The Official MMA thread. (spoilers!)

[wufwugy]

i thought perhaps junior would have learned the easiest lesson there ever was to learn from the second fight: don't move backwards, don't get put up against the cage, don't let cain dictate what happens

cain is beatable, but junior will not be the one to do it. i'm not a fan of this reality, but i think the hyper-aggressive style is problematic. that's why i wish the octagon was a smaller, four-sided ring. then pressing forward becomes a less easy to beat style

[wufwugy]

at least jones is finally going to lose now that cormier's lard ass is moving down

[givememyleg]

one of my fav moments from the fight, was so epic when cain met him in the middle. vid shows it at 15 seconds in.

[wufwugy]

Had $134 sitting on Carbon for some time. Put it all on Vitor at -200. Should be an easy win. Let's see if I can run this up to over $1k

[d0zer]

I'd agree with those odds, I don't think that bet has a huge edge or anything but gl on yer road to 1k.

I was wasted the other UFC and came up with this 'brilliant' betting system that capitalized on the hypetrains associated with huge name dinosaurs like mir a year or two ago that are JUST becoming over the hill, and fighting the new blood with everything to prove. I think the odds they give in those fights are often stupidly in favor of the dinosaur.

[wufwugy]

I was wasted the other UFC and came up with this 'brilliant' betting system that capitalized on the hypetrains associated with huge name dinosaurs like mir a year or two ago that are JUST becoming over the hill, and fighting the new blood with everything to prove. I think the odds they give in those fights are often stupidly in favor of the dinosaur.

Yep. Big time. One of the easiest ways to pick fights is to look for the hype trains.

It's a factor in this fight too. Additionally, Hendo's stupid bent crouch stance hinders his ability to win by a ton, but that's not factored into the odds. Any top level opponent should beat Hendo because of that stance. All it does is give his right hand more power while detracting from mobility and left-handed power. Vitor doesn't lose decisions, and the only way Hendo KOs him is if Vitor hasn't adequately trained to avoid that projected right. Which makes the fight about how capable Vitor's speed and technique is at KOing Hendo. Plus it's in Brazil, home of UberVitor. I was surprised to see -200, and would probably put the real odds closer to -400

[wufwugy]

Fuck Vitor is -185 now. I thought -200 would be the lowest he would get. Do the lines usually tighten closer to the event?

[d0zer]

I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but who else thinks that chael at +170 vs rashad is a great bet?

U watching this tonight wuggy? that thatch body knee was pretty sick. not often u see a tough brazillian summabitch TAP from a body shot.

[wufwugy]

yeah was sick

I don't think Chael is a good bet. Rashad beats him everywhere. Chael is legit, but not top 5 in any weight class. Rashad will be able to counter everything Chael is good at. Chael was a much easier pick against Shogun than most thought because Shogun has not evolved in the necessary ways to even be top 10

[wufwugy]

Actually I take that back slightly. I forgot Hasha' is a Blackzillian and lost to Rog Nog. Only Blackzillian who hasn't gotten worse at that team is Belfort, and Evans looked like he phoned in his entire camp for the Nog fight. Normally I'd say Rashad at -200 is good vs Chael, but not now

[d0zer]

ok if u say so. wanna give me 2. your two. for my one. straight up dawg? I have 200 sitting in an e-wallet account somewhere just lookin' for a gambol.

[d0zer]

oh I didn't see yer post where u preemptively declined my offer. wppre

[TeUnit]

wow the last 3 cards were great, hope they keep this up

[wufwugy]

Balls. Rory Mac is at -400. It's probably a decent bet, but marginally. My problem is it just doesn't feel worth it to do the double or nothing at such bad odds

Weidman is good at +115, but not amazing. The Vitor bet was just too easy to pass up, but if I can't pick the right fights I'll lose the remainder

[wufwugy]

Put $50 on GSP at -200. Since my roll is so tiny, I'm not comfortable with more, but I don't see Hendricks catching him and I do picture Hendricks gassing

[d0zer]

I don't see GSP likely to lose either, but I'm not sure he wins more than 2/3s of the time. maybe he does, wat do I know.

edit: so chael retires if he loses and becomes a professional talking head, right?

