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metaxy6

02-08-2006, 02:39 PM Post subject: Horseracing Experiment

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As I mentioned in an NCAA post, the racebook has been pretty good to me. I've spent a good deal of time learning to cap ncaabb and after 2 weeks have a whopping 1.5 units to show for it. 3 days of just playing picks from a horse capper has produced 5.5 (smaller) units profit. As much as I'd rather put $ where I personally can see the edge, results don't lie.

One advantage on a horse wager is that you often get + odds, rather than the - odds of other sports plays. This means that most 2-2 days will yield a net profit. Odds also make for a variety of plays - you can play favorites hard and take small shots w/ good odds, etc...

So, with a little head start, I'm going to run it out for the rest of the week as a kind of experiment to see if this can really be profitable over time.
I'll post the plays and results in this thread and maybe get some discussion about horse racing going, maybe get some more picks going, or maybe help others make some $...

Today's picks:
2 u plays
Golden Gate, Race 4, #4 (Bye Bye Birdie) (opening odds: 6/5)
Penn National, Race 6, #8 (Sterling Wisdom) (5/2)
Santa Anita, Race 4, #6 (Sigfredo) (4/5)
1 u plays
Gulfstream Park, Race 1, #1 (Storm a Brewin) (8/5)
Turfway Park, Race 6, #8 (Licole) (3/1)
Aqueduct, Race 5, #1 (Chazal) (6/5)

Note: today's plays alone stake more than the profits I've made so far, since all previous plays were at a flat 1u. If at any time losses exceed 15 u, game over. If wins exceed 15 u, then the press is on.

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kling

02-08-2006, 02:46 PM

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Location: Philly, PA

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Growing up around a race track (Saratoga Springs) I watched my dad frequently participate in racebooks. That being said, he was pretty good actually. He's long since retired from gambling, and I've tried to get him to give me tips, but to no avail... he doesn't want me gambling, period. Anways, it's something I've always wanted to get into, so would you be willing to give me any tips, Met? There's a few turf clubs that I know of, plus Philadelphia Park is pretty close to me.

aka wildwest15
They all know me as a small timer, but that's about to change.

metaxy6

02-08-2006, 02:55 PM

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Kling - really I'm just picking up these picks from an online race capper.
I also spent some time around tracks as a kid, but can't say that I know much. I'm basically the public that fills up the OTB on the big races...(albeit the one cashing exotic plays while the regulars bemoan their luck!)

But I'm willing to be the canary in the mine and see if straight picks (not really much opp for exactas, etc) can produce good results over time online. Also willing to take advice and do some more research if things get rolling.

Grand_MasterB

02-08-2006, 07:03 PM

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Are all of these just straight Win wagers? Place? Show? Ill ride your tail for a couple of units. why the hell not!

metaxy6

02-08-2006, 08:01 PM

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B -yep - just straight wagers on Place, though nothing's wrong w/ Show and I may start using that instead.
1-1 so far today - with the Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park horses already gone off.

metaxy6

02-09-2006, 02:02 AM

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Results: 3-3, +1 u
Golden Gate, Race 4, #4 (Bye Bye Birdie) W (paid: 7/5)
Penn National, Race 6, #8 (Sterling Wisdom) L (show)
Santa Anita, Race 4, #6 (Sigfredo) L (show)

Gulfstream Park, Race 1, #1 (Storm a Brewin) L
Turfway Park, Race 6, #8 (Licole) (3/1) W (paid 8.50/5)
Aqueduct, Race 5, #1 (Chazal) W (paid:6-5)

As noted, two of those horses showed when I was betting place. Show bet would have given up some odds, but got a 5-1 result - and won the 2 big bets back for me. So, it's going to be place from here on.

