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metaxy6
Old 02-02-2006, 04:08 PM     Post subject: Thurdsday NCAA #1 (permalink)  
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We've got some momentum, so let's keep it rolling today fellas.
What's out there ?

So far, I'm liking:
Georgia St -3
Hofstra -2

Other looks:
La Tech -1
N Texas +4.5
Denver -2
Youngstown St -4.5
USC +3
Oregon St +3
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Hungryman316
Old 02-02-2006, 04:14 PM #2 (permalink)  
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hofstra may be a solid pick but i'm lookin at xavier -3.5 and maryland -3.5. let me know what yall think.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-02-2006, 04:21 PM #3 (permalink)  
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You beat me too it metaxy but i LOVE this North Texas game
I already threw down 3 units on it at +5 and might go some more, trying to make a big run here

Hofstra game im on small too. i like this spot for them. two fairly even teams and they are at home. i think they should win by about 5 or so.

might get on xavier later... seems everyone is on them wich suprises me. But ill tell you xavier is pumped for this game. They were talking about it 3 days ago and now Dicky V is going to be here! these players will be fired up. Only thing that worries me is the Cintas center has been DEAD this year. The supposed biggest game of the year with Cinci was a joke. These fans suck. Always sitting down. Hardly cheering. I was shocked. Hopefully the ESPN camera's will bring out a different crowd tonight.

Not sure about that maryland game. I hate bettin on UNC games this year as they are such a young and talented team and therefore can blow anyteam out by 20 or easily lose by 20. seems like you just never know what team will show up.

my plays so far
North Texas +5: 3 units
Hofstra -2: 1 unit

NCAA BB YTD
38-25
+19.5 units
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Hungryman316
Old 02-02-2006, 04:54 PM #4 (permalink)  
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my picks so far:
Maryland/UNC game over 158 for 1 u - should be a high scoring game.
Arizona -2.5 for 1 u - bought half a point.

thinking about whether to jump on the north texas game because everybody loves it so much.
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metaxy6
Old 02-02-2006, 04:57 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Ha - I just knew you'd be on them B !
Go Mean Green!!
Dang Hungry those are like 2 of the hardest games to figure out - I have no idea what to expect in either one...
Waiting on your leans in the Horizon B, if you got any.

So far:
Hofstra -2 1.5 u
Georgia St. -2 (bought.5) 2 u
N Texas + 4.5 3 u

All of these lines are moving fast, so tried to get on what I felt early.

Logic on GSt pick - they have superior guard play and decent frontcourt looks even better w/ 1 JMad F def. out, 1 F doubtful, and another F questionable. This is a team that's already giving up 51% fg and 81 ppg in conference...
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Hungryman316
Old 02-02-2006, 05:01 PM #6 (permalink)  
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i dont get it - what do yall see in north texas????
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metaxy6
Old 02-02-2006, 05:21 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Hungry, I wouldn't pressure anybody into a pick. Go with what you feel after your look, man.
I like them because they're probably only getting points here due to their performance on the road. But they're in the heat of the conference race right now, and they should come out hard in the first game of their road swing. LaLaf is 0-5 ATS home and 0-8 ATS conf, probably getting too much credit from the oddsmakers for a few players on their roster.
N Texas is an up-tempo team and they should be able to play their game here. Especially if LaLaf's top guard and leading scorer, Mitchell, is hobbled by his recent ankle injury (he's listed as questionable, but it would be surprising if he didn't play). NTex is 2-1 ATS when the total is 150-159.5 - that's the total where they're able to play their game.

N Texas hasn't played great d fg% wise, but LaLaf doesn't shoot all that well anyways (39.6% last 5 and 28.3% from3. NTex forces lots TO's and gets points off them. LaLaf has a -5 TO differential in the conference.
LaLaf would appear to play decent D - only givingup 40.2% fg. But that's largely on the stringth of their interior d. When you see that they give up close to 40% from 3 pt, it shows that they're not a very good perimeter d team. LaLaf has some long 6-7 types who would conceivably cause trouble for NTex shooters, but their mostly down the depth chart.

Another thing is that LaLaf is not very good from the ft line, which also dulls the home edge.
Last game (at NTex): 86-79 NTex.
La-Laf had a great shooting night (56.4%), but only went 30% from 3 and 55% from the ft line. They also committed 23 to's (-10) and gave up 44 rebs (-9). NTex got 19 off rebs that game...
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metaxy6
Old 02-02-2006, 06:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Any adds ?
I'm in the mood for action, so added:
Denver -2 3 u

Looking at Northeastern -11.5
Northern Arizona at pk or -1
under 130 in Wofford/AppSt game
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-02-2006, 07:15 PM #9 (permalink)  
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wow nice write up metaxy. impressive. here is why i like North Texas. First of all they are a decent to average team while ULL is just a bad team. Secondly NT is coming off a loss and lately they have been very strong in games after a loss. Third i always value conference play above almost eveything else and just comparing the similiar teams in conference that both have played NT is ahead. i really thought the line on this game would me more around NT -2. NT knows they need this game to stay in the hunt for the Sun Belt conference title. I just cant figure this one out. Im looking for injuries but cant find one. I think NT wins this game outright.. i might even get a bet on the moneyline.


