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gabe
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10-27-2005, 04:58 PM
Post subject: Russian roulette
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
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taken from a post on 2+2:
Lets say you were offered the chance to play Russian Roulette for 50 million if your not shot. (Only 1 try required)
The gun has 6 chambers, 1 bullet.
If you win your set for life, you could buy and do pretty much whatever you desire. If you lose your dead.
Would you accept?
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Fortune 500
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Bluffalupagus
Posts: 1,261
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That's about as good of odds as pcoket aces vs. any random hand. I'm all in.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Well, yes. But it would be a stressful time leading up to the Rouletting.
I've been thinking about what it would be like to be dead and I've convinced myself that since you would feel nothing, being nothing and not even be aware of your nothingness, dying wouldnt be so bad. But being set for life would be awesome.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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The answer is simple. Take the offer, and when the gun is in your hand for the "showdown," point it at the guy with the 50 million and quickly pull the trigger 6 times.
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Poker is freedom
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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you know, I have to vote no. As much fun as the wife and I would have with 50m, the 1/6 chance I'm giving up the chance to have likely close to as much fun living out my life as is (and I'm still planning on winning millions!) is just too high.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Damn, that's a tough one. I'd have to negotiate. Like, how much will you give me if I point the gun at 'rilla's head instead of my own? Can I get like 45 bucks or sumfin?
In all seriousness, I doubt I could go through with it. Seems like it would be worth it, looking at it abstractly, but I just don't think I'd have the cojones, to adopt a Matusowism.
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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What a sad society we live in.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
What a sad society we live in.
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that makes it easier to gamble it up with the gun, right??????
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ake
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Compton - L.A
Posts: 138
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Yes. Atleast I think so, can't be sure until someone gives me the offer for real.
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Les_Worm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2004
Location: MI
Posts: 1,697
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I didn't even have to think about it. I would not take the offer. That is playing way outside my bankroll and I have too much to lose.
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The artist formerly known as Knish
Only mediocre players are always at their best.
Phil Ivey Owns You
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ake
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Compton - L.A
Posts: 138
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Les_Worm
I didn't even have to think about it. I would not take the offer. That is playing way outside my bankroll and I have too much to lose.
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Gambool!
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Depends what value you put on your life, if you value it at under $50 million, then this is definitely +EV.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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1 in 6 shot, that's a little worse than AA vs 72o, i'll take those odds any day!
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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boost
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 706
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Les_Worm hit the nail on the head...
I would never play AA vs 72o for my entire br.. thats terrible bankroll management. But then again I would probably go sky diving for kicks and pay to do it. But I dont think I could enjoy the money knowing I put my life on it... I dont know.. bleh.. I dont think I would.. Im gonna have ag reat time in life rich or not. Im not gambling for my life for money.. just for adrenilyn rushes..
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Iconoclastic
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 324
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
Depends what value you put on your life, if you value it at under $50 million, then this is definitely +EV.
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You mean under 250 million- 1 in 6 chance of dying.
Since I feel that I can make more than 50 million with less than a 16.7% chance of dying, I don't need to take this gamble.
50 Billion on the other hand, it'd be an easy All-In.
50 million is not set for life, the average person can spend that in like 20 years if they enjoy themselves.
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What's the difference between a large cheese pizza and a poker player?
A large cheese pizza can feed a family of four.
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Zangief
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
Depends what value you put on your life, if you value it at under $50 million, then this is definitely +EV.
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If you think this proposition is "profitable" then you are actually saying:
5/6 * $50,000,000 + 1/6 * -life > 0
5 * $50,000,000 + -life > 0
5 * $50,000,000 > life
$250,000,000 > life
... or that your life is worth less than $250,000,000 to you.
I think the 1/6 chance of dying makes this easier for people to agree to, even in theory.
What if the gun had 3/6 chambers with bullets in them, making the proposition a coinflip? Then how much money would you need to do it?
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I don't think this is just about the value of life vs. the money, though. If you win you don't just get 50 mil... you get a dramatically improved life. No day job. Financial freedom. Set for retirement. To each individual this question is going to come off differently, because it depends what you do now for a living, and what, realistically, your prospects are. If you're an unskilled 30-something working as an assistant-assistant manager at Burger King with an IQ in the 80's, I'd say this is totally worth the risk. 40 more years of Burger King, 10 years as a Wal Mart greeter, and then 5 years in the old folks' home vs. being an 85/15 favorite for a nice life of wealth and luxury? Jump on it, kid!
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zangief
I think the 1/6 chance of dying makes this easier for people to agree to, even in theory.
What if the gun had 3/6 chambers with bullets in them, making the proposition a coinflip? Then how much money would you need to do it?
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What if the gun had 1 bullet but 100 chambers?
1000 chambers?
1000000 chambers?
