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Spanners
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03-22-2007, 05:30 AM
Post subject: help me explain something to a friend
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: new zealand
Posts: 112
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My friend is smart, but he cant grasp this one issue. I cant convince him that Im correct. Ive tried to see his side but as a poker player I just cant agree with it.
We were having an argument about sports betting. I bet $100 on a head to head match, and I bet on the underdog, who were paying $475 for a win. I made the bet because I thought the underdog had a better chance of winning than the odds they were getting.
Him: You should never bet on the underdog. I always bet on whichever team is the favourite.
Me: But I thought they were good odds man.
Him: Yea but theyre the underdog.
Me: Its all about long term.
Him: *picks up the losing ticket* - its not long term. You lost $100 right now.
Me: Ok so lets play a game, we roll a dice. If I get a 6 you give me 1000. If I get 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 I will give you 100. Youre the favourite and Im the underdog.
He is willing to play this game once with me (giving me the 10
00 if I roll a 6), but will not play the game a million times. We calculated the EV and he understands that, and that it is negative expectation in the long run. However, he will still play this game once, and only once, because he is the favourite. He will not play the game twice or more, because "odds of me winning go down the more we play"
His argument is basically that you should never bet on the underdog in sports betting, even if it is a positive EV situation. "Because you can never play in the long term, each sports game is independent and unrelated, so you should always bet the favourite"
I tried to tell him that a lot of "favourite" but -EV bets will combine to make you a loser - you win lots of little bets but lose a big one. But he doesnt grasp the concept of long term. Maybe I couldnt phrase it in the right way. Can someone think of a good example or phrasing?
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Umm, no, you did a good job. Just say to yourself, "you're stupid," and move on.
P.S. The Rockers are awesome.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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I don't understand his logic at all.
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Spanners
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: new zealand
Posts: 112
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Lol george you meanie :P
Yea its hard to explain the way he thinks but he says I did the wrong thing in betting $100 on that underdog.
"Most of the time they lose, and wham you lose $100 and youll never get to bet on that exact game again to make the money back"
Yikes. Anyway I found this online:
Assume I engage in a gambling strategy that has 999 chances in 1,000 of making $1 (event A) and 1 chance in 1,000 of losing $10,000 (event B).
My expecation on this bet is a loss close to -9. The frequency or probability of the loss is totally irrelevant; it needs to be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome. Odds are that we would make money by betting for event A, but it is not a good idea to do so.
This mathematician guy Nikolas Taleb suggests that most people (including those with advanced degrees or MBAs) would be enticed to act on the winning odds (Event A) due to the inordinate focus on the frequency despite the understanding that an occurrence of a low probability event may affect a greater deal relative to the outcome than the combined wins.
So at least it seems like theres other people out there who cant grasp it.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Underdogs never win
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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Tell him to do STAT112 in the second semester
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Pelion
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03-22-2007, 02:02 PM
Post subject: Re: help me explain something to a friend
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#7 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Spanners
His argument is basically that you should never bet on the underdog in sports betting, even if it is a positive EV situation. "Because you can never play in the long term, each sports game is independent and unrelated, so you should always bet the favourite"
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Play the dice game with him but let him use a different die each time. He should be happy with that.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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tell him to go fuck himself.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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bet sports with him. have him give u ridiculous odds on the underdog and make him bet the favorite each time and he will regret. if he rejects this then you can tell him your point is proven.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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wow, nh gabe
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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ship it
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Underdogs never win?
Crap...I need to readjust my betting strategy.
http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978
M/L Underdogs: 12-7
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
bet sports with him. have him give u ridiculous odds on the underdog and make him bet the favorite each time and he will regret. if he rejects this then you can tell him your point is proven.
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wow. good idea.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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SHIP IT
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I still like telling him to go fuck himself better.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,322
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Gabe is so cool.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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givememyleg
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03-23-2007, 03:33 AM
Post subject: Re: help me explain something to a friend
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#17 (permalink)
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
Posts: 5,042
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Play the dice game with him but let him use a different die each time. He should be happy with that.
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ha!
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Spanners
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: new zealand
Posts: 112
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Heh, thanks for the replies. Pelions and gabes arguments were easy ways to explain it..... thanks. He finally conceded defeat and admitted I was right. He always wins arguments with me so it was a good feeling to finally get one back 
And yes Midas, hes already passed first year stats. Mind boggling
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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So did you tell him do go fuck himself?
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Spanners
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: new zealand
Posts: 112
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Nah, Im too nice for that...
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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your friend is an idiot.
some people are so dumb that you can explain the most basic of things to them and they will never understand it. in all likelihood, your friend is one of these people.
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Spanners
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: new zealand
Posts: 112
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Yea, he gets lots of A+ and so on so its funny he couldnt grasp this one
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boost
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Spanners
Yea, he gets lots of A+ and so on so its funny he couldnt grasp this one
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good grades != smart
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