As far as the horizon league goes im gettin interested in teh Wisc GB line. Wisc GB has been rolling lately against the spread and Butler has been going the opposite way.. getting this many points i just might not be able to pass it up.
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Hungryman316
Old 02-02-2006, 07:20 PM #10 (permalink)  
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aight im NT at +5 for 1 u for now (bought half a point for insurrance) i might put more on later
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-02-2006, 07:32 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Ok here is where im at

NT +5 : 3.5 untis
Hofstra -2: 1.5 units
Wisc GB +13: 1 unit
Denver -2: 1 unit (tailing you met!)

lot of action tonight for me... i feel like the hot streak is continuing tonight!
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kling
Old 02-02-2006, 08:50 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Wow, great find on the North Texas game, boys! I'm definitely jumping right on with you. I mean, LA-Laf. is absolutely terrible ATS. I think I'm only going to go with these 2:

North Texas +4.5
Samford -1.5
Long Beach St. +2.5

Samford is a very good cover team this year, at 12-6 ATS (7-3 on the road), while Tenn. St. is far from that (8-9 ATS, 2-5 at home). I like Samford to win this game with ease.

I did a little more research and I added Long Beach St. to the card... I don't know, I just couldn't find too much more that I liked. LBS housed Northridge by 11 and are a pretty good road ATS team (6-3). Northridge is 3-10-1 ATS (1-3-1 at home).

26-14-1 YTD
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Frizzle02
Old 02-02-2006, 09:48 PM #13 (permalink)  
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1) BET ID=39412877
Straight Wager 02/02/06 17:47 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
TennesseeTech
TennesseeMartin 02/02/06 (21:05 ET)
TennesseeTech -2

2) BET ID=39412820
Straight Wager 02/02/06 17:46 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
Samford
TennesseeSt 02/02/06 (20:30 ET)
Samford -1.5 (-120)
Bought 0.5 point(s)

3) BET ID=39412785
Straight Wager 02/02/06 17:46 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
Arizona
USC 02/02/06 (22:30 ET)
Arizona -3

4) BET ID=39412760
Straight Wager 02/02/06 17:45 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
NorthTexas
ULLafayette 02/02/06 (20:00 ET)
NorthTexas +4.5

5) BET ID=39412701
Straight Wager 02/02/06 17:45 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
WisconsinGB
Butler 02/02/06 (19:00 ET)
WisconsinGB +13
<------That was my chemistry prof.
 
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metaxy6
Old 02-02-2006, 10:39 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Alright, let's bring it on home...

Added
N.Arizona - 1 1.5 u
Montana -6.5 (bought .5) 1 u
+ the
GSt 2u
Hofstra 1.5 u
Denver 3 u
NTexas 4u

GL on Samford Kling - like it but just can't fit one more road team onto this card!
I'm laying off USC, so here's to hoping yall collect on Arizona.

Was hovering over 'confirm' button on Montana St +2 and Sac St +4, but really trying to avoid the late play leak. And since my book won't let me buy down George Mason - that's it.

<<edit>> Line moved so added:
George masn -8 1 u
YoungstownSt -2 2 u
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metaxy6
Old 02-03-2006, 02:38 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Yikes. Not shaping up real good.
In other words, bad.
Bound to happen.
At least yall got some Wi GB and Samford covers and what not - at least I got a push and a win somewhere maybe...
Got a chance in some late games, apart from that pick up the pieces and get back to it on Saturday.
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kling
Old 02-03-2006, 03:55 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Yeah, 2-1 night... I'm pleased with that.
aka wildwest15
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-03-2006, 11:36 AM #17 (permalink)  
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wow took a beating tonight.. wasnt home watching the updates for the north texas game so im not really sure what went on... I have no clue how they could have lost by that much.. oh well

went 1-2-1 on the night
down 3.5 units

Brings me to 39-27-1 on the year
+16 units (still got my goal of 15 by saturday!)

as usual no plays tonight... hopefully be back saturday with alot of winners
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metaxy6
Old 02-03-2006, 01:36 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Ya that was a whoopin on NT. Seems like foul trouble and 29% shooting did them in. 5 team assists doesn't look so hot either. Sorry about Denver, B. 0-10 from 3 is not going to get it done.

I threw 1.5 u at USC and 1 u at the Cal under 130 to try and get some back. Ended up 4-5-1 for -5 u. Wrong presses.

The main thing that's caused trouble the last couple days is the better teams not getting it done. At this point in conf play, you'd think there's enough info (and enough on the line for those teams) to really like the favorites against the cellar dwellers. But games that looked worth a press -NTex, Denver, and even Montana, Youngstown St, and Kansas St - were all su upsets. 4-5 of those favs were otr, but you'd think at this point that the better team's edges would overtake that. Don't know if it's just that point in the season, or if home dogs near the bottom of the conf standings are worth a 2nd look going forward...
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