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Maths prob

  
 
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WillburForce
Old 10-01-2009, 09:23 AM     Post subject: Maths prob #1 (permalink)  
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My bad maths...

I play Whist at work, but am struggling with a very basic maths prob!!! I've tried google, but can't find anything and my head is spinning.

General idea on the last round of the game:
each player gets dealt 1 card, then the top of the pack is turned up as the Trump, then each player "bids" in turn. But the bids can't add up to the cards dealt (1). Eg: player A bids 1, player B bids 0, player C has to bid 1.

On this particular game, there were 3 players.
Player A gets dealt the 4h.The trump is 10d (so diamonds).

So should player A bid 1 with 2 players behind him?

Cards that beat him: 12d's, 10h's = 22 cards
Cards that can't beat him : 13c's, 13s's, 3h's = 29 cards.

The answer is probably yes on this occasion, but how does the probablity change as the players increase? Anyone give me the formula???
Normski
 
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oskar
Old 10-01-2009, 12:12 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I don't understand the bidding system, but the chances that he's beat are 1-[1-22/(50-n)]^n where n is the # of players
amirite?
In your deck there are 14 hearts... but idk if the A is high or low, so I left it.
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WillburForce
Old 10-01-2009, 01:16 PM #3 (permalink)  
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thanks.

soemone else answered on another post, and I refined it a bit

1- ((28/50)*((28/49))

so infact I shouldn't bid 1 and should bid 0, as theres a 68% chance someone will have a Trump card or a higher heart (than my 4h).

It's really good game Whist for playing for no money.
Normski
 
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WillburForce
Old 10-01-2009, 01:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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oh and A is high
Normski
 
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