Horseracing ytd: 9-6, + 6.5 u

metaxy6

02-09-2006, 11:58 AM

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Today's plays:

2u
Aqueduct Race 2 #5 Jersey Gia (opening odds: 7/5)
Charles Town Race 4 # 2 Reservations Only (6/5)
Evangeline Downs Race 8 #6 Miss Crane (9/5)
Santa Anita Race 4 #7 Fletchers Cove (8/5)
1u
Tampa Bay Downs Race 9 #1 Great Plains (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 9 #3 Humbolt Belle (2/1)

metaxy6

02-10-2006, 03:28 AM

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1st off night in the racebook:
1-4, 1 scratch; winner (jersey gia) went off at basically 1:1.
-4u
ytd:10-10, +2.5 u

metaxy6

02-10-2006, 01:25 PM

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Friday's Picks:
2u
GoldenGate r1 #3 RioRosie (8/5)
GulfstreamPark r2 #2 Mediterranean Sea (9/5)
OaklawnPark r1 #2 Lanny'sagolddigger (5/2)
CharlesTown r9 #6 Hemmingsway (8/5 (more like a 1u play, but miskeyed it at 2u - last 3 finishes: 02-04-01)
1u
PennNational r3 #7 Colorado River (5/2)
TurfParadise r1 #6 Causetic Fuhr (2/1)
1u longshot play
Oaklawn r2 #6 Ducks Appeal (10/1)

Just for the record (not playing these but want to track the cappers),
2 nice exacta boxes:
Golden Gate r5 #6,2,3
Santa Anita r2 #4,2,1

Grand_MasterB

02-10-2006, 01:57 PM

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hey met where do you book your horse bets online at? ive never done any online horse betting. also who are these cappers you are looking at and where are you getting the info, if you dont mind.

10-10 and +2 units is a pretty good start for a week. especially considering you just took at -4 unit hit. Hope the winning keeps up!

metaxy6

02-10-2006, 02:11 PM

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All through Bodog's racebook B. If the results keep up for awhile though, I'll move some $ into either BetCris or Nine.com, as I noticed that they offer rebates for horse wagers.
I'm pretty pleased with the results, and with a little cushion and some records on the cappers, would like to hit some multi-plays.
Here's what I'm working with:

http://users.rcn.com/aplus/page4.htm
http://www.equibase.com/products/freepicks.cfm#SA_n

At the 1st one, I basically have just been looking for horses that show top3 finishes over the last 3 races and don't have huge gaps or really short turnarounds since their last race. Also prefer "closers" or "wire to wire" to "early speed" or "runs evenly."
The people on the 2nd one generally offer decent summary analysis.

Anyone please feel free to add any resources you dig up -

metaxy6

02-11-2006, 04:02 PM

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Bounced back w/ a good day yesterday:

W Mediterranean Sea 6/5 2u
W Lanny'sagolddiger 6/5 2u
W Rio Rosie 5.25/5 2u
W Colorado River 5.25/5 1u (edit: mistyped this as a 2u win).
L Hemmingsway 2u
L Causetic Fuhr 1u
L Ducks Appeal 1u

otd 4-3, + 4u.

The a+ cappers were 9-4 overall.
The posted multiplays didn't hit, but others played by the Equibase cappers did.

I'll post back today's action in a while.

<add>
Today's action:
2u
Golden Gate R2 #6 Specialist (opening odds: 2/1)
Penn National R8 #6 Harper's Content (2/1)
Turf Paradise R1 #6 Restrider (2/1)
1u
Turfway Park R5 #3 Synhawk (5/2)
Portland Meadows R6 #3 McAllister Creek (7/5)
Aqueduct R2 #4 Marco's Tale (8/5)
Oaklawn Park R9 #2 Cougar Cat (8/1)
Santa Anita R4 #1 Racketeer (9/5)

metaxy6

02-12-2006, 03:28 PM

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Another winning day at the races!!

W Specialist 6.50/5 2u
W Restrider 5.50/5 2u
W Marco's Tale 5.25/5 1u
W Racketeer 5.50/5 1u

L Harper's Content 2u
L Synhawk 1u
L Cougar Cat 1u

NO ACTION McAllister Creek
McAllister Creek actually showed but I think that the track did not allow show bets because there were so few entries.
So, 4-3 on the day, +3u.
Overall, 18-16 +9u.

