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metaxy6
Old 02-15-2006, 11:47 PM     Post subject: NCAA Wednesday #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 328
metaxy6
Iona -6
Vandy +3
TCU +7
Georgia +8.5
all for 1u

Any late plays out there??
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kling
Old 02-16-2006, 11:27 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Philly, PA
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kling
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Went 3-2.

Hit Pitt, Florida, South Florida
Lost miserably on Cal Poly and Florida St.
aka wildwest15
They all know me as a small timer, but that's about to change.
 
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-16-2006, 01:43 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I was playing poker all day yesterday and didnt get to look at the games till i got back... looks like i missed some good bets out there. I got in on Colorado +1 right before tip so atleast i won something as i got owned playing poker.
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metaxy6
Old 02-16-2006, 06:31 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Posts: 328
metaxy6
Ya I got on Colrorado also, but it was cancelled out by a play on Weber St.
I've been slightly put off by these huge lines, and tried something different - basically just following sharp $ on the TCU and Vandy plays (2 home teams coming off a night when the home teams covered well).

One thing that's really bugging me is game selection - anyone can only really look into so many games and then a small portion of those are going to be worth a play. I've been using the Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Basketball.asp
as a guide to where the values might be and where to focus. But that's meant missing out on some games that were really worth a look.

In poker, I feel just fine about folding 6-8 suited early in an aggro game and missing a straight flush, but in ncaa it sucks to keep passing games like Northeastern -16.5 over JMadison because the line looks scary.

So, I'm trying to get a better system for selecting looks in the first place.
Also trying to get a handle on what's going on this time of the season - how much injuries mean, how to work with huge lines, what to expect on the 2nd meeting between conference opponents, as well as just what stats are the difference-makers right now.

I'm in the middle of running #'s from about 70 games played this week to get at some of those things, and will be glad to share any useful findings if you guys are interested.
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