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Like the TMQ, all picks guaranteed wrong or your money back!

  
 
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ensign_lee
Old 11-11-2007, 03:27 PM     Post subject: Like the TMQ, all picks guaranteed wrong or your money back! #1 (permalink)  
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SageStats ensign_lee


~~~
Had an up and down week last week, finishing in the red about 1 unit. Too bad my 3 unit under play on Denver/Detroit didn't come through, since Denver kept trying to score and made tons of costly mistakes in the process. Just a ridiculous amount o fpoints in the 4th quarter of that game, but oh well...stuff happens.

On to this week:

~~~
Miami Dolphins Moneyline (+125)
5 units at BetTrojan

The number moved off of 3 to 2.5, despite there being about 3 bets on Buffalo for every 1 on Miami. Plus, Miami's coming off a bye, so they'll have had extra time to prepare for this game and snap this 8 game losing streak. If they can't get it done against the Bills, well then sucks to be me.

Arizona -1.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

The line started off at Detroit -1, where it stayed for about 12 hours, before somebody pounded the line and made it into Arizona -1. From there, the line has gone to Arizona -1.5. All the while, there have been bets pouring in on Detroit.

I think that there has been a public overreaction to the Lions dismantling of the Bills. A lot of things had to go right for them in that game for the score to end up the way that it did, and well...they happened. Going into a road environment, I think that they'll lose some of that edge. Plus, the Lions haven't been the best road team and so I expect their performance to dip. Also, I believe that they may go into this game a little overconfident.

But bottom line is the reverse line movement with about 75-80% of the bets on Detroit. Plus, when I first saw the line, I was like "What? Detroit is a 1 pt. dog? Obviously, the play is Detroit", which usually ends up badly for me. hah.

Atlanta Moneyline (+170)
2 units at BetTrojan

This bet was made purely because Pinny was offering Carolina moneyline at -170. Any bet that Pinny is willing to take on is one I'm willing to take on as well. Plus, with them holding +3.5 (-118) and theGreek holding +3.5 (-120) while everyone else is holding steady at +3.5 (-110), I have the sharp leans to consider as well. I'd feel better if David Carr were playing, but hey...can't have everything in your favor. For now, either an injured and under-practiced Testaverde will start, or an undrafted free agent QB will start. Either way, neither of them have been on this team long enough to have established anything resembling chemistry on the offensive side of the ball.

This is really more to fade Carolina rather than go with Atlanta.

Chicago -3.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Unlike 96% of the country, I watched the Houston Texans/Oakland Raiders game last week. I saw firsthand Ron freaking Dayne put up over 100 yards on this defense. I saw the offensive coordinator of the Raiders completely unable to adjust to our star CB Dunta Robinson going out with injury. No in-game adjustments + pretty terrible running defense = a losing football team. Even with CHicago's woes, I believe that they can take care of business here in Oakland. The public being on this with me doesn't worry me quite that much, since the line moved the way you would have expected it to, from -3 to -3.5. Shame I didn't get that -3...


Pittsburgh -10 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Pittsburgh just plays monstrously well at home. Cleveland has been doing well as of late, but I'm still not impressed. I think Pittsburgh is able to roll all over the Browns here, and show why they belong in the class of the AFC right along with the Pats, Colts, and (to some extent), the Chargers.

New Orleans -10 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

This is just another bet fading the Rams. When you have no offensive line, you have no way to utilize your awesome WR's or your amazing RB. You just get squished repeatedly by even the most basic defenses. Honestly, I was going to make this a much larger play, but the line movement from -13 to -10.5 (I don't really know why BetTrojan is hanging a -10, but I was happy to take it) made me quite nervous. Action is about split on this game, with a slight edge to New Orleans, so I was like "wah?!??!" That, plus Pinny has been holding the worst prices on St. Louis all week. I don't especially like going against the Pinny Lean.

Green Bay -5.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Minnesota does well against teams that try to run the ball. They don't handle the pass very well at all. Well, let's look at teh Green Bay Packers: all pass, scant runs. The weakness of the Vikings defense plays right into the strength of the Packers offense.

Now, let's look at the other half of the game: Minnesota offense vs. Packers defense. The Packers defense has been a huge reason that they've been winning this year. If you've seen them contain other teams running backs, you'll see why I believe that they're up to the task of handling Adrian Peterson. The recipe for stopping the Vikings offense is to collapse that line, kill the running lanes, and force Adrian Peterson to settle for 1 and 2 yard gains. That passing game is not going to be able to handle the full load of carrying the Vikings offense.

So therefore, Green Bay -5.5

~~~
I may have a bet on the Chargers later; we'll see.

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ensign_lee
Old 11-11-2007, 04:55 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I'm buying back my Pittsburgh -10 (-105) bet with:

Cleveland +10 (-110)
1 unit at BetTrojan

The fact that Pinny and theGreek seem to be holding leans against Pittsburgh now is taking me off this game.

I am also buying back my NO -10 (-105) bet with:

St. Louis +10.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Same reasoning with the Pinny lean and theGreek lean. Plus, Pinny is offering NO -10.5 (+109), which means that this bet would be scalpable if I still had access to Pinny. In other words, I'm getting a bet at greater than what Pinnacle would take it with.

So yeah.

~~~
Yes, I know I've locked in a loss for the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game. Yes, I know the only way I can win money in the NO/STL game is if STL wins by exactly 10.

But I think that it's worth it to buy back what could possibly be losing positions.

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ensign_lee
Old 11-12-2007, 12:03 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Shame that Miami couldn't pull out their first win, but...them's the ropes.

For tonight, I'm taking

San Diego Moneyline (+167)
1 unit at Justbet

If you have access to a book giving you +170, more power to you. Too bad I don't. Shame.

I think that Indianapolis probably had a few distracted days of practice this week, and that will ultimately be their shortomcing against eh Chargers here. -3.5 away favorites? Damn. The Colts are good, for sure, but not THAT good.

The Chargers, I think will have gotten back down to basics this week and will come out inspired tonight. I truly believe they were caught completely offguard by that Minnesota Vikings team that just ran the ball down their throats.

The line has moved from -3 to -3.5 on public money, iwht about 3 to 4 bets on Indy for every bet on San Diego. At +167, I'll take this bet; I believe that San Diego wins this enough times to make this profitable.

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ensign_lee
Old 11-12-2007, 12:20 AM #4 (permalink)  
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...
make that TWO UNITS

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grnydrowave2
Old 11-18-2007, 11:22 PM #5 (permalink)  
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No picks today?
<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
 
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