Today's Action:
2u
SA r8#7 Play Ballado (4/1)
PM r3#1 Kingjames Delivers (3/2)
Phil r7 #5 Honest Appeal (9/5)
OP r1 #2 Dancingwithpassion (3/1)
Aqu r2# 3 Bold Love (5/2)

metaxy6

02-12-2006, 06:34 PM

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Don't know what's up w/ Pha and Aqu tracks on Sunday, so for now
no action on Bold Love and Honest Appeal.

Instead put 2u on GP r4 #7 Pass the Pepper, and got the W, paid 8/5.

Someone could have hit nicely if they'd played the multi 7,2,8 as recommended here:
http://www.equibase.com/products/freepicks.cfm#GP_zm

The $1 trifecta 7,2,8 ($6 total wager if boxed) hits for $574. $1 Exacta box ($6 wager) good for $135.

I really liked the exacta box, but it was the very very last minute and I didn't think there'd be enough time to key all the plays, so just straight wagered it. Not crying - well, maybe a little! - just saying that there's some $ to be made on the horses.

Eric

02-12-2006, 07:08 PM Post subject: Re: Horseracing Experiment

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Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

Santa Anita, Race 4, #6 (Sigfredo) (4/5)

My high school was minutes from Santa Anita Race Track. It was pretty interesting in home room, some of the guys would go through the race information in the newspaper every morning.

metaxy6

02-13-2006, 12:19 AM Post subject: Re: Horseracing Experiment

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric

It was pretty interesting in home room, some of the guys would go through the race information in the newspaper every morning.

Ha. That would be so funny. Don't know if y'all could actually go, but
I seem to remember placing my own bets when I was a kid going to the track w/ my godmother. Wonder if all tracks are that lax about age req.s ??

So, it was another good day, with the winners paying nicely.
Results - all of these were 2u plays:
W GP r4#7 Pass the Pepper paid 8/5
W SA r8#7 Play Ballado paid 23.50/5
L OP r1#2 Dancingwithpassion
L PM r3#1 Kingjames Delivers

Then, after just missing a play on the early multi that would have made my week and with one decent win in the books, I decided to go for some multi action. Played 1 exacta, 1 exacta box, and 1 trifecta box - all at the min bet (it's better value to play less $ and play the "box" so your picks can finish in any order). I actually did hit the trifecta, but at a PALTRY 2/1 payout:

Date placed:
Feb 12, 2006 4:47p
Date settled:
Feb 12, 2006 5:02p
Trifecta # 31178951
Horse Racing
Golden Gate Fields race #3 $1.0 Box TRI 1,3,4 Sun@4:52p
Outcome:
Win
Paid $12.30

Yes - that's right - just missed playing a $1 trifecta box ($6 wager) that paid $574 and came back to hit another trifecta that paid $12.

Oh well, it covered the day's multiplay action.
Straight wagers:
2-2, +8u
Multiplays:
1-2, + 1u

Ytd straight: 20-18, + 17u
Ytd multi: 1-2, + 1u
Overall: + 18u

Seriously - in the future, I'll look for better value in the multi's. If you're not just playing for an all out score, then you might reasonably expect to hit say 1 of every 5 or 6 multis, and should play the ones that will make that or better to pay for the misses.

metaxy6

02-15-2006, 01:33 PM

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I'm an idiot...I counted wrong.
Oh well, I may still be up overall on horses but the wins noted above were tracked on paper, and they're not right.

The problem with my strategy was that straight wagers on show are not a way to grind out profit. They just don't pay well enough. It's like saying that you'll grind out a profit finishing 3rd in SnG's to roll your entry into MTT's. If you're not hitting 1st or 2nd place $, it won't work unless you money the vast majority of them.
I hit a few nice shots that paid the show well, and that kept me rolling, but it's not realistic to expect those to keep up.

So there goes the plan of grinding out a small daily profit on straight wagers to roll into multiplays.
Multi's by themselves are ok - but you do have to hit at around 4/1 or better to keep up. There's always the chance that the one you do hit goes off at like 2/1 and that's not paying for the misses.

