|
Fleece
|
12-15-2005, 03:52 AM
Post subject: +EV gambool???
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
|
|
ok your playing who wants to be a millionaire and your on the 250k question. You have absolutely no idea about the answer so you use ur last life line 50/50.
here are your options. gambool for the 250k and possibley drop to 32k or take 125k
would you GAMBOOOOOOL or walk with the 125k???
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
a500lbgorilla
|
|
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
|
|
take the 125k
|
Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
|
|
ProZachNation
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
|
|
ummm if I was say a doctor(what I want to be) I would gambOOl
In college right now I would have to say take the 125k because it would pretty much pay for schooling and leave me w/o a huge debt when I graduate.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
|
|
|
DoGGz
|
|
|
|
Mathematically on the 50/50 your a 50% shot.
So the outcomes are
32
125
250
If you take 125, your always going to make 125k. If you gamb000l, then half the time you make 250 (and MAYBE more if you know the next question) and half the time you make 32. Lets just say you never get the next answer correct. You still average about 140k if you gamble.
Gamble = ev+
|
|
|
|
journey075
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DoGGz
Mathematically on the 50/50 your a 50% shot.
So the outcomes are
32
125
250
If you take 125, your always going to make 125k. If you gamb000l, then half the time you make 250 (and MAYBE more if you know the next question) and half the time you make 32. Lets just say you never get the next answer correct. You still average about 140k if you gamble.
Gamble = ev+
|
very wrong because this isnt a long term game. its a once in a lifetime thing and thats why it makes more sense to take 125k.
assuming you make 100k/year (random number) you greatly buttress your income in a no risk scenario. theres no reason to be a hero if youre not sure.
|
|
|
|
DaNutsInYoEye
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
|
|
Who is the host? Regis Philbin or that woman? Regis' gives off more tells than the fish at a 3/6 B&M game.
|
|
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
|
|
DoGGz
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by journey075
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DoGGz
Mathematically on the 50/50 your a 50% shot.
So the outcomes are
32
125
250
If you take 125, your always going to make 125k. If you gamb000l, then half the time you make 250 (and MAYBE more if you know the next question) and half the time you make 32. Lets just say you never get the next answer correct. You still average about 140k if you gamble.
Gamble = ev+
|
very wrong because this isnt a long term game. its a once in a lifetime thing and thats why it makes more sense to take 125k.
assuming you make 100k/year (random number) you greatly buttress your income in a no risk scenario. theres no reason to be a hero if youre not sure. |
Very Right, because the question was is this an EV decision. This is like telling me your at the WSOP FT and you won't make the EV+ decisions because it's a once and a lifetime chance. "Oh I don't want to bust 9th so I'll just fold all my hands til maybe I take 7th or 6th"
|
|
|
|
journey075
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
|
|
no but it has to be impossible to make the show 2 times. poker is a game of long term decisions, 1 specific game show is not.
|
|
|
|
DaNutsInYoEye
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
|
|
Doesn't matter if you're in that situation 1 time or 100, it's still +EV to go for it.
|
|
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
|
|
Eric
|
|
Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: on my laptop
Posts: 1,782
|
|
Two things I would consider are the tax implications with each choice and the odds that you would know the answer to the next question without any lifelines left.
|
|
|
|
boost
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 706
|
|
life is a game of long term decsions. These odds are no different then a situation in poker where you have the same odds. So this in essense is just a continuation of all other decisions in your life. There are situations in poker where you will not see it very often, should you for that reason make a decision differently? The reason that this doesnt hold true for a situation wher eyou know you are 51% favorite, is because that question involves you putting up 100% of the money offered to you. However in this example you ALWAYS walk with money.
I guess it also depends what the money means to you. For me, at this point in my life 32k or 125k is the same thing to me. I know this doesnt make sense, but its just a feeling I have. I firmly beleive with either I can make my millions. For example, Im not going to run and play 2knl with 125k. Im not at that level yet, I would end up playing the same stakes that I would play with 32k, so yes it would be nice to have that extra ~100k but I wouldnt miss it that much, and Im going for an over 200k increase.
So I say "Ive got 12 outs, and 2 cards to come, lets gamb00l bitch"
|
|
|
|
ensign_lee
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
|
|
From an economics viewpoint, you have to think about this in terms of marginal utility.
Is $250k really worth twice as much as $125k to you? Or does that next $125k past your first mean less to you? The answer is that the second $125k means less to you.
What does this mean? This means that you have to measure your value in terms of your utility rather than in terms of dollars. I'd say $250k is worth 1.30 times more to me than $125k. At the same time, $125k is just about worth 4 times more to me than $32k. Therefore, the decision to GAMBOOL is NOT +EV for me.
So there's your answer from an economics viewpoint.
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
GAMB0000000000000L
Realistically though, most people should settle for the 125k here.
As far as EV in a pure mathematical sense like we like to look at from a poker perspective, gamble is +EV here if you are 50/50.
|
|
|
|
donkbee
|
|
WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,604
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
From an economics viewpoint, you have to think about this in terms of marginal utility.
Is $250k really worth twice as much as $125k to you? Or does that next $125k past your first mean less to you? The answer is that the second $125k means less to you.
