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DoGGz
Old 01-23-2006, 10:41 PM     Post subject: SuperBowl #1 (permalink)  
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We don't have thread yet?

Anyways, I'm sitting waiting for the line to shift more towards Pitt, so I can bet on the Hawks. Whatever you do, don't bet on Pitt greater then -4. The Hawks will not get blown out, that is for sure.

If the line gets near -5,-6 Pitt, I'll be moving 10 units on Seattle. If not, I'll just make a 1 or 2 unit play.
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DoGGz
Old 01-23-2006, 10:55 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Also, watch out for the trap. I posted about traps early in the season, and most people weren't sure what I was talking about. Here is a perfect example.

IF the line doesn't move Pitt -6+, then this game is a trap.

Everyone loves Pitt. Joe Public loves them, ESPN love them. Everyone is predicting a Pitt win. Everyone is betting on Pitt to win. Well, then the line should move... alot. If it doesn't move then Vegas is setting a trap. Maybe they want all that money back they lost this season, in one fell swoop.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 01-24-2006, 12:48 PM #3 (permalink)  
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No way the line moves to 6 without some major injury, Hassleback or Alexander. Best you might see is 4.5 but thats it.

As for this "trap" i think that is totally rediculous. There is no such thing. Vegas dosnt care who the public bets on. They want even action on both sides so they are gaurenteed money and have 0 risk. To say that they would purposely sway the public towards one side is crazy. I have talked in length with two sportsbook managers out in Vegas before about betting, setting lines and etc. They set the lines exactely where they think they will get 50/50 action and thats the way they always want it. Think about it. That would be like the casino saying just for this weekend only on this particular roulette table we will be paying 1.5 to 1 for all winning "red" bets but still paying 1-1 for winning "black" bets. It takes the edge away from them and gives it to the players.

Anyways.... as in all championship games... I either bet the Dog or i dont bet at all... I will be on Seattle in this one.
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ensign_lee
Old 01-24-2006, 03:09 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I got Pitt -3.5 at about +100 odds so far for 8 units.

Might hedge back later, depending on what happens. I just made a blind bet, knowing that the public would bet Pitt up, so I could scalp later if I needed to.

Still looking into this game, but I think that Pitt may be a bit too much for Seattle to handle.

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a500lbgorilla
Old 01-24-2006, 03:30 PM #5 (permalink)  
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The Steelers are the biggest lock in history.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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blade
Old 01-28-2006, 05:25 AM #6 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB
As for this "trap" i think that is totally rediculous. There is no such thing. Vegas dosnt care who the public bets on. They want even action on both sides so they are gaurenteed money and have 0 risk. To say that they would purposely sway the public towards one side is crazy. I have talked in length with two sportsbook managers out in Vegas before about betting, setting lines and etc. They set the lines exactely where they think they will get 50/50 action and thats the way they always want it.
Word!!! that's how it works, and not just for NFL action.
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DoGGz
Old 01-28-2006, 07:24 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB
No way the line moves to 6 without some major injury, Hassleback or Alexander. Best you might see is 4.5 but thats it.

As for this "trap" i think that is totally rediculous. There is no such thing. Vegas dosnt care who the public bets on. They want even action on both sides so they are gaurenteed money and have 0 risk. To say that they would purposely sway the public towards one side is crazy. I have talked in length with two sportsbook managers out in Vegas before about betting, setting lines and etc. They set the lines exactely where they think they will get 50/50 action and thats the way they always want it. Think about it. That would be like the casino saying just for this weekend only on this particular roulette table we will be paying 1.5 to 1 for all winning "red" bets but still paying 1-1 for winning "black" bets. It takes the edge away from them and gives it to the players.

Anyways.... as in all championship games... I either bet the Dog or i dont bet at all... I will be on Seattle in this one.
Ok, your right. I have no idea about sportsbetting or how oddsmakers make lines.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 01-28-2006, 01:48 PM #8 (permalink)  
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You're pissing money away with this bet, B.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Grand_MasterB
Old 01-28-2006, 07:08 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I probably should bet on Pitt but if i bet on championship games i almost always take the dog. Pitt is rediculously hot and dont show any signs of slowing down. They are going to have the crowd on their side but i just cant pull the trigger on them. Ill tell you what... ill take a final score of Pitt 20 Seattle 17 so we are both happy!
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Eric
Old 02-01-2006, 07:36 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB
I have talked in length with two sportsbook managers out in Vegas before about betting, setting lines and etc. They set the lines exactely where they think they will get 50/50 action and thats the way they always want it.
Well said, often times the public is amazed by oddsmakers because the line they set is very close to the actual outcome. This is nice but it isn't their number 1 goal. Their number 1 goal is to set the line at a level that gets equal amounts of money on each side without it having to move.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 02-01-2006, 07:53 PM #11 (permalink)  
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The Steelers would still be a lock at -14

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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ensign_lee
Old 02-02-2006, 05:24 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Go Steelers!

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Mike_Ann
Old 02-03-2006, 02:34 AM #13 (permalink)  

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Speaking of Winning.
you need to go back to the beginning of the season.
Quite alot of people betting at the beginning for team to win super bowl.
in AFC
most $$$$ go to INDY or NE
not too many people will buy for Pit
In NFC
Most $$$ will go to PHI and SEA
all those most most betting at the beginning is gone.....
only big chunk of SEA $$$ is still alive.
be aware that those people Bet on SEA at the beginning will start bet on PIT now as insuarance + PIT are so hot
My Pick is
PIT win but Don't cover........... Teaser anyone +6????
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ensign_lee
Old 02-03-2006, 04:10 AM #14 (permalink)  
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who are you teasing to +6? Depending on your shop, you can bring the Seahawks to +10 or +10.5. You can only tease teh Steelers down to +2 or +2.5, which is almost worthless, sine Pitt still has to pretty much win by 3 for you to cover.

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Mike_Ann
Old 02-03-2006, 05:37 PM #15 (permalink)  

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very good point.
If you Teaser then call with SEA +10.5 or 10
Pit Teaser meanless +2 or +1.5
verymuch Pit you'll loss pts
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metaxy6
Old 02-05-2006, 07:52 PM #16 (permalink)  
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With no screaming leans either way, made a small play:

2 Team Teaser #30626063
Football - NFL Lines (Game)
SUPER BOWL XL @ Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Game can be seen on ABC
(301) Seattle Seahawks +10 Sun@6:20p
(Teased 6.0 points)

Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
SUPER BOWL XL @ Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Game can be seen on ABC
(301) Seattle Seahawks vs. (302) Pittsburgh Steelers Under 53 Sun@6:20p
(Teased 6.0 points)

29-23 Steelers sounds about right.

<<edit>> shat, should have got it up to 6.5, since that's got me covered against 2 scores and it's only slight diff. in odds.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 02-06-2006, 02:48 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The Steelers are the biggest lock in history.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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DoGGz
Old 02-06-2006, 03:01 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The Steelers are the biggest lock in history.
Holding on the offence. 10 Yard penelty.

Illegal Tackle. QBs can not attempt to stop defenders. 15 Yard penelty.
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