[wufwugy]

I have a hunch that traditional sportsbetting lines don't work for combat sports. What I mean is something along the lines of when a fighter has a small edge, say 55/45, he has a small edge, but when he has a slightly larger edge, say what people would call 65/35, it's really a huge edge around 80/20 or 90/10. I don't know if this is accurate, but I think we see it in fights like Belfort vs Hendo. Even though Hendo is not that much worse a fighter than Belfort, stylistically, Hendo rarely wins that. So Belfort may only have 55% of the equity when it comes to how good he is compared to Hendo, but 90% of the equity when it comes to how often he's able to beat Hendo

The person to beat Georges is somebody stylistically like Pettis: so technically sound on the feet that he can nullify GSP's offense, keep from gassing or getting taken down, and can get a KO. Hendricks OTOH has to beat GSP at his own game, and it doesn't look like anybody is going to do that

[wufwugy]

I wouldn't be surprised if Chael retires only if he suffers a KO. He likely wants to keep his brain going strong and doesn't think he has problems now since he doesn't get KO'd

[wufwugy]

omg too funny. i never saw bruno

[d0zer]

I have a hunch that traditional sportsbetting lines don't work for combat sports. What I mean is something along the lines of when a fighter has a small edge, say 55/45, he has a small edge, but when he has a slightly larger edge, say what people would call 65/35, it's really a huge edge around 80/20 or 90/10. I don't know if this is accurate, but I think we see it in fights like Belfort vs Hendo. Even though Hendo is not that much worse a fighter than Belfort, stylistically, Hendo rarely wins that. So Belfort may only have 55% of the equity when it comes to how good he is compared to Hendo, but 90% of the equity when it comes to how often he's able to beat Hendo

I think most fights have more variance than you might think. It's so easy to make one small mistake for a second, get caught with enough to stun that the fight can be easily finished as we saw with vitor v hendo when hendo came in too wildly and got caught on the jaw. Most of the fighters with large win streaks are known for fairly "boring" fights, because they're desperately trying not to make any mistakes, which I suppose does reduce variance when you have the luxury of being able to play the long cautious game and out-whatever your opponent like GSP does. Anderson would almost always have "boring" first rounds, sizing people up, machida same thing, and the latest bones fights it seems like he's fighting more cautiously, trying to hold the belt.

So maybe you're right for GSP, but I think rashad chael is more high variance than one might think.

[wufwugy]

I tend to agree with that, don't know how to predict Hasha vs Shael, but I don't think Vitor catching Hendo was an accident. It was built into Hendo's style. Hendo loves coming in, head down, unprotected. He did the same thing against Franklin. Wait and capitalize on weakness. Hell, that's what Anderson did to Vitor

[d0zer]

I tend to agree with that, don't know how to predict Hasha vs Shael, but I don't think Vitor catching Hendo was an accident. It was built into Hendo's style. Hendo loves coming in, head down, unprotected. He did the same thing against Franklin. Wait and capitalize on weakness. Hell, that's what Anderson did to Vitor

Yeah fair point about hendo's style.

The other thing that increases variance is the mental state of a fighter. It's so hard to be on your A game all the time, and I know they often work with sports psychology to get that A game as much as possible, but inevitably they're human and a myriad of things can throw the human mind off on fight night.

[wufwugy]

Oh definitely. That's part of why I didn't put money on Rashad. He is talented enough to have won every single fight he's lost, but still didn't get it done. His issue is mental, whether he realizes it or not

[d0zer]

this first fight is awesome. Russian has some moves. they're both so quick on the ground, some sick exchanges. dat guillotine slam

[wufwugy]

^^Yeah

Gonna be so happy if Hobbie Brawler KOs Rory Mac. Not only is Rory Mac boring, but -400 is too high. Hobbie has looked pretty good in his last two fights, while Rory Mac just wins by decision

[wufwugy]

being that rory vs robbie is taking place on the feet means that rory is defo not -400, because at the very least robbie can win by decision

[d0zer]

well don't I look silly. wp wuggy

[wufwugy]

Fucking Rashad. Why can't he show that in his other fights. Would have been easy money

[wufwugy]

well don't I look silly. wp wuggy

naw ud only look silly if i took u up on it

[wufwugy]

keep in mind that rashad has never fought like that before

he's incredibly talented, but just doesn't let it go

[wufwugy]

maybe this is evident of the blackzillians changing. they indeed sucked ass for a spell, but maybe they have some new coaches and are tired of living like their names are all that matter

[d0zer]

rashad has the body of a winner. he's built like gsp. thick/lean. sexy. medium sized treetrunks swinging.

