Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

FTR Community

  > 

My Favorite Thinking Problem...

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Laeelin
Old 08-11-2005, 11:46 PM     Post subject: My Favorite Thinking Problem... #1 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
Laeelin
In a game show, a contestant is given a choice of three doors of which one contains a prize. The other two doors contain a chicken. After the contestant choses an initial door, the host of the show then reveals an empty door among the two unchosen doors, and asks the contestant if he or she would like to switch to the other unchosen door.

The question is should the contestant switch.


It's not a trick qestion either. =)

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
BobbySalami
Old 08-11-2005, 11:49 PM #2 (permalink)  
BobbySalami's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Limbo
Posts: 433
BobbySalami
Yes....I have a chicken lovers website.
If you wanna turn your daddy parts ORANGE eat some cheetos and watch some porn!

Currently sucking at life!
 
Reply With Quote
hydroseeds
Old 08-11-2005, 11:56 PM #3 (permalink)  
hydroseeds's Avatar
Straight

Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 115
hydroseeds
To get to the other side?
Reply With Quote
vqc
Old 08-12-2005, 12:18 AM #4 (permalink)  
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
vqc
technically yes the contestant should switch.

although there have been millions of issues with this question, and it has been talked to death. the general idea is that:
on ur first try you ahve 1/3 chance to get it right. On the second try you have a 1/2 chance. So by not switching you have given urself only a 33% chance of getting it correct.
Reply With Quote
a500lbgorilla
Old 08-12-2005, 12:28 AM #5 (permalink)  
a500lbgorilla's Avatar
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
a500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to all
Send a message via AIM to a500lbgorilla
There's no point to switching.

If he picks door 1 and reveals door 3 all that happens is either Door 3 is the prize and it doesnt matter if he switches or door 3 is a chicken and he's 50/50 to pick the right door (and his initial pick is just as viable)

Unless he can switch to door 3 after revealing it, there's no point.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
Reply With Quote
Laeelin
Old 08-12-2005, 12:52 AM #6 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
Laeelin
Quote:
on ur first try you ahve 1/3 chance to get it right. On the second try you have a 1/2 chance. So by not switching you have given urself only a 33% chance of getting it correct.
Incorrect....

Quote:
There's no point to switching.

If he picks door 1 and reveals door 3 all that happens is either Door 3 is the prize and it doesnt matter if he switches or door 3 is a chicken and he's 50/50 to pick the right door (and his initial pick is just as viable)

Unless he can switch to door 3 after revealing it, there's no point.
Incorrect..

I'll explain it blow, scroll down if your ready for the answer..

With your first choice, you have (A) (B) (C) .. 1/3 chance that it's behind each door...

(A) = 1/3
(B) = 1/3
(C) = 1/3

So you have a 1/3 chance it's the door you pick, and a 2/3 chance that it's behind one of the other two doors.

(A) = 1/3
(B) or (C) = 2/3

You pick (A)

The game show host opens one of the remaining doors to show (and this is the key) WHICH of the 2 remaining doors (with a 2/3 chance it's behind one of them) is the incorrect one.

(A) = 1/2

(B) or (C) = 2/3

Shown it's not (B) leaves the 2/3 chance behind door (C)

Another way to look at it is this:

If you always change, you can only lose if you start with the winning door (and we all agree you have a 1/3 chance of starting with the loseing door)

for example:

you pick door (A) and it's behind door (A) then the host opens door (B) or door (C) (either one) and you change to the other, you lose.

You pick door (B) and its behind door (A), he opens (C), you change to (A), you win

You pick door(C) and its behind door (A), he opens (B), you change to (A), you win.

I wrote a program that actually runs the problem if you want to see:

http://www.startingdreams.com/doors.php

If you dont believe that, take 3 cups, put a coin in one, have a friend mix them up, you pick one, have him show you an empty cup from the remaining two, and then write down how often you win if you stay, and how often you win if you change...

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
Reply With Quote
Laeelin
Old 08-12-2005, 12:58 AM #7 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
Laeelin
Another way to look at it is this:

You have 100 doors, one has a car, 99 have nothing...

You pick door (A) and the host opens 98 doors showing chickens.

Do you still think there is a 50/50 chance that the door you started with is the correct one?

