Like the TMQ, all picks wrong or your money back! (30% Winni

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 6-14-2
Units Won: -18.83
SageStats ensign_lee


~~~
Holy crap. I have gotten owned this week. Steadily in the red EVERY single week. Not only that, I'm dead last in Journeyman's Pick 4 Contest. So uh, now is as good a time as any to fade me. Sheesh.

Good luck y'all?

~~~
Tampa Bay Moneyline (+130)
2 units at BetTrojan

David Carr is starting today. And the Panthers are still favored? Wow. As a Texans fan, I was able to see just what Carr is capable of. Ever since that primetime game against Denver, he just hasn't been the same. Previously, he was averaging about 270 yds per game. Since then, an extremely underwhelming 170 yards per game.

If you watched him play last year, it would make you want to pull your hair out. He cowered, yes, COWERED in the pocket. His eyes immediately went to the rush. He was never able to read a defense worth anything; if you blitzed him, you owned his face. All he ever did was look for a double/triple covered Andre Johnson.

Now, some pundits may say that it was all the offensive line's fault. Right...the Texans haven't added any new starters on the o-line since last year and look at how Matt Schaub has done. I don't buy that Carr will be instantly revitalized behind center in Carolina.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have shown their mettle lately, blowing away competition that most thought they would lose to (yes. That includes me. hah). Even if they play like an average NFL team, I think they'll be able to take care of business here. This game should be pk with Carr under center, not CAR -3.

~~~
Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+120)
2 units at BetTrojan

Ugh. It disgusts me to make this bet. But if I'm to remain true to what served me so well last year, this game has many classic signs pointing towards ATL. 1) there are about 3 to 4 bets on Houston for every bet on Atlanta. 2) The line has gone from HOU -3 to HOU -2.5. Wah? 3) (and this may not hold as much water with basically an entirely changed team) the Texans have historically done poorly as favorites.

You can be sure I'll be rooting for this bet to lose, which...I guess...means that it is golden. But just 'cause I may be unhappy with it doesn't mean that you have to be.

Now, if you want to look at this game objectively, the Texans are out our #1 RB, #2 RB, #1 (game breaking) WR, #2 (game breaking) WR / PR, #1 C . Are you freaking kidding me? Dammit...We just played an emotional game last week against the Colts...and lost. If there was ever a game for a let-down this season, it will be this week.

Ugh...I feel disgusted betting on Harrington and the Falcons.

~~~

Allrighty. Fade away, boys. At least SOMEONE can be benefiting from my idiocy.

[ensign_lee]

Added:

Minnesota +1 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

This is another anti-public play. I was originally going to lay off this game, but then the wacky line movement happened, with some places moving the game down to pk, despite 2 to 3 bets on GB for every one on MIN.

Also, Pinny is offering GB -1 (+105), which means they're willing to take MIN +1 (-105). Anything that Pinny is willing to take, I am also willing to take.

Go go Minnesota?

[swiggidy]

yeah for bets, boo for texans

[ensign_lee]

yeah for bets, boo for texans

QFT.

Finally, a winning day for me in the NFL. I'll take winning days where I can find them. *phew*

Pretty much sucked watching my Texans lose. 2 units is almost not even a sufficient consolation prize. Blagh. Why'd the anti-public angle have to come into play against THEM, of all teams.

But, like I said, I'll take winning days when I can find them. Yay!

[bigspenda73]

can more things just co wrong for the Texans though? I mean, they did everything wrong today, have all their talent on the offensive side of the ball injured and still were competitive.

NOW GET SOME PRESSURE ON THE OPPOSITION'S QB DAMNIT!

[ensign_lee]

Spenda: indeed, indeed.

~~~

One play for tonight:

Cincy/NE UNDER 54 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

I know that Cincy's defense is supposed to be swiss cheese. I know that the Patriots are supposed to score just a ridiculous amount on Cincy tonight. I know that Cincy's offense is pretty much the only thing that they DO have going for them.

But you know what? I think this total's kinda high. And I think it's artificially high because of the game being on Monday Night and people betting on the Patriots to destroy Cincy tonight.

Now, I could be wrong and this game could go into the stratosphere, but I think that this game will end up being a lot more slow paced than most people think. Plus, the starting RB for Cincy is injured and out. The starting RB for the Patriots is questionable. So is a starting offensive lineman for the Patriots.

And let's look at who the Patriots have played: these defenses have been ripped up by other teams that weren't nearly as talented on offense as the Patriots are supposed to be. NYJ, SD, BUF. Heck, the anemic offenses of the Jets and the Bills were able to put just about 20 on each other.

and let's look at the Bengals: They've played Cleveland, Seattle, and Baltimore. Yes, Baltimore is a good defense; but they were limited in points in that game and had great starting field position handed to them pretty much immediately to start the game. Cleveland? They've been torched for most of the season. Seattle? Never really been known for a stifling defense.

So here's to a tight, close game that ends well under the total of 54.

[swiggidy]

Since I also made this play it's a virtual lock to be wrong, but gl

[bigspenda73]

I like it too, that makes it a trifecta.......

of doom!

[swiggidy]