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NFL Week 10 Value?

  
 
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zook
Old 11-07-2006, 05:08 PM     Post subject: NFL Week 10 Value? #1 (permalink)  
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I'm having trouble finding it. Games I like, all lines at Pinnacle:

NO +4 vs. PIT (+100)
Can Pittsburgh keep losing? I think they can. This may be my favorite play right now.

SD -1 vs. CIN (-112)
Everybody and their mother is on this.

PHI -7 vs. Was (-106)
Andy Reid's team is great after bye weeks and Washington is not good, but I'm not sure I can bring myself to bet on this Jekyll & Hyde Eagles team again.

JAC -10.5 vs. Hou (+103)
I hate big lines. There's too much parity in the NFL, as evidenced by Houston's close game with the Giants last week.

What do you guys think?
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ensign_lee
Old 11-07-2006, 05:35 PM #2 (permalink)  
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New Orleans:
I would have hit that at the +6 opener, but I thought the public would have been all over it. Normally, I'd go and take a position on teh game, but well...seems there's been a lot more reverse line movement on these games than true line movement (like you saw there).

So uh...it's worth a shot, I guess; I'm just not betting on it

San Diego:

To the contrary...this doesn't have the lopsided betting that I feared. 56-44 ratio, in favor of San Diego. It's already one of my bets.

Philadelphia:
I'm kinda opposite you here; I'm thinking 7 points in a rivlary game is too much.

Jacksonville:

One thing you have going for you is that this is Houston's third straight road game; team's don't often cover those. Another thing you hvae is that Houston doesn't seem to play well back to back. They had a strong showing against eh Giants, so maybe they have a let down here?

BUT...this is the strongest rivalry the Texans have. Texans actually own the all-time series between these two teams; for some reason, either the Jags play down to us (the Texans) or we play up to them whenever we play each other.

The Texans players HATE the Jags. There's even a nice little history with some players still on the team (although some are now off the team as well).

Tread a 10.5 spread with caution.

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euphoricism
Old 11-07-2006, 06:56 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Tread a 10.5 spread with caution
Like the miami v chicago game lol. Chicago +13.5 and they loooooooose.
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swiggidy
Old 11-08-2006, 06:58 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Wong Teasers?
Ravens
Falcons

Eagles
Broncos

Cowboys
Bears
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zook
Old 11-08-2006, 07:10 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Wong Teasers?
Ravens
Falcons

Eagles
Broncos

Cowboys
Bears
Couple of things... getting off the 3 or 7 doesn't offer nearly as much value as crossing the 3 or 7. So the Ravens, Eagles, Bears and Cowboys aren't really Wongable, at least at Pinnacle where they're -7, -7, +3, -7. However, the Bears +3 line comes with -123 juice, so I think that's worth teasing just because you don't have to pay the juice.

The Broncos and Falcons would require 7-point teasers to cross the 3 and the 7, and you could include Carolina in this too and it's a 3-team Wong. (I love all the sexual innuendo you get discussing these.) BUT, you only get +120 on 3-team 7-point teasers at Pinnacle, which I don't think is a good price. lee, do you know what kind of juice you're looking for on these?
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ensign_lee
Old 11-08-2006, 07:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Yeah...since Mansion went away, juice on teasers kinda sucks at all other shops.

You definitely want more than +120 on a three teamer, though.

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swiggidy
Old 11-08-2006, 10:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
You definitely want more than +120 on a three teamer, though.
Sportsbook is +140, but their lines are often 0.5 to 1 point off (usually the wrong directions).
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