit with Maddox playing at all. It doesn't look like Big Ben will be behind center this week either. I like this play only if Maddox isn't starting.

And the Bills are playing so inconsistant I don't know where to put them. Like poker, if I don't know where I'm at I just fold.
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Eric
Old 10-18-2005, 10:54 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I agree that the Chargers are better than their 3-3 record indicates. Seeing LT run, pass and receive for touchdowns over the weekend was amazing.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 10-18-2005, 11:00 PM #6 (permalink)  
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If maddox starts, the cinnci game would become a lock for cinnci.

Big Ben starts or else the season is over for Steeler fans.

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a500lbgorilla
Old 10-19-2005, 01:59 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Roethlisberger is playing, I'd definitly try to get some money on the Steelers as a dog with Roethlisberger.

-'rilla

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ensign_lee
Old 10-19-2005, 03:00 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Where'd you hear this, 'Rilla?

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DoGGz
Old 10-19-2005, 10:20 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Roethlisberger is playing, I'd definitly try to get some money on the Steelers as a dog with Roethlisberger.

-'rilla
Roethlisberger is starting this week. That being said. I still don't like Pit at the Bengels as much as I like any of the 3 plays I have above. I don't like betting more then 10 units in any weekend, and if I were looking to wager more, then I'd probably just up my bets on the plays I have.

Be very wary of the Bengels, they are a type of team that will give the Steelers problems.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 10-20-2005, 03:30 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doggz
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Roethlisberger is playing, I'd definitly try to get some money on the Steelers as a dog with Roethlisberger.

-'rilla
Roethlisberger is starting this week. That being said. I still don't like Pit at the Bengels as much as I like any of the 3 plays I have above. I don't like betting more then 10 units in any weekend, and if I were looking to wager more, then I'd probably just up my bets on the plays I have.

Be very wary of the Bengels, they are a type of team that will give the Steelers problems.

i think the opposite is true. i live in cinci and i never understand why teams just dont line up and run the ball non stop. every time they rush its 4 yards, 7 yards, 5 yards. I think the Parker/Bettis combo wears cinci's line down. Cinci is 21st in the league in rushing defense. The steelers rushing game is 13th in the league averaging 120 yards a game. I think this combo, along with rothlesburgers ability to control a game and not make any stupid plays gives the steelers a win. Ive said it before and ill say it again, ill take the steelers vs anyone in the leauge if they are getting points.
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ensign_lee
Old 10-20-2005, 03:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I'd take the spread on Indy of anything 17+ (spread 16.5). That's slightly better than even money. The Texans D (And I know my D) can't pressure any quarterback at all, not even JP LOSMAN, for crying out loud. Because of that, our secondary can't really do anything.

Plus, did you see Alexander and company run over our defense last week for 300+ yards ON THE GROUND?!?!

And then the offensive line in Houston is just horrible too. We are not going to even remotely be able to outlast the Colts in a shootout or even keep it within 17 points. Freeney / Mathis are absolutely going to DESTROY David Carr. Look for 7+ sacks in this game.

I'd be tempted to make it 20+ points, but the payout difference isn't that much, so I thought I'd keep it slightly safe.

I'm also kind of tempted to bet on the over with this game, seeing as the Colts are NEVER going to have to punt the ball, but I'm slightly hesitant about that. I'm not the best judge of over/under bets.



And as far as the KC vs Miami game goes, I was looking into Miami's schedule previously, and I think that they've done fairly well this year. You can't just automatically discount that first game against the Broncos either. I think that the point spread on this game is more the fact that the Dolphins are better than that the Chiefs have fallen. That being said, I still like the Chiefs in this game; just don't bet the farm on them.

Conversely, I'd totally bet the farm on Indy 17+ against the Texans. I love my Texans, but I have to face facts; we are going to get our asses handed to us...MAJORLY.

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UG
Old 10-20-2005, 05:00 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I'm a Chiefs fan from Kansas City, and I'm not feeling it this weekend against the Dolphins. The Chiefs are like 0-8 lifetime against them in Miami. They may not be the best team right now, but the Chiefs have taken some STRONG teams into Miami (when the Dolphins were down) and gotten their asses kicked in the past.

The Chiefs didn't impress me much against the Redskins...I'm thinking the Chiefs go down this weekend.


