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How's this Arb on the superbowl?

  
 
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Harry
Old 02-01-2007, 09:24 PM     Post subject: How's this Arb on the superbowl? #1 (permalink)  
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Indianapolis -7.0/Ov 48.5 (to win) +300 $20.00
Indianapolis -7.0/Un 48.5 (to win) +260 $22.22
Chicago +7.0 vs Indianapolis -109 $63.64


Did I do this correctly? Is this +EV?
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ensign_lee
Old 02-01-2007, 10:28 PM #2 (permalink)  
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ok. possible scenarios:

Indy wins by 7: all bets tie
Indy wins by more than 7, game goes over: +60, -22.22, -63.64 = loss
Indy wins by more than 7, game goes under: -20, +57.77, -63.64 = loss
Indy fails to cover: -20, -22.22, +59.39 = gain

So you only make money if Chicago covers.

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elipsesjeff
Old 02-02-2007, 12:16 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Are my calculations right?

If Bears cover, he wins $16, if Indy covers he loses like $25. So, this is like saying he is getting Bears +7 for -150?

Otherwise, that bet blows.


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Harry
Old 02-02-2007, 12:39 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Wow I really f*cked that up. I was thinking the two parlays would average into one bet for colts -7 at good odds, and then I'd hedge that with the bears +7. I must have screwed up the math or something....

I have $22 left in my balance at Matchbook... anyway I can hedge some of this out to make it less -EV?

Edit: I just threw my last 22 on Bears ML.... gambooooooool!
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