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Poker is freedom
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frands1
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 16
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
1000000 chambers?
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Now I´ll take it.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I'd take it for 1000 or more chambers with 1 bullet. You take that great of a chance with your life (at least) for every year you drive a car to work, eat meat, live in a major city, go rock-climbing, etc. 1/10th of 1% chance of dying, for the chance to be set for life (and potentially, a lot safer - no more driving to work every day)? Sure.
But I feel sorry for the guys who jump on this and lose. Now THAT'S a bad beat.
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Zangief
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zangief
I think the 1/6 chance of dying makes this easier for people to agree to, even in theory.
What if the gun had 3/6 chambers with bullets in them, making the proposition a coinflip? Then how much money would you need to do it?
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What if the gun had 1 bullet but 100 chambers?
1000 chambers?
1000000 chambers? |
You had me at 6 chambers.
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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Umm throw in some adult diapers and Im in, I seriously think only 5% or less of people could actually pull the trigger. A lot say they could including me but Im positive not all the peoepl who say they could could pull thta trigger.
Its like the what would you do in a hostage situation you dont know till you are in one.
Although I might have a slight advatage because I am somewhat insane.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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GAMB000000L!
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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We also havent taken into our equations the odds of being shot in the head and leaving. Sometiems you can be shot in the head and the bullet grazes along your skull, or goes into your brain but does not damage. Or you could always end up being half retarted.
So if we figure in that 75% of the time the bullet will kill, 1% of the time graze your skull or do no permanent damage, and the other 24% of the time leave you half retarted would that change nayones choice.
That owuld be enteraining a retarted guy with 50 million dollars..... 50 millions dollars worth of pudding hmmm
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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DoGGz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
I'd take it for 1000 or more chambers with 1 bullet. You take that great of a chance with your life (at least) for every year you drive a car to work, eat meat, live in a major city, go rock-climbing, etc. 1/10th of 1% chance of dying, for the chance to be set for life (and potentially, a lot safer - no more driving to work every day)? Sure.
But I feel sorry for the guys who jump on this and lose. Now THAT'S a bad beat.
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Eating meat  lol...
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Eating meat, especially a lot of red meat, decreases the average life expectency. Don't shoot the messenger. I eat meat myself. (And drive a car to work, etc. I don't rock-climb though.)
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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I bet more than 75% of the people who said yes wouldn't be able to pull that trigger when push comes to shove.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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imagine at least 3 people (on average) out of the 16 who voted yes would be dead now if this really happened.
SUCKS FOR THEM
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DogOnMySide
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
imagine at least 3 people (on average) out of the 16 who voted yes would be dead now if this really happened.
SUCKS FOR THEM
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LOL.
There should be an FTR Heaven forum for those who said yes and died. "I was on a sick ass downswing anyway and now THIS! Serves me right for trying to play through it."
Don't let Ripptyde do this. He'll get carried away and think he can earn $50mil per trigger-pull..
"I am like... $200,000,000 richer than you I FUCKING ROC <BLAM>"
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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lol
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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meh
two chambers
ill take that
but i want a billion! no cutting corners on the loose change either!
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frands1
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 16
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
imagine at least 3 people (on average) out of the 16 who voted yes would be dead now if this really happened.
SUCKS FOR THEM
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"that f*ing party gun was so rigged. F* it"
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EasyT
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Yo Mamma
Posts: 834
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
Eating meat, especially a lot of red meat, decreases the average life expectency.
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Not eating meat reduces your dinner-enjoyment expectency.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EasyT
Not eating meat reduces your dinner-enjoyment expectency.
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I'm not sure how that relates to this discussion in any meaningful way, but as a meat eater, I happen to (mostly) agree with you. There are a lot of vegetarian meals I like, but the number of vegetarian foods I like a WHOLE LOT compared to the number of meat dishes I like a whole lot... well, it's not much of a comparison. Which is why I made a really unhealthy sojourn to Skyline Chili for lunch today - the lunch equivalent of this Russian roulette challege, basically, except instead of $50 million I win a pile of cheese and an afternoon on the crapper.
(Say, THAT don't seem right.)
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booradly07
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 120
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EasyT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
Eating meat, especially a lot of red meat, decreases the average life expectency.
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Not eating meat reduces your dinner-enjoyment expectency. |
Besides, everyone knows if you don't eat meat you will turn into a pussy.
Quote:
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Skyline Chili - the lunch equivalent of this Russian roulette challege, basically, except instead of $50 million I win a pile of cheese and an afternoon on the crapper.
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POTD
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BIGandRICH
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Jazz Club
Posts: 419
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if you die does your family get the cash??
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villain goes AI
i call with a set (i have him owned)
i win pot
villain: **** this, this site is bullshit, ******* rigged, suck out ****
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