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two-part post about bet365 bonus whoring.

  
 
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nomofoshobro
Old 02-04-2007, 09:07 AM     Post subject: two-part post about bet365 bonus whoring. #1 (permalink)  
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part 1:
so i am whoring bet365's $200 bonus, and i noticed that alot of the casino bonus whoring sites say one should play blackjack surender. however, wizard of odds shows that BJ surrender has a HA of 0.39%, while Pontoon has a HA of 0.38% and BJ switch has a HA of 0.17%! i read a bit about switch and it seems to be very complicated. is the reasoning behind not playing switch due to the time factor involved in playing a more complicated game?

part 2:
how much increased variance does one run into when playing $1 on 5 spots as opposed to just $1 on 1 spot. i tried to find this info but was unsuccessful. i figured it would almost even out since the dealer would win all your bets sometimes and you would win all the bets when the dealer busted.......but i know that just can't be right.
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swiggidy
Old 02-04-2007, 03:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Part 1: If surrender can be played from a chart do it, that's a big edge difference

Part 2: Use this calc
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

below 2 std has a 2.5% chance
5 at a time is 2.5% below -$150 (so you win $50 of the bonus)
1 at a time is 2.5% below -$30 (so you win $170 of the bonus)

Five $1 bets at a time is less variance then one $5 bet, way less. The only problem with your reasoning is sometimes you go busto before dealer does. So you may only have 3 of 5 hands in play when dealer busts. Additionally, the very fact that you win or loose 5 at a time instead of 1 at a time would increase variance (the canceling out part is the eV, which does stay the same)
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pokerroomace
Old 02-04-2007, 04:40 PM #3 (permalink)  
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casinobonuspages says that blackjack is the lowest HA game allowed. is casinobonuspages not a good site to use? i went bust playing blackjack at $8 a bet at bet 365.

playing 5 hands at a time doesn't even speed things up. if the number of hands you can play in 10 minutes singlehanded or multihanded - you should find that singlehanded is quicker

in "options" you can increase the game speed btw
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swiggidy
Old 02-04-2007, 05:57 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
casinobonuspages says that blackjack is the lowest HA game allowed. is casinobonuspages not a good site to use?
Some forms of BJ have a better edge. I haven't analyzed that site, but I see no reason not to trust it. Obv you should pick the lowest HA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
playing 5 hands at a time doesn't even speed things up. if the number of hands you can play in 10 minutes singlehanded or multihanded - you should find that singlehanded is quicker
Multi-handed seemed faster to me. Partially because I didn't have to consult the chart as much (i.e. dealer shows 8, ok here's what I do with all 5 of my hands). This should be easy to test, play 100 hands single, time it, play 20 hands, time it (or 500 and divide by 5). Compare.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
in "options" you can increase the game speed btw
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I Like Pie
Old 02-04-2007, 07:42 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Casinobonuspages.com is a very good site but I always check wizardofodds.com to see the charts and which game has the lowest HA.

I don't always pick the game with the lowest HA, other factors come into play. BJ has lower variance than Pontoon so if there is not a big difference in the HA I'll pick the game with the lower variance. Also, sometimes the house has a larger minimum wager for low HA games. I think Cryptologic single deck BJ has a min wager of $25, I'll play thier other BJ that has a larger HA just so I can bet less a hand.

I personally only play one hand at a time. Playing multiple hands at a time doesn't seems to speed things up for me.
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nomofoshobro
Old 02-05-2007, 06:10 AM #6 (permalink)  
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thanks for the replies.

i figured it was better to play a game that was easy and fast.....BJ surrender defiitely is that game. i was just curious if it made sense to play anything else. like i said in the original post, BJ switch has a HA of 0.17%, but on wizard of odds he says it is a very complicated to play exactly right to acheive this %.

as far as playing multiple hands......i definitely think it is faster, but i started experiencing the - variance and went back to one spot.
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nomofoshobro
Old 02-05-2007, 08:14 AM #7 (permalink)  
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swig,
i was just looking closer at your post about the blackjack calculator. where are your numbers coming from? i input it like so:

BJ surrender - 200 - 4800 - 1 - 1 (or 5)

and it returns these numbers.
EV - 181.76
Chance of gain - 0.993
1 Standard Deviation - 107.46 to 256.06
2 Standard Deviations - 33.17 to 330.35

i understand most of this, but what is the "2 Standard Deviations"?
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