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metaxy6
Old 02-13-2006, 05:09 PM     Post subject: NCAA Monday #1 (permalink)  
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Anyone see any value tonight?

So far, I like the favs:
UConn -2 (bought .5) 1.5 u
Kansas -2 (bought .5) 1.5 u
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-13-2006, 08:00 PM #2 (permalink)  
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yeah im right with you tonight... like Kansas, Uconn and also Fresno

Already on them for the following
UCONN -2 2 units
Kansas -2 for 1.5 units
Fresno -1.5 for 1.5 units

going slightly bigger on fewer games today.. trying to make up for this past weekend
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-13-2006, 08:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Also checking out Austin Peay +3... whats your thoughts on this met?
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metaxy6
Old 02-13-2006, 09:12 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Hey B, I'm withcha on Fres.
Man, I don't know about the Peay tonight...I'm thinking that you like em cause they're there on the bubble and should be hungry for the w. They're also 5-0 ats in last 5 games; 4-0 su last 3 seasons v Tenn St; 5-1 ats v Tenn St last 6 games...

At least they're running into a team in Tenn St that also has problems w/ depth, because Peay is tired. Their top 2 - Hampton and Schlader are averaging 37.9 mins their last 4 games. That couldn't be good - I suppose there's a reason that they're 5-6 ats w/ 1day of rest or less.
Peay's biggest problem roster-wise is with the bigs - they only have one true big in their senior 6'9 center Schlader, and a bunch of 6-5 types -
all underclassmen.

Tenn St. is thin at guard, but at least they've got senior leadership there. They're pretty stacked in the frontcourt, (2 top 200 true forwards and a top 100 6'11 jr center). The steals the big men are getting tell me that they're fairly quick and should move around ok with Peay's wing guys.

When Peay beat them by 7 @home, they shot 53.5 %5 fg and 46% from 3. Those are both way above season avg. and are bound to come down anyways otr. True, they got to the ft line more - and shot better there than Tenn St, but there should be fewer trips there otr.

I could be missing some big picture things. Those ats #'s and recent results v. Tenn St. alone could be decent reasons to bet them here.
But I still can't really get with a team that's giving up that much matchup-wise if they don't have some overwhelming positives going for them, and I'm not seeing that.
Most of the little things that could tip a game one way or another - like experience, ato, homecourt - all go to Tenn St. here.
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-13-2006, 11:04 PM #5 (permalink)  
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yeah i htink im going to lay off and just stay with my original picks as adding on late always seems to get me into trouble
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metaxy6
Old 02-13-2006, 11:20 PM #6 (permalink)  
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lol i was thinking the same thing when i had to lay off niagara and furman.
we're definitely on the public side tonight.
let's hope it pays.
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metaxy6
Old 02-14-2006, 04:22 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Nice. Fresno delivers the winning night. Thanks for the push B.
UConn drove me nuts - up by 12 and showing no closing, let alone killer, instinct - gets laxidaisical on both ends and lets Nova go on a crazy run and take momentum for the rest of the game.
Oh well, + starting the week is good:
UConn -1.5u
Kansas +1.5 u
Fresno +1 u
2-1, +1u

Looking to hit 3 or 4 picks with pep (2u +) tomorrow and get these u's up for the home stretch.
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kling
Old 02-14-2006, 05:26 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metaxy6
Looking to hit 3 or 4 picks with pep (2u +) tomorrow and get these u's up for the home stretch.
Let's do it!

Took the night off tonight,

8-10 since going to Bodog... gotta hit Tuesday's card.
aka wildwest15
They all know me as a small timer, but that's about to change.
 
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Grand_MasterB
Old 02-14-2006, 11:33 AM #9 (permalink)  
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yeah thanks for talking me out of Austin Peay Met and glad i could return the favor for fresno.. ill take that for a start of the week

went 2-1 and +1 unit

Brings me to
48-35-2
+18.5 units on the year( I just cant seem to crack 20!)
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