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[ensign_lee]

YTD: 1-8-1
Units Won: -13.12

SageStats ensign_lee


For more detailed analysis of my picks, click the graph! (It will automatically update as the games are played)

~~~
Well, last week was pretty terrible for me. Fading the public got my teeth kicked in in a big way. Jacksonville allowed a ridonkulously high number of rushing yards to Tennessee, and Oakland was well...Oakland. I guess I did end up shooting myself in the face by adding an additional unit on that after all. And that last second loss to the Broncos by the Bills definitely didn't help at all either.

But hey; it's Week 1 of a 17 week season. And that's why we have bankroll management; to protect ourselves against weeks like that. Onward and upwards!

~~~
So, on to the good stuff:

Cincinnati Bengals -6 (-110)
5 units at Skybook

I will probably lessen my exposure on this this closer to gametime and shoot for a middle, making this a 2 or 3 unit play in the end. I just don't see how Cleveland will be able to keep up, especially since they traded away their starting QB IN THE SECOND WEEK OF THE SEASON???!! That screams desperation to me; what is going on over there? The Browns showed last week that they really can play as badly as they look on paper. Wow. Meanwhile, Cincinatti, even after coming out somewhat flat in their season opener, has shown that their defense is capable of big plays and their offense is still capable of putting points on the board.

Still...80-90% of the public is on Cincy with me. Eeep. The line's moved from the -6.5's widely available to either juiced 6.5's or 7's. At least the line is behaving like it should. If I can get -6 and +7.5, life will be great. If you have an account at Skybook, I'd utilize that half point if I were you.

New York Jets +10 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

New York Jets +6 .5(-115) 1st Half
2 units at JustBet

Baltimore is laying 10 points? Are you kidding? When the line came out at -11, I was like "wah?" I thought for sure that public money had forced it down, but alas, the action seems just about divided right now. I wish I'd taken this at +11 or +10.5. Oh well.

But back to the original subject. Baltimore is laying 10 points? With either an injured McNair going out there or Kyle Boller? I think the Jets have a good shot at winning this game, and if they don't, I fully expect this game to be a tight one. At the very least, it shouldn't be a ridiculously high scoring affair that would blow a +10 out of the water.

Same goes for the +6.5 at halftime. I think that the Jets are more than capable of winning at halftime or having the score be tied. I don't think that they would be down by 7 enough times at half to make this bet unprofitable.

~~~
Those are all I have for right now. I think I'll lay off the anti-public bets unless there is reverse line movement for right now. They burned me pretty badly last week.[/b]

[ensign_lee]

St. Louis / San Francisco UNDER 44 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Doesn't this total seem a bit high for anyone? 44, really? I know Frank Gore can run the ball, but I don't think he'll do well enough to get the pressure completely off of Alex Smith. Lots of runs for short yardage should theoretically help the under.

Meanwhile, I think that San Francisco's defense has improved enough so that Marc Bulger, his receivers, and Stephen Jackson all don't automatically run roughshod all over them.

Plus, I'm following a capper that I do respect, so that was the thing that pushed me over the edge, as well as the Pinnacle holding the line at 43.5 while everyone else has it at 44.

So uh, yay under?

[ensign_lee]

Tennessee Titans +7 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

I was going to wait until tomorrow, but this line looks only to be dropping at this point. In case nobody noticed last week, Jacksonville gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week to Tennessee. How do you beat the Colts? You run on them and make Peyton Manning antsy by making him play catchup after pacing on the sidelines for awhile.

Plus, this also has the anti-public factor, with about 2 bets on Indy for every one bet on Tennessee. If this line does indeed drop, weeeeeh.

Pinnacle has a slight lean on Tennessee, holding -110 even with everyone else. TheGreek has Tennessee at -120. Skybook has Tennessee at -115. These books all have linesmakers whose opinions I respect. And if you care what BetCris's linemakers have opinions on, they are holding Tennessee at +6.5.

All this adds up to a two unit play for me. As much as I hate the Titans, I have to go with them here...I guess. (You don't know how much it hurts me to say that as a Texans fan)

[ensign_lee]

San Diego Chargers M/L (+178.36)
1 unit at matchbook

I really think that the distraction of the whole "signal recording" episode this week has distracted the Patriots this week. While they were busy dealing with that, the Chargers were busy getting ready to play New England. I think that San Diego has about a 50/50 shot here of winning this game, and so +182 is a +EV bet for me.

[ensign_lee]

I've decided to hedge my original Cincinnati bet, but not completely.

To offset my original CIN -6 (-110) bet for 5 units, I am adding:

CLE +7 (+100.94)
3 units

I still think that Cincinnati can take care of business, but I don't want to be as exposed as I was on this heavily public play. If the game happens to land on 6 or 7, yippee!

[ensign_lee]

Am going to add another unit on tonight's game:
San Diego M/L (+182.28)
1 unit at matchbook

averaging the two, that makes my total position on the game equal to:
San Diego M/L +180.32
2 units at matchbook