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Swiggidy's -eV bets: NFL Week 4

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swiggidy

09-27-2006, 03:45 AM Post subject: Swiggidy's -eV bets: NFL Week 4

#1 (permalink)

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Posts: 3,777

In the spirit of zook, my background...

This is the 2nd year I have bet on pro-football. We had a weekly pickem pool at my co-op and I have been successful picking the winner for several years. I am primarily betting on sports for my own amusement.

I despise the line so most of my bets are parlays and money line bets. With the sense that zook has brought I've added teasers. My sportsbook BR started at $115, and is now $139. My unit is $5, this is terrible BR management but I don't care cuz the roll is replaceable if I so choose.

I will be making a redonkarflmaoicious bet every week that I feel like it. I don't recommend anyone make this bet, it is extremely -eV. I could go 0-16 with it, and I wouldn't care.

Current record:
Line: 1-4
Money: 2-0
o/u: 0-1
Parlay: 3-1
Teaser: 1-1
redonkarflmaoicious: 0-1

My teaser bets:
Miami +2.5 <-- sorry ensign but your boys suck
Carolina -1.5

Dallas -3.5
Min +7

San Diego +3.5
Indy -3

Swiggidy's redonkarflmaoicious bet of the week:
7 team teaser:
Miami +2.5
Carolina -1.5
Dallas -3.5
Min +7
San Diego +3.5
Indy -3
Rams +1

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ensign_lee

09-27-2006, 04:06 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Hey: If you haven't placed that Miami teaser bet yet, DON'T DO IT!

NEVER CROSS THE LINE (the number 0) on a teaser. It KILLS you, because of all the extra juice you're paying.

You'd get a better payout with
Miami M/L
and Carolina M/L
than that.

Plus, with a line of +2.5, Miami STILL has to win pretty much straight up. If you're dead set on teasing it, tease it another point and get to +3 at least.

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elipsesjeff

09-27-2006, 04:25 AM

#3 (permalink)

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I'm confused lee, why do I pay more juice if I cross the zero? Isn't the teaser bet even money anyway if I use Mansion?

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swiggidy

09-27-2006, 04:25 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Thanks ensign, it's too late now but I"ll do better next week.

My parlay pays -110 FYI. I'm still with sportsbook.com

because I have a small bonus to clear. It will only take a couple more weeks, but it effectivly makes the juice -105.

I'll follow your advice and switch after that.

ensign_lee

09-27-2006, 06:03 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I'm confused lee, why do I pay more juice if I cross the zero? Isn't the teaser bet even money anyway if I use Mansion?

Sorry: should have explained that better.

You're paying the juice on a teaser to cross 6 points, regardless of which 6 points.

The reason that teasing across 7 and 3 is more +EV than teasing anywhere else is because at most sporstbooks, if you try to buy on and off the 3, books will charge you 20 to 25 more cents (a change of -3.5 (-110) to -3 (-135)). Conversely, at Pinnacle, you can move on and off the two for like 4 cents (-2.5 (-110) would then be -2 (-112) ).

That's why it doesn't pay to tease across 0. Because by teasing over 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 (in either direction), you are paying 'excess' juice; and by teasing over 3 and 7 (and 4 in some instances), you are getting 'discounted' juice. The latter is why these are considered +EV by some people.

It's not that you're paying more juice. It's more like you're not getting enough value for the juice you're paying. Make sense?

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zook

09-27-2006, 08:18 AM

#6 (permalink)

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As I understand it, it's also not just about juice. In swiggidy's Miami tease, he went from Texas +4.5 to Miami +2.5. The only somewhat "common" margins of victory he gained in this were Texas by 3, Texas by 1 and Miami by 1. Victories by 1 are relatively rare, while victories by 3 and 7 are relatively common. So if you tease a team and the line crosses both 3 and 7, you're getting good value because those are likely margins of victory that you just made pay for your team, instead of the opponent. Did that make sense? Of course, this is the whole reason sportsbooks charge more juice to get off the 3 and the 7.

swiggidy

09-27-2006, 05:57 PM

#7 (permalink)

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^^^ this is what I initially thought ensign meant. Sportsbook does not charge more to get off the 3 or the 7, it's -110 globally, which is why ensing recommended I dump it.

zook

09-27-2006, 06:12 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Sportsbook does not charge more to get off the 3 or the 7, it's -110 globally, which is why ensing recommended I dump it.

I'm confused... not charging more to get off the 3 or 7 is a good thing. If the line's JAC -3 for -110 juice and you try to buy a 1/2-point to make it JAC -2.5, do they only charge you -120? That would be a great deal. At a lot of sportsbooks (i.e. BetWWTS) it would be -130 or even -140 because you're buying a 1/2-point to get off the 3. If you bought a 1/2-point to get off some other number at these sportsbooks (i.e. BetWWTS) then the juice only goes from -110 to -120, which is standard I think.

My guess is that ensign_lee told you to leave Sportsbook because they don't offer any straight lines with juice less than -110. Pinnacle always has lower juice, and Mansion usually has lower through their Sports Exchange (but not as low as Pinnacle), not to mention the even-money teasers.

swiggidy

09-27-2006, 07:25 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zook

Buying 1/2 a point always goes from -110 to -120. On Friday they do half price juice, I'll check these and see how the juice applies then.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zook

My guess is that ensign_lee told you to leave Sportsbook because they don't offer any straight lines with juice less than -110. Pinnacle always has lower juice, and Mansion usually has lower through their Sports Exchange (but not as low as Pinnacle), not to mention the even-money teasers.

Yes

zook

09-27-2006, 07:43 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Buying 1/2 a point always goes from -110 to -120. On Friday they do half price juice, I'll check these and see how the juice applies then.

Nice. Anytime you like a game that's on the 7 or 3, imo you should pay the extra juice to get it off. Especially if it's 1/2 price!

swiggidy

10-02-2006, 03:15 AM Post subject: Re: Swiggidy's -eV bets: NFL Week 4

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

My teaser bets:
Miami +2.5 <-- covered by .5
Carolina -1.5 <-- covered by .5

Dallas -3.5
Min +7

San Diego +3.5 <-- covered by .5
Indy -3

Swiggidy's redonkarflmaoicious bet of the week:
7 team teaser:
Miami +2.5
Carolina -1.5
Jax +3 <-- dammit, I wish my OP was correct
Min +7
San Diego +3.5
Indy -3
Rams +1

I also put 1 unit on the Seattle money line.

So this week, +0 units

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Swiggidy's -eV bets: NFL Week 4

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