Football (Soccer) Bets

[baron_greenback]

Previously, I've had articles published on sports betting sites, and feel my knowledge of the game is pretty good. However, I've never really attempted to build myself a sports betting bankroll, or practised any structured money management.

So, in this thread, I'll post my tips, and justification, and also some progress. All discussion is most welcome.

15/01/2008

FA Cup

Newcastle vs Stoke City - 4/6 (1.67)

The odds are short, but Newcastle are a division above Stoke, and drew 0-0 away the last time the sides met. Newcastle have faltered recently, but a home record of 5-3-3 is still pretty good.

The major factor, however, is the departure of Sam Allardyce and todays appointment of Kevin Keegan. Long term this is an extremely risky move, but for tonight, it is perfect. The fans will be behind the team (which they haven't been recently) and the players will have been galvanized by the appointment. I'd be surprised if the 50,000+ home fans don't propel what is, on paper, a good (and expensively assembled) side to a comfortable victory in a competition that is very important to them

[baron_greenback]

Newcastle won 4-1, despite having only 10 men for over an hour of the game.

Now that Keegan's back, and with his fondness for attacking football, over 2.5 goals in Newcastle's games will be interesting to keep an eye on.

[baron_greenback]

I know this is after-timing, but I was out so didn't have time to post. My only bet of the weekend was on the Man City - West Ham game.

These teams have already played twice in the last fortnight, with a 0-0 draw followed by a 1-0 win for Man City, so chances of goals are slim.

City have built their success this season on a mean defence, conceding only 7 in 10 games. West Ham are stronger away from home, and it largely due to the fact that they tighten up, and try to play on the break. They have in fact only conceded 8 goals in their 10 away fixtures.

Both teams will play lone strikers who aren't renouned for their goalscoring, and if a winner comes, it is likely to be from a set-piece or a moment of brilliance from a midfielder. Racing Post tips a bet on under 1.5 goals at 7-4, but that doesn't give much room for manouevere. Instead I've gone for under 2.5 goals at 8/13 or 1.61, which isn't great but I don't have time to shop around.


(The game finished 1-1, winning my bet)

[Taxi]

Ill follow this closely - I'm a massive spurs fan myself, any thoughts on the carling cup match on tuesday (from an objective POV obv - my biased POV is pretty useless!)

[baron_greenback]

Taxi - I fancy Spurs to beat Arsenal - they were unlucky not to win the first leg, and are becoming a stronger side under Ramos. Plus, European qualification is a must for a squad of that calibre, and the Carling Cup is their most likely route this season.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa - 21st Jan 08

I think this will be a very exciting, featuring two of the leagues form sides. Villa are better away than at home, their organisation making them difficult to break down, and the pace of Young, Agbonlahor etc being a potent weapon on the counter. Villa have only lost one away game all season, and their 4-5-1 record matches that of Liverpool's home form. With that in mind, I think 8/15 is too short on a home victory.

My bet instead involves goalscorers. Betfred offer an each way first goalscorer, with 1/2 the odds on 1st, 2nd or 3rd scorer. Liverpool have been carried this season by Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard, who between them have scored 18 of the sides 35 goals. In fact, since 20th October, there have only been 3 league games where neither of the two scored, one of which Torres never featured, and in all 3 Liverpool failed to score at all. Invariably, when Liverpool score is it one of their only 2 genuine stars that gets the goal.

Furthermore, betfred are running a promotion on the game, whereby your stake is refunded on all losing first goalscorer bets if Torres scores last. It's unlikely that the match will run to 4 goals, and that Torres will get the 4th, but it's nice to have a little bit of insurance.

Gerrard first scorer (e/w 1/2 - 1,2,3) @6.5
Torres first goalscorer (e/w - 1,2,3) @4.0

Oh, on a side note - I put a small bet on Eto'o being top scorer in the African Cup of Nations, as Cameroon have a very easy group, and should beat whoever they face in the quarters. Plus, if the last ANC is anything to go by, star forwards like Eto'o, Yakubu and Drogba will get the bulk of their teams goals.

[baron_greenback]

A good day today after a loser yesterday.

Spurs were easily too good for a weakened Arsenal team, and won 5-1 (no doubt you were ecstatic with that one Taxi!) As I said, I expect Spurs to be a much better team in the 2nd half of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won the Carling Cup. I also fancy them to do well in the Uefa Cup, especially as they have little to play for in the league. Ramos to make it 3 Uefa Cups in a row?

Eto'o scored both Cameroon's goals even though they lost 4-2 to Egypt. From what I've heard Zidan from Egypt is finally showing the promise he's had for the last 3/4 years. A Moroccan player scored 3 yesterday though, and though I still think Cameroon will qualify, they wont win the tournament, meaning Eto'o will have less games than some of his golden boot challengers.

Even though the logic last night was sound, I think I'm going to steer clear of first scorer bets - it's just too unpredictable.

[baron_greenback]

Wasn't home in time to preview the Chelsea game, but after watching the first 15 mins I took them at 6/4 in running - Everton never looked capable of scoring, and so it proved.

Everton 0 - Chelsea 1

As an aside - Chelsea are very under-rated at the moment - they're on a great run, and Anelka is a brilliant buy. They should be able to cope easily while Drogba's away at the ACN. Everton, on the other hand look a bit impotent without Yakubu - Andy Johnson just isn't good enough to trouble decent defences.

Edit - 1st week's results



I'm currently + £48.79 with 1 £4.26 open bet.

Now all I need is a staking plan, and to avoid first goalscorers

[STILL_mkd]

I want to bet today and tomorrow.
Do you know some matches where you think that will have very goals, and where the both teams will score?
Or can you recommend me some other matches?