NoSocksLLC

02-16-2006, 08:55 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

B -yep - just straight wagers on Place, though nothing's wrong w/ Show and I may start using that instead.
1-1 so far today - with the Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park horses already gone off.

Are you wagering in bulk at the beginning of the day, or are you tracking your wagers, and betting at post?

Honestly, pool selection depends on your handicapping style more than anything. However, by passing the win pool can prove quite costly, especially if you bet into a lot of favorites.

If you are going to start playing the ponies, there's only one place to go: http://www.pinnaclesports.com -- they offer a 7% rebate and are lockdown on customer service.

I could blabber on, but I'll stop at that. I've been playing the ponies for about 10 years, and they currently provide the majority of my income. I will say that it's a fun lifestyle, but it's also A LOT of work. I'd say I spend a good 40-60 hours a week handicapping, watching replays, and manning the computer during race time. Just trying to live the dream though!

Best of luck,
EW

metaxy6

02-16-2006, 07:03 PM

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Thanks a lot for the input NoSocks - much appreciated. Welcome to the
forum.
In response to the question - I started tracking wagers throughout the day rather than just slapping everything down, because post odds tell me where the values were. Sound strategy?

I would definitely appreciate any insights - especially into betting strategies - since I don't expect to pick up handicapping anytime soon.
It got to be difficult - and I don't really expect to be putting enough $ in to make that time investment worthwhile. I posted links to the cappers -
A+ (software program, right?) and the various ones at Equibase, especially the Walker Group. Any others you would recommend?

So, can selections that are landing ITM about 70% of the time pay?
What's the play at that clip? Their pool picks are 65% or better favorites. Am I right in concluding that Show wagers won't pay long-term? Is Win the better play? Does it depend on the odds?

Also - do you have any general guidelines for proportion of pool plays v multi-plays? Any suggestions for getting max value on multi's - like when to box (always?), when to throw in a longshot, or when to throw in a fav? Is this just way dependent on your read of the race?

I have a ton of questions and would encourage you to "blabber on" at length!

NoSocksLLC

02-17-2006, 04:58 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

Not only a sound strategy, but in reality, the ONLY way if you are actually trying to earn a profit. You can make a spot play without watching the board here and there, but if you do it consistently, you'll run yourself into trouble. Actually, I have stopped attending the races live (unless I want to head out just to enjoy it) because it's much easier to keep tabs on your wagers from home.

However, in addition to tracking the Win Odds (the odds which you can always see) you'll want to learn how to quickly determine MINIMUM place and show prices.

Since there are multiple payouts from the pools, the prices are actually dependent upon not only your horse, but also the horses that "place" or "show" with them. Therefore, you compute the minimum because it's the most sound way to make a decision -- if, in fact, some longshots run with your horse -- then you'll do even better.

First off, you'll need to find the WPS pools. They are all over the place, and not really that hard to obtain...

So, say the place pool is $46,700. Right off the top comes the track's "rake" -- also called a takeout. It generally ranges from 14-18% on WPS wagers, so 17% is a pretty good guideline. Therefore, $7,939 goes to the track.

So, now, there's $38,761 to be paid to the winners. Let's say your horse has $8,900 in his place pool. NOW, here's the somewhat tricky part: you want to pair your horse with the most favored horse in the pool. You do this because this is the WORST possible outcome. For the example, let's say that there's a horse with $16,000 in his place pool -- and that's the favorite.

Next step: because the winner's wagers are returned IN ADDITION to the payoff, you must subtract out the winning bets. So -- $38,761 minus $8,900 and $16,000, which leaves$13,861 to be distributed evenly amongst the place horses...OR, $6,930.50 to each winner.

Now, to determine how much each winning dollar on your horse gets, just divide the $6,930.5 into the $8,900 -- leaving approximately 77.8 cents on the dollar in profit. Since the base wager is generally $2, the profit will be about $1.55.

