|
baron_greenback
|
03-08-2007, 06:42 PM
Post subject: Football/Soccer
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 118
|
|
Hey, I'm from the Uk, and am a regular soccer gambler. I've had a few articles and tips published by sports betting sites and magazines over the last few years.
I've noticed that there isn't very much devoted to european soccer here, so I thought I'd post up a thread with a few picks.
So, kicking off with the Uefa Cup
Rangers vs Osasuna @1.90
Rangers have an imperious home record, and Osasuna are indifferent away from hiome in their respective domestic leagues. Rangers have also managed to excell themselves in the Uefa Cup this campaign, and last time out beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 4-0 at Ibrox. Osasuna meanwhile needed an injury time goal to beat a horrific Bordeaux side. Add to this, the fact that Osasuna are missing 8 first team regualrs, including both first choice strikers, and it all points to a home win.
Newcastle vs AZ Alkmaar @2.10
Alkmaar qaulified for this stage with an up and down tie against Fenerbahce of Turkey. The Turks were 3-1 up at home before Alkmaar scored twice late on to tie the game at 3-3. They then went 2-0 up at home, only to be pegged back to 2-2, and qualify on away goals. Newcastle meanwhile blitzed past mediocre Belgian opposition Zulke Wagerem, and are unbeaten in the competion so far (including a 1-0 victory over Fenerbahce) The English sides home record in the Premierhsip is outstanding, and they'll be looking for their 50,000 strong support to help them to gain an early advantage in the tie.
In the first leg of the Champions League matches 5/8 games ended in draws. I expect other games tonight to be very tight, especially
Paris vs Benfica @3.00
Celta Vigo vs Werder Bremen @3.25
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
Monty9
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: new jwesey
Posts: 255
|
|
Always take the UNDER........
|
|
Why is it a penny for your thoughts but
you have to put your 2 cents in??
Somebody's making a penny!!
|
|
Seasider
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
|
|
Football -
Soccer -
At least round these parts.
Newcastle had a good first few mins, your bet is looking good.
|
|
|
|
ensign_lee
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
|
|
Welcome!
I'm curious to learn about soccer strategies, as I've never bet on that stuff before ever. What do you take into account?
|
|
|
|
Seasider
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Welcome!
I'm curious to learn about soccer strategies, as I've never bet on that stuff before ever. What do you take into account?
|
The first half can be quite tricky if you're pitching against the mound.
|
|
|
|
baron_greenback
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 118
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Welcome!
I'm curious to learn about soccer strategies, as I've never bet on that stuff before ever. What do you take into account?
|
First tip - don't listen to me - only 1/4 tonight 
I'm not too dis-heartened though, and will be posing up some more (mostly domestic) tips over the next few weeks. There is a lot of value in soccer matches, its just a case of trying to work out which facts are best to take into account for a particular side.
|
|
|
|
Seasider
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
|
|
My brother has broken even betting on football over the last year. He recons the value in in division 2-3 matches tho......
|
|
|
|
baron_greenback
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 118
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Seasider
My brother has broken even betting on football over the last year. He recons the value in in division 2-3 matches tho......
|
I do reasonably well, but sometimes I try to bet on too many games/markets.
Often in the lower leagues there are sides who win almost every game, and sides who lose every game (especially in Scotland) which can make for value.
|
|
|
|
baron_greenback
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 118
|
|
Birmingham vs Derby - 2.10
Big bet of the weekend is Celtic vs Rangers @2.00 on Sunday. I'll do a proper write up later.
edited - spelling
|
|
|
|
baron_greenback
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 118
|
|
Barca vs Real Madrid - 1.8
This game is massive at any time, but especially so tonight. Both clubs went out of the Champions League during the weekend - before the quarter finals - which is unthinkable for their supporters. With Sevilla top of La Liga, it's vital that Barca win and get put them under pressure.
The Champions have a 10-2-0 record at home, and have only conceded 5 goals in 12 games. Real madrid, by contrast concede an average of a goal a game, and are missing world player of the year Fabio Cannavaro in defence. The back-ups aren't good enough to contain Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Messi the way Liverpool did, and I think it'll be Barca back at the top of the table by the end of the day.
|
|
|
|
Legendash
|
|
Full House
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Crypto 6max 100NL
Posts: 611
|
|
Can you explain your notation. I live in the UK but don't gamble much and am used to seeing
Celtic win 1/3, rangers win 3/1, draw 7/2
or whatever the odds may be
|
|
"[This theory] is only useful for helping to calculate your luck odds. If you have a good read that you have a numerical advantage against your opponent, that your hand is "luckier"..."
Copyright, Youngdro 2007.
|
|
baron_greenback
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 118
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Legendash
Can you explain your notation. I live in the UK but don't gamble much and am used to seeing
Celtic win 1/3, rangers win 3/1, draw 7/2
or whatever the odds may be
|
It's basically just decimal odds.
3/1 = 4.00
4/5 = 1.8
Basically you multiply the decimal odds by your stake to get potential returns.
So tonight if I bet £100 on Barcelona@1.8, I'll get 1.8 x £100 = £180 back, a profit of £80
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
