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djbruxism

01-08-2007, 02:11 PM Post subject: martingale and bonuswhoring

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2006

Posts: 69

ok, so the martingale system...

i can't do the maths on these kinds of things, and i'm looking for a little help.
here's the maths question.

Deposit $100...get $100 bonus.

Play blackjack.
what are the odds that, starting with $1 bets, and using the martingale system, you will bust out before the wagering is complete? and what are the odds you won't bust out, and leave with a motza?

This question is complicated further by the fact that that you can split, double, double after splitting and get blackjack.

Thanks for your time.

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Scrimmage

01-08-2007, 02:17 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2006

Location: Saskatoon, Canada

Posts: 127

The Martingale system is designed only for when you dip below where you started, not for when you are over that point. Because you have a large cushion of casino money, I don't understand when you'd want to employ it in the first place. Stick to the basic strategy, make minimum (or comfortable) bets, make $$$. That's my advice anyway.

Unfortunately I am unable to do the math to answer your question, but www.wizardofodds.com probably can, or already has. It's a good sight for odds related FAQs etc. Even if it doesn't answer your question it is a good read, look under the BJ FAQ.[/url]

djbruxism

01-08-2007, 03:18 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2006

Posts: 69

you'd want to do it as a way of making over and above what the casino bonus is.

There are 2 main reasons i think it might actually be suited to bonus whoring is....

a) bonuses give you a bigger bankroll. since the martingale is, by definition, a perfect system for a person with an infinite bankroll, the bigger your bankroll is the less likely you are of busting using the system.

b)The wagering requirement offers a time limit. The martingale system WILL inevitably fail. In the case of starting with a $200 bankroll, a player will go bankrupt and lose the bonus and his $100 if he loses 8 hands of blackjack in a row(starting with a $1 bet). What i'm looking for is the likelihood of this happening before the wagering requirement is met.

Partial maths done
I think the odds of 8 loses in a row are around 0.4%. but i don't really understand what that means in terms of how many hands should be dealt before you statistically will see it happen.

Making this whole thing even more complicated is the fact that the amount you wager isn't static, so working out how many hands should be dealt to make the wagering requirement, say 20*200=$4000, is beyond my maths skills too.

and the final piece of the puzzle would be...if you don't bust, and you meet that wagering requirement...how much money can you expect to have?

i need some maths wizzes in here!!

swiggidy

01-08-2007, 04:48 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Waiting in the shadows ...

Posts: 3,777

I touched on it here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...315582e7afd5d2

The chance of loosing 8 in a row is 0.505^8 = 0.0039, so that is right.

Now to find the chance of one string of 8 in a row in a set of hands. First, understand that if we play 100 hands in a row there are 92 sequences of 8 hands.
1, 2, ... 8
2, 3, ... 9
...
92, 93, ... 100

We can treat these as independent because we don't know any of the sequences. Obviously, if the sequence starting at 5 is 10110010, then the chance of the sequence starting at 6 being 00000000 is zero. But, since we don't know 5, the chance of 6 being all loses is still .4%.

Since the chance of losing 8 in a row is .4, the chance of not losing 8 in a row is 99.6. The chance of in 200 hands not loosing 8 in a row is 99.6^193 = 44.9%.

You will play more than 200 hands, you will go busto. The martingale system sucks outside of theoretical discussion.

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jyms

01-08-2007, 05:18 PM

#5 (permalink)

Tilting Mod

Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 4,836

when you need to playt $4800 or more in wagers ( some are in the $16000) your looking at busto in no time. that link to wizard of odds actually has a whole section on the martingale system, and it's faults for wagers of this magnitude.

YouTube - Classified - "Oh... Canada" [Official Video]

swiggidy

01-08-2007, 05:42 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Waiting in the shadows ...

Posts: 3,777

Good link, I couldn't find it last time I looked
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

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(")_(")

eeeee

01-08-2007, 11:07 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: SoCal

Posts: 906

Martinaling has its purposes.

That being said, it is not magic. It is a betting system. Betting systems will not increase your EV. Martingaling (just like any non-flat-bet betting system) actually increases your variance.

But that is what martingaling is good for. It's a way to increase variance on purpose, especially when

1) you are playing a non-50-50 game (like Blackjack or VP) Closer to 50/50 are casino war and baccarat and roulette.
2) when a standard deviation event isn't sufficient (T&C's include sticky rules, or w/d minimums.) Most of the time, we are just playing for the bonus; sometimes, you can't have just the bonus.

I'm a know-it-all.

No, really.

djbruxism

01-09-2007, 01:08 AM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2006

Posts: 69

Hmmm, now this puts me in a bit of a pickle. I've made $5000 since i started bonus whoring 7 days ago doing almost exactly what i have described. I suppose i just keep doing it and wait for my comeuppance??

The thing i'm doing is a little different as i'm playing 3 hands of blackjack at once, and i'm doubling the stake only if i lose all 3 hands in one go.

So, if all the maths here is right, i suppose variance has just been good to me?

when i started bonuswhoring, i wanted to finish the whole caper with $3000. After only 8 casinos i'm almost double that.

I'll keep going here, lets see how long my luck can hold out.

I Like Pie

01-09-2007, 11:42 PM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2006

Location: Toronto, Canada

Posts: 399

Quote:

Originally Posted by djbruxism

So, if all the maths here is right, i suppose variance has just been good to me?

Yes, because there are no winning betting systems (I'm talking long term). You are just extremely lucky. Enjoy it.

I'd actually stop doing it right now and just play normally, but that's just me.

swiggidy

01-10-2007, 12:08 AM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Waiting in the shadows ...

Posts: 3,777

Well, you only loose all 3 12.5% of the time. You would have to loose all 3 five times in a row, 0.01%. Over a 1k run (3k hands) it will on happen 90% of the time.

If you want an Xk run just do .9^X.

FWIW, your method will not really shorten your clearing time.

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