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stevedonel
Old 02-01-2005, 02:20 AM     Post subject: swingin' #1 (permalink)  
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Thats exactly what my Empire bankroll has been doing the past week. It's starting to get comical. This is the kiddie pool so all the BB numbers are dollars

1-25 +26 in 501 hands (+5.14BB/100)
1-26 -59 in 832 hands (-5.16BB/100)
1-27 +68 in 468 hands (+14.15BB/100)
1-28 +14 in 431 hands (+3.25BB/100) woohoo two days in a row!!
1-29 -71 in 878 hands (-8.00BB/100) part of this was due to me tilting
1-30 +2 in 298 hands (+0.59BB/100)
1-31 +110 869 hands (+12.66BB/100) that one was fun

So thats 4353 hands at 2.48BB/100 for $105.90 profit.

The thing I dont understand is that my SD, over the 35,600 hands I have in PT for this level, is 17.0; my winrate of those 35K is 3.18BB/100. The SD for these 7 days is only 15.8, but these 7 days have had the largest swings I've ever seen. Shouldnt the SD numbers be reversed?

Now the bad part that I just noticed, the swings have been getting progressively larger each session. Hmmm, not good at all; gotta put a stop to that. Except for the tilt session on 1-29, I think most of this was due to regular varience. I hope the swings calm down a little bit.
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-01-2005, 02:28 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 How are your aggression numbers?

The more aggressive you are post flop the higher your swings are. You've realized that you play with a bunch of dumbasses so you've decided to raise more. Nothing wrong with that.

Your numbers look good. At the micros though LHE is quite swingy.


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stevedonel
Old 02-01-2005, 02:45 AM #3 (permalink)  
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True, I have been working on my aggro. I've always known they were dumbasses, now I'm just pushing them around more.

Overall #s
VP$IP 17.14
PFR 5.36
Steal blinds 13.41

Aggro
PF 0.39
F 2.16
T 2.11
R 1.73
Total 1.04





This week's #s
VP$IP 14.61
PFR 6.24
Blind steal 17.42

Aggro
PF 0.65
F 2.91
T 2.68
R 1.89
Total 1.45


Generally, I've been tightening up my hand selection in early position and raising more in late position. Its the stuff you read in every book, but Ididnt really understand until I started playing with more aggression.

Thanks for pointing out the connection between the aggression and swings. Makes sense
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-01-2005, 02:51 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 re calculate your agg numbers but take the preflop numbers out. Will significantly increase it.

(there should be an option somewhere, you might have to dig for it)


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bigred
Old 02-01-2005, 06:21 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Fnord
Old 02-01-2005, 09:03 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
The more aggressive you are post flop the higher your swings are. You've realized that you play with a bunch of dumbasses so you've decided to raise more. Nothing wrong with that.
Not quite true.

Proper aggression with decrease your variance because you'll play bigger pots against smaller fields and be more likely to win without showdown.

Playing too many hands
Making mistakes
Playing against loose players

...all will increase your variance. David Ross noticed this first hand when he kicked up his aggro.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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