[wufwugy]

dont forget steroid nipples

[wufwugy]

cmonnnnnn georges! the one time i need you to win, dont lose that one time

[wufwugy]

fuck cmon georgie get a td and sap his strength

[wufwugy]

looooooooooooooooooooollllllllllllllllllllllllllll llllllllll

did not deserve that

awesome bet, steve. more like not awesome, but still won

[d0zer]

wuggy saved by vegas judges. wp betting on dat.

wtf was that. terrible decision, weird mysterious pseudo-retirement speech joe rogan pulled outta gsp?

weirdest main even evah.

[dthorne04]

FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK

ok I feel better.

NO I DONT. BULLSHIT

[wufwugy]

i dont see how gsp won the decision, but i also dont see how he lost that fight. i mean, who woulda thought that the guy to outwrestle gsp does it without much outwrestling, or the guy who outstrikes him does it without much outstriking. weird ass fight. hendricks should have got the decision, but gotdamn im happy he didnt

[d0zer]

gsp tried to force that that takedown in r1 when it wasn't working, and ate a zillion elbows to the head. hard to fight well after a zillion elbows to the head and kudos to him for putting on such a show after that. I can't help to think that if he didn't eat a zillion elbows to the head off the cuff that things might have gone better for him.

first champion with a slight concussion and the other guy is fine evah!

judges are making a statement: to take a belt you have to knock a motherfucker out cold or break his motherfuckin arm.

[givememyleg]

worst decision ever? i mean jesus wtf. makes me not even want to watch anymore.

[Penneywize]

first round, zillion elbows to the head, you said it. I think that's where things went wrong for GSP and he may have had a much more dominant performance if not for that.

Pleased with decision but it seems unfair, thought Hendricks had it, not by a significant margin though. However I wonder how much of my opinion is clouded by the Rogan commentary throughout the fight.

[wufwugy]

you mean best decision ever!

i cant believe that all the time i said gsp was overrated, he didnt lose, but then the one time i put money on him, he loses (but wins!)

[Lukie]

I am not one to throw out the 'rigged' accusation lightly (it has been years) but there must have been some big time money on GSP.

[wufwugy]

I am not one to throw out the 'rigged' accusation lightly (it has been years) but there must have been some big time money on GSP.

I know! I had 50 bucks on him! Big time, son!

[givememyleg]

http://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments..._the_decision/

[dthorne04]

Anyway. I'm not crying "robbery" like a lot of people are in the MMA community. There's a lot of issues going on, here. They involve woefully under-qualified judges, a pathetically vague scoring system and just a general massive amount of stupidity, ignorance and other fun shit going on. That being said I'm still super fucking pissed that the right guy didn't win the fight. And I'm not going by "who looks more beat up" because that doesn't really mean shit. some dudes just don't show damage as much (GSP does a lot more now, probably related to the fact he's spent over 5 hours in the octagon and countless thousands of hours training) GSP did land a good deal of solid jabs/shots to Hendricks's dome but he's still relatively fresh in his career, so to speak.

I do wish GSP wouldn't have even done the fight if he was planning on going away, or had some plan that was hinging on Rory winning too or whatever. It really fucks the division, invalidates the next guy who wins the interim or full title. Oh and last thing, I don't agree with this whole narrative that GSP owes anyone shit, at all. Dude is pretty clearly dealing with some shit he perceives as heavy. (no Dana, it doesn't matter what the fuck you think here. You're not the one fighting and you don't get to judge how he should feel. Sorry, you bald prick.) I hope GSP does what's right for GSP because despite the fact I don't really like his style in any way, shape or form he has provided me with countless hours of entertainment and has been a pretty good ambassador for my favorite sport.

The whole situation just sucks.

[givememyleg]

well said, agree. i don't dislike gsp and while i wanted hendricks to win you could replace hendricks and gsp with anyone, when a fighter gets screwed like that it's bad for the sport.

and yeah i hated how dismissive white was about gsp's problems or whatever he is going through. he doesn't owe him, us, or anyone a goddamn thing.

[dthorne04]

not to mention Dana comes off like a fucking slave driver when GSP has pretty much generated relatively infinite money for the Fertittas and the UFC versus what GSP's actually seen of said money. doesn't owe you monkeys shit, that's for sure.

