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ensign_lee
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10-21-2007, 03:36 PM
Post subject: ensign_lee's picks for Oct. 21
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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No time for writeups this week: Gotta go to the Texans game really quickly.
Houston Texans Moneyline (+110)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Patriots / Dolphins UNDER 51
2 units at BetTrojan
Seattle Seahawks -8 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Will probably have a play later on Denver, but am waiting for line moves. I might not be able to post it, because I'm going riding after the game.
If the line hits 3 from 3.5, I will make it a 5 unit play on Denver M/L. If it stays where it's at, I'll probably have a 2 unit play on Denver M/L. Denver hasn't been up to snuff this year, but not enough to warrant making them 3.5 point dogs in their own house.
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ShortStacked
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 53
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I'm a beginning bettor still but I'm trying to figure out what your doing. Since the public is putting money into the colts and it's like 70/30 and the books refuse to move the line that means they know something the public doesnt. Or they feel that the line is fine, but the public doesnt realize it? So we should be on the jags?
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grnydrowave2
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Showin' mah Pokemans
Posts: 651
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ShortStacked
I'm a beginning bettor still but I'm trying to figure out what your doing. Since the public is putting money into the colts and it's like 70/30 and the books refuse to move the line that means they know something the public doesnt. Or they feel that the line is fine, but the public doesnt realize it? So we should be on the jags?
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Are you referring to the moneyline? When it comes to the spread, the books could care less who wins a sporting event. Their only goal is to arrange the spread so that the public bets 50-50 on each side and they make their money from the juice. If the public is betting 70-30 on a contest and a book doesn't move the line, they are making a monumental error.
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<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ShortStacked
I'm a beginning bettor still but I'm trying to figure out what your doing. Since the public is putting money into the colts and it's like 70/30 and the books refuse to move the line that means they know something the public doesnt. Or they feel that the line is fine, but the public doesnt realize it? So we should be on the jags?
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Are you referring to the moneyline? When it comes to the spread, the books could care less who wins a sporting event. Their only goal is to arrange the spread so that the public bets 50-50 on each side and they make their money from the juice. |
careful with this thinking...
theoretically you are correct, but in actual practice this is not what happens a lot of the time, our goal is to always be on the books' side when it is skewed.
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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