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Preseason Week 2 Selections

  
 
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ensign_lee
Old 08-15-2006, 06:37 AM     Post subject: Preseason Week 2 Selections #1 (permalink)  
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YTD Record: 11-8-3
Units Won: 5.097 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 1-1
-101 to -110: 5-4
+100 to +110: 3-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 1-1
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 8-6-2
2 unit plays: 2-2
3 unit plays: 1-0

~~~
Allright. Week two lines are up already and I see some lines that I like.

Baltimore Ravens -3 (-104) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
Baltimore/Philadelphia OVER 34 (-105) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

The second one I wanted to bet now before the line went up at Pinnacle. Lots of places now, it's at 34.5, so I wanted to get it in now.

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ensign_lee
Old 08-15-2006, 06:58 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Seattle Seahawks +1.5 (-101) (-103.1 if I win) @ Matchbook

I would love to take the moneyline instead, but I think that by the time the moneyline comes out, it will pretty much be the same odds as I'm getting right now for +1.5, if not worse, so I want to get this bet down early.

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Old 08-15-2006, 09:19 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Adding Houston/KC UNDER 38.5 (-106) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

I don't know who just bet the shit out of Houston OVER 37.5 to make the odds go from -105 to -120, but uh...I'm gonna take advantage of it and hit the under 38.5 now at -106. Every place else has it at 38 at -110, so yay?

Also, the Seattle bet above is for 1 unit. Unless otherwise noted, all plays should be for 1 unit.

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Old 08-16-2006, 04:25 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Adding GB-2 (-115) @ Skybook (Yay free half point!) for 1 unit
Adding TEN +6.5 (-115) @ Skybook (Again, woohoo free half point!) for 1 unit

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Old 08-16-2006, 04:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Line seems to be moving early on the MNF football game, with money coming in on the Saints.

I'm gonna hit the moneyline up now before it devalues.

NO Moneyline vs. Dallas (+135) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

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ensign_lee
Old 08-16-2006, 05:02 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Just noticed my record is incorrect:

One of my two unit pushes I made a one unit push.

So...updated...

~~~TD Record: 11-8-3
Units Won: 5.097 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 1-1
-101 to -110: 5-4
+100 to +110: 3-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 1-1
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 8-6-1
2 unit plays: 2-2-1
3 unit plays: 1-0

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Old 08-16-2006, 01:34 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Ok. See. Now... explain everything you wrote in this thread.
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ensign_lee
Old 08-17-2006, 08:17 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Ok. See. Now... explain everything you wrote in this thread.
um....what? What specifically do I need to explain? I'm happy to help; I just don't know where to start.

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ensign_lee
Old 08-17-2006, 08:22 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Adding these two plays for the next few days:

NYG -3.5 (+104) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
BUF -3.5 (-101) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

I may stick another unit on Buffalo. So much of the betting populace is betting on Cincinatti, but the line hasn't moved. This is very suspicious. That, plus the whole "shitty teams do well in the second week of preseason against good teams" trend as well. I dunno...

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Old 08-17-2006, 09:51 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Yep: definitely upping Buffalo -3.5 (-101) @ Pinnacle to a two unit play.

67+% of the bets are the Bengals...that is SICK. Buffalo it is....(aaaagh. I'm betting on Buffalo....... )

Also adding:
SEA/IND UNDER 39 (-105) @ Skybook for 1 unit. Free half point didn't work...I wonder why. Maybe it doesn't work for totals? I dunno...

TB -2.5 vs. Miami (-104.08 if I win) @ Matchbook for 1 unit.

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Old 08-17-2006, 07:57 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Ok. In light of the fact that the Philadelphia starters will be in for 2 quarters vs. the Baltimore starters being in for 1, and ace-ace being on the other side (and with a "best bet" at that), I am buying back my Baltimore -3 (-105) bet.

I got BAL -3 at -105, and am getting PHI +3 at +107, so yay scalp? This effectively erases this play from my record and I am losing no juice. woot!


On another note, how can I possibly get the ass end of EVERY line lately?!?! I bet on the Giants; the of course the line gets back to 3!!! and then I lose 3 cents of value on betting on Buffalo...grr...

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Old 08-18-2006, 06:08 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Hah; the bet I hedged out of completely won. Damn. Oh well.

The Giants beat up on the Chiefs, so yay there.

So...down 1 unit, and up 1.04 units = a .04 unit day. hahahaha. Awesome. At least I'm not down, right?