What does this mean? This means that you have to measure your value in terms of your utility rather than in terms of dollars. I'd say $250k is worth 1.30 times more to me than $125k. At the same time, $125k is just about worth 4 times more to me than $32k. Therefore, the decision to GAMBOOL is NOT +EV for me.
So there's your answer from an economics viewpoint.
|
I'm learning econ while trying to not study econ by reading FTR posts 
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
|
|
|
ensign_lee
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by courtiebee
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
From an economics viewpoint, you have to think about this in terms of marginal utility.
Is $250k really worth twice as much as $125k to you? Or does that next $125k past your first mean less to you? The answer is that the second $125k means less to you.
What does this mean? This means that you have to measure your value in terms of your utility rather than in terms of dollars. I'd say $250k is worth 1.30 times more to me than $125k. At the same time, $125k is just about worth 4 times more to me than $32k. Therefore, the decision to GAMBOOL is NOT +EV for me.
So there's your answer from an economics viewpoint.
|
I'm learning econ while trying to not study econ by reading FTR posts |
Yay economics! 
|
|
|
|
daluchy
|
|
Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 691
|
|
There was a neat econ-ish post about gas prices and stuff awhile back. Gotta love the inelastic demand for gasoline 
|
|
pulling a courtiebee pŏŏl-ĭng ā kôrt-ē-bē (verb phrase):
1. overvaluing mid pocket pairs
2. knowing you should fold, but donkishly calling or raising anyway
|
|
donkbee
|
|
WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,604
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by daluchy
There was a neat econ-ish post about gas prices and stuff awhile back. Gotta love the inelastic demand for gasoline |
but in the long run, the demand is elastic .......
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
|
|
|
journey075
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
|
|
it has to be a really long term. inflation of gas prices in the next decade or two isnt really going to do that much.
|
|
|
|
WildBobAA
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: lol i dunno
Posts: 1,811
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DoGGz
Very Right, because the question was is this an EV decision. This is like telling me your at the WSOP FT and you won't make the EV+ decisions because it's a once and a lifetime chance. "Oh I don't want to bust 9th so I'll just fold all my hands til maybe I take 7th or 6th"
|
First of all the question is not "Is this decision +EV?" It says in the title of the thread that this is +EV. The question is whether or not you would do it. Also, you don't always do something because it is +EV. Imagine you are going to play NL Holdem Heads up versus an opponent who is willing to play you one match and has an infinte supply of money. You're going to start with $1. The opponent is going to give you AA and he will be dealt 2 random cards. You will be all in every hand and you will either double up or bust. If you win the hand, you can either choose to move on to another hand where you will be all in again with AA vs 2 random cards or you can quit but your opponent will never play you again so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. At what point would you stop? Obviously it's +EV to play AA vs 2 random cards so if you were going to always make the +EV decision, you would always choose to play another hand. However, you are guaranteed to bust at some point so it would be to your advantage to stop playing, declining the +EV of AA vs 2 random cards.
The point of this is that not every decision is based simply on EV.
|
|
|
|
Fleece
|
|
|
|
wildbob pretty much hit the nail on the head. it is more +EV to gamboool but say if ur friend rigged a roulette table so red wins 55% of the time would u put ur life savings on red? or go allin with your entire bankroll with AA preflop? no. so you should only take the gamble if you were allready a millionaire which you wouldnt be seeing as the show is called "who WANTS to be a millionaire" not "who IS a millionaire"
|
|
|
|
boost
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 706
|
|
well... I dont think only millionaires can take the gamble. Like I said, 32k and 125k are not very different in my head. Both would solve a hell of a lot of problems, and I could utilize that sort of money to make my fortune either way. I know that sounds silly, but thats how I feel. Anything over 10k just in my head is the same thing. (this obviously cuts off somewhere... Im not really sure where... but it does cutoff...)
|
|
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
Regarding "utility" 32K is about half of 125K to me. 250K is about 1.5x 125K.
regardless, I go for the gamb0l. mainly beacause of the EV of knowing the next question. 500K >> 125K; $1M>>>125K
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
metaxy6
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 328
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
From an economics viewpoint, you have to think about this in terms of marginal utility.
Is $250k really worth twice as much as $125k to you? Or does that next $125k past your first mean less to you? The answer is that the second $125k means less to you.
|
That pretty much sums it up for me. Good analysis. I walk.
|
|
|
|
johnny_fish
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
|
|
That 128K is yours already. The question is: Do you want to spend 96K on a 50/50 chance of winning 125K + a possibility of 250/750 more. I'd probably go for it, since it's a once in a lifetime opportunity..
|
|
|
|
salsa4ever
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 1,073
|
|
I go for it... the possible chance of knowing the next question tips it over the edge for me.
And yes, these decisions have to be measured in terms of marginal utility, not just monetary EV
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bigred
Would you bone your cousins? Salsa would.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by salsa4ever
well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
|
|
|
metaxy6
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 328
|
|
nowhere in the original post was there anything about knowing the next questions. though a gambooler might tell himself that to rationalize taking a shot at it.
in fact, you've used up all your lifelines and the questions are getting progressively harder, so the chances of advancing are not that good.
|
|
|
|
badandy519
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: mckinney, tx
Posts: 223
|
|
Take the 125k, keep your 32k as play money, invest the other 93k and it won't take all that long to get your $250k.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