 
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DoGGz
Old 10-20-2005, 09:43 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Ultimate George
I'm a Chiefs fan from Kansas City, and I'm not feeling it this weekend against the Dolphins. The Chiefs are like 0-8 lifetime against them in Miami. They may not be the best team right now, but the Chiefs have taken some STRONG teams into Miami (when the Dolphins were down) and gotten their asses kicked in the past.

The Chiefs didn't impress me much against the Redskins...I'm thinking the Chiefs go down this weekend.
The Chiefs won by 7 vs a very underrated Redskins team. Miami has looked sloppy in the past 3 weeks. By the way, the game has been moved up to Friday.
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UG
Old 10-20-2005, 10:54 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Yup, and moving the game up to Friday, I think, bodes well for the Kansas City Chiefs. They have a team full of veterens, so they can just roll with the punches. Plus, they can play it off like an "us against the world" type of thing since they're having to travel on game day.

I think the biggest thing is that they won't have time to think about anything. Their offense has been struggling this year (compared to previous years), so not having time to prepare they'll be able to just go out and do it...instead of overthinking and putting pressure on themselves.


 
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DoGGz
Old 10-21-2005, 03:11 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Ultimate George
Yup, and moving the game up to Friday, I think, bodes well for the Kansas City Chiefs. They have a team full of veterens, so they can just roll with the punches. Plus, they can play it off like an "us against the world" type of thing since they're having to travel on game day.

I think the biggest thing is that they won't have time to think about anything. Their offense has been struggling this year (compared to previous years), so not having time to prepare they'll be able to just go out and do it...instead of overthinking and putting pressure on themselves.
Offence is improving also over the last few weeks.
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DoGGz
Old 10-23-2005, 11:46 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Man, what a huge weekend for me. Almost went perfect, but my only lose was my 1 unit play on the Texans under 14.5 total.

KC +2 WIN +3
DEN +2 WIN +3
Colts -14.5 WIN +3
Colts OVER 30.5 WIN +2
Chargers +4 WIN +2
Colts ML WIN +1
Texans UNDER 14.5 -1
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jmrogers7
Old 10-24-2005, 12:11 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Had $20 on the West Virginia/South Florida game but since it got postponed I got my bet back. So, I decided to play another "what the fuck" parlay with the $20 that I got back form the postponement. Glad I did!!!

#4676473 4 Team PARLAY
$ 20.00 wagered to win $ 230.00 at 10/21/2005 00:01
Odds : 11.50 to 1 PARLAY
WIN $ 230.00
10/23/2005 13:05 NFL INDIANAPOLIS to Win -15(-110)
INDIANAPOLIS 38 HOUSTON 20
status : WIN
10/23/2005 13:05 NFL WASHINGTON to Win -13(-110)
SAN FRANCISCO 17 WASHINGTON 52
status : WIN
10/23/2005 16:20 NFL CHICAGO to Win -1(-110)
BALTIMORE 6 CHICAGO 10
status : WIN
10/23/2005 13:05 NFL Point Total Over 45(-110)
INDIANAPOLIS 38 HOUSTON 20
status : WIN


And, yes, I know the parlay is a sucker bet. But, I said in a previous post that I like to just drop a small bet on one every once in a while for the hell of it.
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DoGGz
Old 10-24-2005, 04:11 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by "jmrogers7[b
$ 20.00 wagered to win $ 230.00[/b]
Just so you know, it's more important to tell us you bet in units. If you are betting $5 per unit then this is a huge win for you. If you are betting $100 per unit then this is just 'meh'. You just bet for fun, that's cool, but you should decide what your 'average' bet is.
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jmrogers7
Old 10-24-2005, 02:07 PM #19 (permalink)  
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I always hated the "unit" thing but I understand why people like to use it. For what it's worth, I would say that my unit is $20 so this was a 1 unit play for me.

Also, I was just copy/pasting the output from my sportsbook into the message to save typing time so that is why the actual money bet was displayed.

That being the case, I normally bet anywhere between 1-2 units. No, I'm certainly not a big-timer. I can't justify betting too much on something over which I have no control. However, it is definitely something I like to do because it makes sports in general more enjoyable for me. I like the action!
"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun
 
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