Just two more steps! Now, you add your $2 wager back in -- to get $3.55. FINALLY, you apply what's called breakage. Most tracks go by a 20 cent breakage, which means the payoff would be shown on the tote as $3.40. This is a concept that still persists from the days where everything was done by hand, and pennies would've hugely complicated the process. However, these days, some tracks have gone to a 10 cent breakage, and there's even talk of maybe someday eliminating it.

ALL IN ALL, this is important, because you have to know what kind of Place or Show bets you are making to determine whether or not it's wise. Once you know how to do this, you can knock out these calculations in mere seconds. Alternatively, if you are spreadsheet inclined, you can also compute them that way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

I would definitely appreciate any insights - especially into betting strategies - since I don't expect to pick up handicapping anytime soon.
It got to be difficult - and I don't really expect to be putting enough $ in to make that time investment worthwhile. I posted links to the cappers -
A+ (software program, right?) and the various ones at Equibase, especially the Walker Group. Any others you would recommend?

I agree with you on this one. Probably best to stay with the pros, unless you are ready to invest some large time handicapping. Honestly, the people that handicap 10-15 minutes a race, and think they know what they are doing, are really doing a disservice to themselves.

As far as betting strategies, I generally apply a derivation of a progressive betting style. However, that really only works if you are a win bettor, because then you know your expected payoff.

I'll bet a sequence like this: $30/$30/$60/$60/$90/$90/$120 -- and if I miss seven races, I'll hang it up, and take my loss. The key to this, however, is that I RARELY bet horses under 3 or 4 to 1. For favorites, I'm not sure if something like this would really work.

The other option I also apply is common sense. I would suggest that you find some sort of computer handicapper that lists their PERCENTAGE chance of winning. Why? Because then you can compute the expected value of the wager, and determine whether or not it makes sense.

For example, if a capper thinks a horse will win 33% of the time, he's a breakeven prop at 2/1. Therefore, if you think the capper is good, and horse turns up at 3/1 or 7/2 -- you go forward with the wager. This is called an overlay.

Just like poker, the bigger the overlay, the more you bet. Now -- it's a give and take process, but after you master it, it's probably the best way to go.

Finally, when you are just starting, I would pretty much suggest a flat bet style. Just bet a unit a race, and try to turn a profit. As long as you attempt to maintain a minimum price (say 1/1 or 3/2, for example), it's pretty easy for you to know how the percentage you need to cash on to win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

So, can selections that are landing ITM about 70% of the time pay?
What's the play at that clip? Their pool picks are 65% or better favorites. Am I right in concluding that Show wagers won't pay long-term? Is Win the better play? Does it depend on the odds?

As a guideline, I play horses this way (but this can change based on the place and show pools -- you always need to be aware of place and show pools that seem to differ from the win pools).

4/1 or below: win only -- generally, place and show just don't cut it on these horses, and they have a higher percentage shot of winning anyway.
4/1 to 8/1: win and place.
8/1 to 12/1: win and show.
above 12/1: across the board.

At 70% ITM, show will probably not turn you a profit, as you would need an average payout of $3 just to get you there. Place is also questionable, because you'd probably need $3.80 or $4 to bring you a profit.

In reality, betting strong win choices that you can catch at above even or 3/2 is probably the best chance of longterm profit on those selections. As I said above, it really helps to find computer-based selections, because you have a better idea of the "fair" price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

Also - do you have any general guidelines for proportion of pool plays v multi-plays? Any suggestions for getting max value on multi's - like when to box (always?), when to throw in a longshot, or when to throw in a fav? Is this just way dependent on your read of the race?

The main problem with multiple horse wagers is that they are harder to value. The top three finishers could be 2/1, 5/2, and 5/1 in two consecutive races, and the trifecta might pay $100 in one race, and $400 in another.

In reality, there's only one method I've found to cracking these wagers: GET THE FAVORITE OUT. If you have a favorite anywhere in your multi-horse wager, it's almost always an underlay.

