I don't think GE polls this far out are reliable. Plus Romney got a post-confirmation boost
Anyways, the key states polling is a bit different. Obama is doing quite well in places like Ohio and Virginia
I have Obama winning every state he did last time except Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida. The Southwest is shifting blue quite swiftly by way of regional influence of the West and Hispanics. It's possible that Arizona will actually be a swing state.
The same can be said for the entire North (except redneck Indiana). Virginia looks like they have some crazy demographic shifts that may have made them lean blue, and Ohio is in the process of becoming a blue stronghold, I think.
Another sort of polling that is more important to look at is favorability among women. While Obama has lost some of his enormous lead in young voters, he's gained enormously in women. And as Woody told Ed Harris in Game Change, Romney couldn't win if he lost women by 5 points. Which he's gonna do. The Dems were pretty brilliant on the whole contraception thing, they let the GOP make women fucking hate them. Like the GOP has done their racist/religious Southern Strategy, the Dems seem to be picking up on a Womens Strategy (plus minorities, youths, urban, and North)
I'm trying to keep this short, but just one more point I want to make is that regional influence is such a huge deal. It's why Santorum did so well in the MidNorth states. Anyways, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are becoming like the West and the Hispanics; Iowa has always been rather reasonable in the GE, but the stuff Barry has done with Michigan is making that whole region a bit stronger, and I think the stuff with women is making states like Iowa and Ohio much more powerfully blue; and Virginia may be shifting blue. On the flip side, Florida is fucking crazy because they should be much more blue than they are, but they get a ton of encroachment from the South (and old people), so it's possible they eventually become a somewhat solid red. But every other state that is shifting is doing so on the blue side
GOP is in loads of trouble. Especially when you consider their politics rely on white men, yet in just a few decades, they won't be able to win one single General due to minorities being the majority
The sense of it is that Obama has many, many paths to win, while Romney has very few, and they're all rather difficult to pull off