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Old 08-18-2006, 06:31 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Oh yeah: record update

~~~
YTD Record: 12-9-3
Units Won: 5.137 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 1-1
-101 to -110: 5-5
+100 to +110: 4-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 1-1
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 9-7-2
2 unit plays: 2-2
3 unit plays: 1-0

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Old 08-18-2006, 06:33 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Addiny NYJ +4 (-115) @ Skybook. Yay free half point!

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Old 08-18-2006, 06:39 AM #15 (permalink)  
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1 NFL Football
Buffalo Bills 18-August-2006 4:00 PM PST
Spread -3.5 for Game -105

2 NFL Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-August-2006 4:30 PM PST
Spread -2.5 for Game -115

3 NFL Football
Arizona Cardinals 19-August-2006 5:00 PM PST
Spread +3.5 for Game -115

4 NFL Football
Green Bay Packers 19-August-2006 5:00 PM PST
Spread -3 for Game -105

5 NFL Football
Minnesota Vikings 19-August-2006 5:00 PM PST
Money Line for Game +150

6 NFL Football
Houston Texans 19-August-2006 5:00 PM PST
Money Line for Game +150

7 NFL Football
New York Jets 19-August-2006 5:00 PM PST
Money Line for Game +150

8 NFL Football
Tennessee Titans 19-August-2006 6:00 PM PST
Spread +6 for Game -105

.5 units to win 202.75 units. Woohoo!

Every play up there except hte TB one is just there because the public is on the other side according to wagerline/covers. And there's a few system plays in there too...

So uh, yeah. GO PARLAY!!!

~~~
This won't count, 'cause it's kinda "for fun". I wouldn't advise anybody else to take crazy parlays like this, but I thought it'd be fun. Sometimes, it's hard to have self control. ;o)

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Old 08-19-2006, 06:43 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Too bad Buffalo SUCKS.

Oh well.

0-1 today,

-2 units. Woot.

~~~
Record Update:
YTD Record: 12-10-3
Units Won: 3.137 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 1-1
-101 to -110: 5-6
+100 to +110: 4-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 1-1
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 9-7-2
2 unit plays: 2-3
3 unit plays: 1-0

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ensign_lee
Old 08-19-2006, 07:03 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Adding for tomorrows games:

ARI +4 (-110) @ Skybook (wooh free half point!) for 1 unit

And then, of course, a bunch of dog moneylines:
MIN Moneyline (+151) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
HOU Moneyline (+156) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
NYJ Moneyline (+164) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
TEN Moneyline (+257) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

Hopefully, these will at least split (if not do better than that). I'm going with the trend that teams with 6 wins or less do very well against teams with 7 wins or more in the second week of preseason.

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Old 08-19-2006, 08:45 AM #18 (permalink)  
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NYJ/WAS UNDER 33 (-107) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

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Old 08-20-2006, 04:03 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Wow...that under sucked a lot. whoops...

Allright. Not the best of days (I'm already counting the Tennessee +6.5 and M/L as losses). Lost both unders I played today, even though unders went 4 out of 7 so far. Damn.

But oh well. I'm glad I played those M/L dogs near the end. +juice ROCKS!

Allright...record update...

~~~
Record Update:
YTD Record: 17-16-3
Units Won: 1.086 units

Saturday's Record:
5-6
Units won: -2.051

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-2
-101 to -110: 5-10
+100 to +110: 4-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 4-1
+186 to +300: 0-1
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 14-12-2
2 unit plays: 2-3
3 unit plays: 1-1

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Old 08-20-2006, 04:05 AM #20 (permalink)  
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-101 to -110: 5-10

Hah. Wow; that sucks. Hopefully, I'll be able to turn that around.

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Old 08-20-2006, 01:22 PM #21 (permalink)  
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SF Moneyline (+141) for 1 unit
Seattle Moneyline (+130) for 1 unit

based on the fact that the public is on the other side.

Yes. I know I already have a Seattle +1.5, but at +130, I think there is value.

I think this should at least split, right?

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Old 08-21-2006, 03:18 AM #22 (permalink)  
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So the moneylines split. I won the Seattle +1.5, but lost the under.

So all in all... +.27 units. Better than the last few days of losing 2 units a day, that's for sure.

Record update:

Record Update:
YTD Record: 19-18-3
Units Won: 1.36 units

Sunday's Record: 2-2
Units won: +.27 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-2
-101 to -110: 6-11
+100 to +110: 4-2-2
+111 to +125: 1-0
+125 to +185: 5-2
+186 to +300: 0-1
+300 onwards: 0-0-1

<1 unit plays: 0-0-1
1 unit plays: 14-12-2
2 unit plays: 2-3
3 unit plays: 1-1

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