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Starfleet Selections: NFL Playoffs

  
 
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ensign_lee
Old 01-06-2007, 04:25 AM     Post subject: Starfleet Selections: NFL Playoffs #1 (permalink)  
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Allrighty boys and girls; here we are - the NFL Playoffs.

WOoooooweeeh. It seems like just yesterday Mario Williams was drafted; but here we are. This week is what it is. With only four games to choose from, it becomes more tempting to bet every game, but remember to only choose bets with +EV.

To that end, I have the following up for tomorrow:

IND -7 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

IND -4 1st Half (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Indianapolis is NOT going to lose to Kansas City. Period. End of Story.

When the Colts want to stop the run, they can stop the run. They're getting back one of their monster run-stuffer safeties for this game too, so that should help out a lot. Think back to the Cincinnatti game - exactly how did Rudi come out of that game?

Now, that's not to say that by stopping the run, they won't be opening themselves up to bigger passes, but I doubt Herm Edwards will be able to exploit this in-game.

Everyone's been talking about the Indy defense, how they have no chance how LJ is going to rip it up for 200+ yards on the ground and Peyton will never have a chance to do anything about it. Nobody's talking about how KC's defense as of late (the last month or so) is doing just as badly, if not WORSE than Indy's. Indy is going to light up the Chiefs; you want fireworks? You'll have fireworks. All Indy is going to have to get is one stop early. One. Stop. And then Peyton will be building on a 14 point lead and Herm Edwards will panic and not know what to do.

Oh - and Pinny agrees with me. Yay! -7 (-111) while everyone else has -7 (-110). Woohoo!

Side note: where the heck are the Pinny alternate lines? Are they not available for playoffs?

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ensign_lee
Old 01-06-2007, 05:15 PM #2 (permalink)  
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'Bout time the Pinny alternate lines came up. I thought there'd be added value in those compared to the straight bets, especially for this first one:

DAL/SEA Over 53.5 (+181)
1 unit at Pinnacle

If this game goes over, it's going to go WAAAAAAAY the hell over. If goes under, it's probably going to go pretty far under, with both teams for some reason running the ball like none other.

However, I can see Seattle successfully taking advantage of a Dallas defense that has had its confidence shaken in the last month. And for Seattle's D? I know it's all that ESPN has been hyping about, but yeah...how do you guard those receivers with your #1, #2, and #3 cornerbacks out. That means you're starting your DIME cornerback at LCB!!! And they have a converted safety at RCB. What do you do for nickel and dime packages? I dunno. I guess we'll see.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-06-2007, 05:42 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Also added:

IND -10.5 (+140)
1 unit at Pinnacle

I think Pinny can cover this number easily. At least 2 TD's is not out of the question.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-06-2007, 06:02 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Also:

Two Team 6 point Teaser:
IND -1, NE -2.5 (+100)
2 units at Bodog

Allrighty. I'm off to the airport. Go Colts?

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Harry
Old 01-07-2007, 12:42 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Haha, good call on the Colts.
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zook
Old 01-07-2007, 04:21 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Nice day lee! Congrats.
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swiggidy
Old 01-07-2007, 05:12 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 yes, OMG the end of the seattle dallas game was sick
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Harry
Old 01-07-2007, 05:57 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Ugh I had SEA -2.5 =( The safety play was awesome, although I wish it was a TD.
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-07-2007, 06:12 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 Dallas couldn't have choked harder.


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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 03:00 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Thanks for the congrats, guys.

Allrighty - on to the divisional round.

BAL-3.5 (-104)
3 units at Skybook

Indianapolis played incredibly weak against KC, having to stack 8 men in the box to have a semblance of a defense. It was because KC sucked and couldn't adjust that they got pwned so hard.

Plus, home teams in the divisional round perform ridiculously well. I think they've covered at close to 70% over the past two decades or so.

Other games that I will probably hit up, but am still doing work on:
Chicago -9.5 (+101) - Matchbook - 10 units or so. This is a prime spot here. Chicago I think will demolish them; absolutely demolish them.

New Orleans -5 - 3 units. Eagles barely got by an extremely weak Giants team. I don't think they're ready for a Saints team that will be ready to rock n' roll off essentially 3 weeks of rest (between week 16 and 17, the week between the end of the season and the wild card round, and this last week). I may even upgrade this play.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 03:11 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Also, found this prop bet and think it's +EV:

Will Rex Grossman be pulled during the game?
No (-135)
1 unit at Bodog (max bet. hah)


They've stuck with him this far. I doubt they destroy his confidence by pulling him during a playoff game.

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bigspenda73
Old 01-12-2007, 04:52 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 What happens if they are up 35-0 in the 4th qtr?
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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 04:56 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
What happens if they are up 35-0 in the 4th qtr?
Then I cry. whoops...forgot about that scenario.

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Harry
Old 01-12-2007, 05:27 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Hey Lee I was wondering if could post your record for the NFL this season?

I only have money on matchbook atm, so I can't get baltimore -3.5. Is -4 +102 good?

Thanks
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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 06:09 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
Hey Lee I was wondering if could post your record for the NFL this season?
Yeah. I'll get to that soone ror later. I skipped one week, then another...and here we are. I think I'm up abut 40 units or so.

Quote:
I only have money on matchbook atm, so I can't get baltimore -3.5. Is -4 +102 good?

Thanks
I'd much rather have the -3.5 (-104) (yay free half point!), just because I believe that the half point is worth more than 4 cents (you're in essence getting -4 +100 at matchbook). But I'd still bet it at -4. Just only at 1 unit instead of 3.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-13-2007, 05:37 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Guess I shouldn't have waited. Line moved a half poitn on me; oh well...

New Orleans -5.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

I reduced this to a 3 unit play because I realized I was getting a little carried off because it was the playoffs. That, and the public is slightly on this with me at aroun 55-60% or so. Meh; I still think they win this game.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-13-2007, 06:17 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Changed my mind. Found a good line for the first half, so I'm going to hit that up as well.

New Orleans -3 (-105) - First Half
3 units at BetTrojan

Was thinking of doing this anyway, but the fact that Pinny has -3 at (-112) and BetCascade has -3 at (-115) and 5Dimes has -3 at (-120) has persuaded me to do it. I like getting this at -105...a lot.

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Harry
Old 01-14-2007, 01:46 AM #18 (permalink)  
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I took Philly (+5.5) +104.... I think Philly has a shot to win, + a decent chance of loosing by less then 5.5. Something like 24-21 Saints.
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