[wufwugy]

Dana is an egomaniac, and anybody who isn't in line with the UFC's interests, regardless of if it's inadvertent, are treated as if they've gone against the family. They don't call him the Baldfather for nothing

[wufwugy]

One thing's for certain: if they do the rematch, put it ALL on Hendricks. Shit is gonna be Shogun/Machida 2

[d0zer]

I thought of shogun/machida 1 also and had to see if that was held in vegas also, but nope...cali. Clearly judges don't like handing over belts if it's even marginally close.

[wufwugy]

maynard is -150 vs diaz. not sure if i can do that

[Poker Orifice]

Hmm... I think I should've been following this thread earlier. Betting on UFC fights, can't help but bet on the fighter I want to see win the fight... instead of the one who's gonna win it, lol. (usin' my heart instead of my head = -ev)
ie I like Junior & Henderson.

[wufwugy]

Got some on Maynard at -120 and Pennington at -425

Maybe not the best bets, but I wanna do something. We'll see

[wufwugy]

got some meat on hunt at -115 and te huna at -150. let's see if i learned from that stupid pick on maynard

[d0zer]

wow te huna at -150 seems...super gamboley. And how d'u have hunt at -115 when I'm seeing this:

James Te Huna -130
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua +100

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva -140
Mark Hunt +110

source

[wufwugy]

the only site i have access to is carbon. i probably get shitass odds

[wufwugy]

as for te huna being super gambooley, if he's any good it's not. shogun is terribly overrated. problem is i dont remember any of te huna's fights. but combining the fact that he fought glover for no.1 contender and that half of mma fans would suck off shogun if given the opportunity, he's probably a good bet

[d0zer]

I agree with shogun being generally overrated, riding on the belt hype, but not at those odds. I mean all of shogun's recent losses have been to top-tier fighters, and te huna has yet to beat anyone top tier as far as I can tell...

[wufwugy]

omg i had briefly considered betting on barry

he needs to move the fuck down in weight

[d0zer]

omg i had briefly considered betting on barry

he needs to move the fuck down in weight

abo dude he fought defo needed to do the same.

[wufwugy]

oh shit wtf was that

[wufwugy]

i guess if you put two shitty strikers in a fight, it will look like that. I thought that by now all prospects would have learned that leading with uppercuts like like that is stupid

well maybe now hunt can show people how it's done

[d0zer]

all this being right makes me want to join you in this attempt to beat the absurd spreads these sites give. sorry for your loss.

[wufwugy]

that's cool. i dont care a whole lot about winning these and don't pay nearly as much attention to mma as i used to

[wufwugy]

jesus that was ridiculous. can't believe hunt didn't put bigfoot away. these guys have to be a significant tier below velasquez level. baffles me how cormier can make mince meat of bigfoot, but hunt couldnt finish him. dude too fat yo

[d0zer]

bigfoot took some big shots like a boss. so hard to finish those beasts, but look how gassed they were in the later rounds. cain & jr both had so much more life in the last round of their marathon...they in a class of their own.

[givememyleg]

gsp retires. hendricks v lawler for the title at ufc 171 on march 15.

prediction: hendricks destroys lawler.

[wufwugy]

wow he retired?

what a, um, smart move. like seriously, he's got his shit together. nobody retires when they should. nobody. except georgie poo

[d0zer]

I didn't think he officially retired, just that he was giving up the belt and taking some time off to get his shit in order. That being said, he's getting up there in the years and this very well could be the end.

[givememyleg]

yeah i guess "indefinite leave" and he said he would want to come back some time, but who knows.

[wufwugy]

figured faber would be like -400 but got him at -135

[wufwugy]

got dose fat stacks on weidman at +155 and +160 and browne at +185 and +180. got in early because it seems the lines narrow closer to fight time. they both dropped like 20 points overnight. waiting for ronda to dip below -650 so i can get on that, but looks like it's not happening. will still put money on her though. miesha wins by way of head kick or rnc and nothing else. so basically miesha doesn't win. normally id love a barnett win because he rules, but i just dont see it happening, and browne is a steal at those odds. weidman is as well, as he should be the favorite. the idea that silva was clowning is false. weidman basically shut him down and capitalized, and he will do it again

[d0zer]

It's way too early to write silva off, he could easily adjust and be a bit more cautious this time. Though I think the fact that he seems to have mentally checked out of the sport a bit, where weidman is younger and hungrier is probably worth betting on alone.