Personally, I'm not a big fan of the box. Say you like the 1-2-3 in a race. To box them in a $1 trifecta is $6. Now, that's not a bad play -- BUT -- I'd rather approach the race this way: 1-2/1-2-3/1-2-3-4. That's an $8 play, that allows you to add a horse for fourth. And, third place yields much more unexpected results than first, so it's something to consider.

Generally, I'll only play tris if I really like a horse or two that are longer odds, and then I'll mix them up to the field. Let's say I like the 1 and 2, who are not the favorites, and I don't really like the favorite. I'll play:

1-2/1-2/all
1-2/all/1-2
all/1-2/1-2

If I make dollar combinations, this will cost $36 in an 8 horse field. And, it's a good way to snag a good one.

Overall, there's a million ways to work these bets -- just think about other ways to "beat the box."

Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

I have a ton of questions and would encourage you to "blabber on" at length!

I hope this helped you more than it hurt, and always feel free to ask questions. I've done this way to long for my own good -- and I'll try to answer whatever questions you have.

Best,
EW

metaxy6

02-17-2006, 06:28 PM

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Wow. Very valuable stuff EW, and again much thanks.

It's a helluva lot to digest, but off day on sports betting provides a good chance to try to line up the resources and apply some of this on a sample basis - just to see if I can get a handle on it. Probably will do that for awhile before I snap off a portion of my sports br for horses.

Sure to be a hundred more questions before long.

metaxy6

02-18-2006, 10:11 PM

#22 (permalink)

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Hey EW - Anything jump out at you for what to do with this??

Bet #4 to Win - ?
Bet #2 to Win and Show if it stays up over 8/1 - ?
Bet #7 to Win and Place if it stays between 4/1 and 8/1 - ?

Multi-wise, is the value gone w/ the fav in there?
So - if you're given a fav in a multi and you don't know enough about the race to get the fav out, then just skip it ?

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $3200 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

# 4 RICAL PARADE (ARG) 9/5

# 2 SOFT LIKA ROCK 8/1

# 7 NEWPYS NAKED NOGIN 5/1

RICAL PARADE (ARG) gets the edge as the bet in here. The class rating of today's contest is much lower than his last affair. With a strong 67 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 67. SOFT LIKA ROCK - With a +11 ROI, this jock and handler duo has produced decent gains recently for players. This pony has to be in good form coming back to the track so quickly. NEWPYS NAKED NOGIN - Likely to see a sound performance with the class drop. Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

NoSocksLLC

03-01-2006, 05:54 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Posts: 65

Quote:

Originally Posted by metaxy6

I totally missed this -- sorry.

Firstly, I would probably stay away from betting Portland Meadows. Since the pools are smaller, they are less immune to last minute odds swings that can cause troubles for you.

In a race like this, I would probably go one of two directions, depending on how aggressive you wish to be. The less aggressive option: play that second choice to win and show, as long as he holds fair value. The more aggressive: bet BOTH the 2 and 7 to win, either as flat bets, or in some sort of dutch.

I love multi-win bets, especially if there's a favorite I feel I can beat. People look at me like I'm nuts when I play four different horses to win in a race, BUT, it's been a very profitable angle for me. Essentially, if risk>return, then there's no reason not to make a given decision.

By the way, you are quite correct to stay away from the exotics here. If he puts the fav right on the point, you probably aren't going to find much value. And -- I should point out that 9/5 is a pretty aggressive morning line. In many cases, the entrant will go off at under even (probably more often than not, actually -- and in this case, the horse went postward at 3/5).

Best,
EW

dugan649

10-19-2006, 01:05 PM Post subject: Place and show betting

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should never be done. A horse that pays (3-1) 8.00 to win will likely pay around 4.00 to place and 3.00 to show(depending somewhat on the odds of the other one or two top finishers). So, in a typical 8 horse field, your horse must beat 7 horses to cash you a win ticket. He must beat 6 horses for your place bet to cash, and he must beat 5 horses for you to win your show bet.

So, we can see that , in the show bet, our horse must beat 71% of the remaining horses in order to win 38% of what a win bet would pay. It doesn't work in the long run, and even if it did, you make more money betting to win even though you cash less tickets.

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