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Hungryman316
Old 01-26-2006, 03:17 PM     Post subject: Thursday's Card #1 (permalink)  
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Anybody see anything great out there? I really need to bounce back with some solid picks after last night's monstrocity. I'm thinkin' UVA at home (where they've been playin really well) with +11 looks appealing.
What do yall think about that?
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metaxy6
Old 01-26-2006, 04:19 PM #2 (permalink)  
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My early looks aren't really getting anywhere. Don't like this card too much.
Hungry, I take it you mean VTech + 11 v Duke. Haven't looked close, but Duke's had a nice stretch of practice and might be in statement mode. Tech is 2-5 ATS home, but they do play tough d.

Leaning toward N Texas -2 at home v Troy. Troy can shoot some lights out, but N Texas moved their top guard to the wing and now has a quick team that should defend them well. They should outscore Troy in the paint and outboard them. They're deeper, more experienced, and good from FT line. Only big thing against it is Troy's excellent ATS results.

Going to take a look at Austin Peay and some west coast games.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 01-26-2006, 04:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Found some value

So far im on
Washington -1: 1 unit
WKU -11: 1 unit
UCLA +1: 1.5 units

waiting to see what my books line is on Montana St but if its 2 im taking them for 1 unit

was also considering
Nevada -4 (think they are about to break their slump)
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metaxy6
Old 01-26-2006, 06:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I'm still not seeing it tonight.
Might go along on that Nevada pick, B. Might hit Washington.
That's about it.

<<edit>>
If N Texas line drops back down under 3, I'll get on it.
And might hit NIU -6.5 at CMU. CMU looks awful.

It's my first look at these teams, but here's what I'm seeing in WU/Cal: Cal's true center Hardin - even more than Powe - spells trouble for WU here. When they faced WashSt. and their top 40 center Cowgill, they were outrebounded for the only time this year, and they lost.
Hardin is bigger and apparently better than Cowgill, and Cal's lineup is overall bigger and more experienced than Wash St. Against that caliber a true center and big tough forwards, WU's long 6'6 and 6'7 guys suddenly don't look so mean. Cal also shoots well at home, and WU gives up 3's otr.
At any rate, should be a good one. On Fox, I think...
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kling
Old 01-26-2006, 08:37 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Tonight I have 3 games, I could possibly add 2 more...

Va. Commonwealth -5
Pacific -9
UCLA +1

VA. Commonwealth is 22-14 ATS in road lined games since '01-'02 (4-3 this year), and was 7-3 ATS in Janurary games LY. Delaware is just plain awful.

More to come..
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Grand_MasterB
Old 01-26-2006, 08:56 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Metaxy: nothing wrong with not takin a game in a night.. if you arent feeling it then just lay off...

dosnt seem to be anything real great out there.. im just stickin with those three
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metaxy6
Old 01-26-2006, 10:53 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Ya B - looks like the real values of early conference play are kind of over and the games are getting tougher.
Plus, I was out of coffee this morning.
2 small plays tonight -
Denver -3 1 u
Northeastern -5 1u

Denver keeps trying to tell me that they're not that good a good team, but I just don't believe them yet. They're back home, they're rested, and they need a game.

Northeastern is the better team. GSt is packed w/seniors, but they should let NE get points. GSt will need to hit big 3's to cover here, imo.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 01-27-2006, 12:14 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Had a good night last night for not much of a card

Hit
Western Kentucky: +1 unit
Montana St: +1 unit
UCLA: +1.5 units

Lost on
Washington:-1 unit

overall a +2.5 unit night

Brings me to

25-17
+11.5

as usuall i wont play anything on fridays... im going out of town tonight... i hope i get back in time tomorrow to get in on the early games for saturday
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metaxy6
Old 01-27-2006, 12:49 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Nice night B.
2-0 here.
+2 u
ytd+ 3.5 u
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Grand_MasterB
Old 01-27-2006, 03:18 PM #10 (permalink)  
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nice Metaxy... you are starting to get it rolling...im going to have to keep tailing you more in the future!
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kling
Old 01-28-2006, 01:08 AM #11 (permalink)  
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What's the general rule for as far as units go? 1 unit equals?

1-2 last night..tough game for VCU.

18-10-1 YTD
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metaxy6
Old 01-28-2006, 03:40 PM #12 (permalink)  
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There's no general rule, Kilng - just whatever your stakes are.
Your basic unit could be $5 or $500, but either way you adjust # units played in proportion to your confidence in the outcome.
I don't mind saying that I'm basically at micro stakes ($15 unit) while I gain confidence in my ability to handicap NCAA. I'm planning to raise it up next week and hit a bonus at a new sportsbook.

There's some good tips on BR management in the stickies (like what proportion of your BR to place on any single bet or in any single night).
B also had a nice post about it, but it may have been washed out in the server tsunami.
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kling
Old 01-28-2006, 06:04 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metaxy6
There's no general rule, Kilng - just whatever your stakes are.
Your basic unit could be $5 or $500, but either way you adjust # units played in proportion to your confidence in the outcome.
I don't mind saying that I'm basically at micro stakes ($15 unit) while I gain confidence in my ability to handicap NCAA. I'm planning to raise it up next week and hit a bonus at a new sportsbook.

There's some good tips on BR management in the stickies (like what proportion of your BR to place on any single bet or in any single night).
B also had a nice post about it, but it may have been washed out in the server tsunami.
Thanks for taking the time to make this post. I'm probably at similar stakes as you are... $25 would probably be my max bet right now, as I am gaining confidence as well.
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