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zook
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12-06-2006, 05:27 PM
Post subject: Interesting line @ Pinny
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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The Cle/Pit line for tonight is now +9(-129)/-9(+121) @ Pinny. Weird b/c it's 7.5 at almost every other book and if you buy/sell points at Pinny down to 7.5, that's the only way to get reasonable juice (-116/+101). Why the hell would Pinny do this, I was wondering... poked around and found this explanation on another forum:
Quote:
This is Pinnacle's M.O. They rarely ever post a line of 7.5, 8, or 8.5. Instead, they move the line up to 9 and adjust the vig. They don't want the world teasing those lines down and getting the 3, 4, 6, and 7. Teasing down 6 points from 7.5, 8, or 8.5 can be more profitable for the bettor than playing the teams straight up. When you tease up from 9 to 15, your advantage is significantly less, and you're best off not teasing at all. Smartest book on the planet.
You can actually use this knowledge to your advantage in that, when they do post a 7.5 and keep it there all week (see Indy last week), they're more or less begging for your money. Sure fire sign to take the dog.
Also, buying down reduces your odds at Pinny because the "-104 style" juice only applies to the default line. Nearly any line you choose via the dropdown menu reduces your odds by 5-6 cents on the dollar and makes the Pinnacle lines equivalent to the lines at the other books.
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Interesting and it makes some sense. At first it seemed to me like charging all that juice on Cleveland bets meant the Pinny lean was on Cleveland, but after reading this it seems like they really don't want people to tease Pittsburgh down. I'm sticking with my Cle +7.5 bet... was thinking about upping it, but maybe I'll stand pat now.
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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You could have just asked here.  Yeah; they do it for teasers.
Of course, the fact that the +7.5 on CLE costs -116 at Pinny while at -110 for other books could be another nugget to take from that.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I like this line even more now that I know Troy Palamalu is out as well as Hines Ward. Rookie quarterback not being hounded by TP, that'll be a lot of weight off of his shoulders.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Thx lee. Line down to Cle +7 (+100) at Pinny. Thinking about the M/L +285. You playing this game lee?
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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I'll prbably be on CLE +7.5, if anything, just because of Pinny.
Initially, I was going with the Steelers, since I'd like tot ake the more experienced team on a short week. But Pinny said 'sure...bet on PIT. You know you want to' with that line and I got scared.
We'll see. Can't even see the game (thanks a lot NFLN).
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