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
Reply With Quote
Greedo017
Old 08-12-2005, 01:18 AM #8 (permalink)  
Greedo017's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
Greedo017 is on a distinguished road
 i hate this question.

once time i told this to a couple friends, and this one friend is this arrogant idiot and kept INSISTING that i was wrong. i just told it to tell it because its tricky, but it ended up with 3 people yelling at me about how wrong i was.... after a while, i actually got out cups and put a ball under the first one, then the second one, then the third one. if you act this out and write down the results, even just 3 times, you will see how totally obvious the answer is. but they still didn't get it for like 3 days...... oh well.
i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
 
Reply With Quote
Miffed22001
Old 08-12-2005, 01:42 AM #9 (permalink)  
Miffed22001's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
Miffed22001 is on a distinguished road
 at least you can talk to the chicken
Reply With Quote
a500lbgorilla
Old 08-12-2005, 02:20 AM #10 (permalink)  
a500lbgorilla's Avatar
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
a500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to all
Send a message via AIM to a500lbgorilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laeelin
Another way to look at it is this:

You have 100 doors, one has a car, 99 have nothing...

You pick door (A) and the host opens 98 doors showing chickens.

Do you still think there is a 50/50 chance that the door you started with is the correct one?
Yes, becuase you see two doors and one has a car in it and the other does not. No one is ever going to convince me otherwise. It's an entirely new event that you must treat as stand alone.

Just like you're presented 2 doors and one has a car and the other doesnt, you pick A and win a car. Congratz.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
Reply With Quote
DaNutsInYoEye
Old 08-12-2005, 02:20 AM #11 (permalink)  
DaNutsInYoEye's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
DaNutsInYoEye
Send a message via AIM to DaNutsInYoEye
You guys really shouldn't be playing this game without the proper bankroll for it.
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
 
Reply With Quote
a500lbgorilla
Old 08-12-2005, 02:24 AM #12 (permalink)  
a500lbgorilla's Avatar
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
a500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to all
Send a message via AIM to a500lbgorilla
Also, does he always open a door with a chicken in it?

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
Reply With Quote
Laeelin
Old 08-12-2005, 02:46 AM #13 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
Laeelin
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Also, does he always open a door with a chicken in it?

-'rilla
Yes, but that actually doesnt matter =)

Quote:
Yes, becuase you see two doors and one has a car in it and the other does not. No one is ever going to convince me otherwise. It's an entirely new event that you must treat as stand alone.

Just like you're presented 2 doors and one has a car and the other doesnt, you pick A and win a car. Congratz.

-'rilla
Let me try a more extreme example then....

Pretend you have a friend that is a time traveler from the future.

He sees you buy a lottery ticket and looks at your numbers.

You Picked: 08-14-19-24-29-32 (Door A)

He then says, well, i'll give you a hint... out of the millions of possible numbers (millions of other doors), it's either the numbers you picked already, OR (opens all but one of the millions of other doors) the number is:

05-15-17-20-21-24 (the other door remaining)

Do you still think it's a 50/50 chance between thoes two numbers (Doors)?

ps: if you still dont see it, try using cups and a penny.. It's 100% true, really... I didnt make this question up... It's not just a math trick, it's real life fact! =)

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
Reply With Quote
a500lbgorilla
Old 08-12-2005, 03:06 AM #14 (permalink)  
a500lbgorilla's Avatar
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
a500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to alla500lbgorilla is a name known to all
Send a message via AIM to a500lbgorilla
Alright, wow. That lottery example worked really fucking well. It just clicked. You are truely my better this day.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
Reply With Quote
Laeelin
Old 08-12-2005, 03:20 AM #15 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
Laeelin
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
You are truely my better
potd!



You didnt hear this from me, but I wrote the script I linked to prove it wrong

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
Reply With Quote
SinkRox
Old 08-12-2005, 03:23 AM #16 (permalink)  
SinkRox's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 624
SinkRox
Send a message via MSN to SinkRox
I change my mind and pick the door the cute host showed me, because there's a chicken behind two doors and a prize in the other.. seeing as the door she showed me was empty it must be the prize door.

*thinking outside the box*
Experimenting - 200NL 5max.

"They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?" Waking life
 
Reply With Quote
nomofoshobro
Old 08-12-2005, 07:50 AM     Post subject: Re: My Favorite Thinking Problem... #17 (permalink)  
nomofoshobro's Avatar
Straight

Join Date: May 2005
Location: HOG HEAVEN
Posts: 130
nomofoshobro
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laeelin
In a game show, a contestant is given a choice of three doors of which one contains a prize. The other two doors contain a chicken. After the contestant choses an initial door, the host of the show then reveals an empty door among the two unchosen doors, and asks the contestant if he or she would like to switch to the other unchosen door.

The question is should the contestant switch.


It's not a trick qestion either. =)
If the host opens one of the remaining doors and it is empty, then he is a lying bastard. it should have either a chicken or the prize.
Reply With Quote
arkana
Old 08-12-2005, 09:51 AM #18 (permalink)  
arkana's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
arkana
Send a message via AIM to arkana
There is a 1/3 chance that you pick the right door with your first pick and 2/3 chance that the right door is one of the remaining two. You know which one of the two remaining doors will be the right door if your first choice was incorrect (because the host opens one of them). Therefore it makes sense that you should switch because 66% of the time your first choice will be incorrect which means that 66% of the time the other door is the correct one.
Reply With Quote
Irisheyes
Old 08-12-2005, 09:54 AM #19 (permalink)  
Irisheyes's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
Irisheyes
So... Eh... What was the prize?
Reply With Quote
lamaros
Old 08-12-2005, 10:35 AM #20 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 346
lamaros
Two chickens.
Reply With Quote
Irisheyes
Old 08-12-2005, 10:59 AM #21 (permalink)  
Irisheyes's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
Irisheyes
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamaros
Two chickens.
Funky.
























Chicken.
Reply With Quote
Miffed22001
Old 08-12-2005, 01:33 PM #22 (permalink)  
Miffed22001's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
Miffed22001 is on a distinguished road
 if i were a goldfish reading this thread i woulda forgotten what it was about by now
Reply With Quote
Irisheyes
Old 08-12-2005, 02:09 PM #23 (permalink)  
Irisheyes's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
Irisheyes
What thread?
Reply With Quote
Jeebus Kliest
Old 08-12-2005, 05:15 PM #24 (permalink)  
Jeebus Kliest's Avatar
3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Escondido, CA
Posts: 105
Jeebus Kliest
I was always pretty damn sure that with false back walls they would just switch the prize and the chicken just to screw most of the people.
20K06 - 20k profit by end of 2006
Progress at http://www.crunchy-in-milk.com
 
Reply With Quote
chardrian
Old 08-12-2005, 07:33 PM #25 (permalink)  
chardrian's Avatar
I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,524
chardrian is on a distinguished road
Send a message via MSN to chardrian
You forgot to say that the host always shows a chicken before asking if the contestant wants to switch.

The answer is switch.

You have a 2 in 3 shot of winning if you switch. A 1 in 3 shot if you don't.

It's purty easy to see - let's say you choose door one and let's check out the three possibilities.

1) Prize is behind door 1. He shows you either door 2 or 3, you switch and lose.

2) Prize is behind door 2. He has to show you door three (since obviously you will change if he shows you your losing door) you switch and win.

3) Prize is behind door 3. This time he has to show you door 2 (see above for why), you switch and win.
http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com
 
Reply With Quote
Laeelin
Old 08-12-2005, 07:57 PM #26 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
Laeelin
Quote:
You forgot to say that the host always shows a chicken before asking if the contestant wants to switch.
That part doesnt matter... It only matters that the chicken was shown in the example =)

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
Reply With Quote
TylerK
Old 08-12-2005, 10:08 PM     Post subject: Re: My Favorite Thinking Problem... #27 (permalink)  
TylerK's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
TylerK
Send a message via AIM to TylerK
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laeelin
...one contains a prize. The other two doors contain a chicken.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laeelin
After the contestant choses an initial door, the host of the show then reveals an empty door among the two unchosen doors
Rigged
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
Reply With Quote
Miffed22001
Old 08-12-2005, 10:24 PM #28 (permalink)  
Miffed22001's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
Miffed22001 is on a distinguished road
 im gona shoot those bastard chickens!!!!
argghhhhh :P
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:35 PM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.