Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

FTR Community

  > 

ensign_lee's NFL picks 9/7 (YTD: 0-0-0, +0 units)

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
ensign_lee
Old 09-07-2008, 03:44 PM     Post subject: ensign_lee's NFL picks 9/7 (YTD: 0-0-0, +0 units) #1 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
SageStats ensign_lee


Hey guys,

Well since X-man axed my forum, I figure this is a good a place as any to share my NFL bets with y'all. (don't worry. No hard feelings, Xianti) Woot! Go Texans!

---

Pittsburgh -6.5 (+105)
2 units at BetTrojan (scalped with matchbook to create line from -105)

Being a Texans fan myself, it's hard for me to make this bet, but the strengths of Pittsburgh play right into our weaknesses here in Houston.

We're trying to implement a pure zone blocking scheme, which has historically been fouled up by good 3-4 defenses. So even if we were executing to perfection, our running game might not do as well as we'd hope. Couple that with our seeming utter inability to convert red zone opportunities into TDs (stemming back to last year on an offense that returns a fair amount of starters) instead of FGs, and I don't see our offense consistently scoring enough to keep up with Pittsburgh.

The Pitt offense vs. Houston defense is the real story though. Jacques Reeves was absolutely lit up in the Dallas Cowboys preseason game, getting toasted on just about every play. What does this say? Any team with a viable passing attack and a good #2 wideout to match against Reeves will be able to convert 2nd and longs, 3rd and longs without that much difficulty. Does Pittsburgh fall into that criteria? Yes - With Ben at the helm and good wide receivers all around, I don't see how the our defensive backs will be able to cover everyone at once. Couple that with the disappearance of the entire Houston d-line with the exception of Mario (and he keeps getting double teamed, like always), and it is a very real possibility that Pittsburgh will be able to score seemingly at will.

Thus, Pittsburgh -6.5.

And if you want to recreate my scalp, all you have to do is take PIT -6.5 (-105) at BetTrojan, and then go and take HOU +6.5 at matchbook. I got my +6.5 at +110, and you can probably go out and try to match that, or get +109 at the very least. I have offsetting positions of 8 units at each out.

HOU/PIT OVER 42.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

HOU/PIT OVER 43.5 (-105)
1 unit at Matchbook

I took the over 43.5 earlier in the week, before the line dropped. Then I took the 42.5 yesterday at Trojan when I saw it. Same reasoning as above for the PIT offense vs. HOU defense. In fact, they may be able to come close to scoring this over themselves, to be perfectly honest...which sucks for me as a Texans fan, but anyway...

Honestly, the play revolves around the reasoning of the PIT offense vs. the HOU defense. You can trust the Texans (who btw had a top 5 passing offense last year) to put up points - I'm just afraid that it won't be enough points.

Carolina Panthers M/L @ San Diego Chargers (+387.1)
1 unit at Matchbook

Everyone is remembering the Panthers of last year *after* Delhomme went down. Who was at the helm then? David Carr - With largely the same supporting cast as Carr (including the *exact same* offensive line), Matt Schaub took the Texans from the bottom of the league in passing to top 5. What does that say about Carr? He brings teams down with him.

With Delhomme at QB, this is a completely different team. They have the personnel to hang with the Chargers, especially since Norv Turner's team I think will start out of the gate slow, like they did last year. They probably won't win this game, but I believe that they're talented enough to do so at least once in every 3 to 4 tries, which is all that is required to make this play +EV.

Baltimore Ravens M/L (+119.56)
1 unit at Matchbook

The Bengals are favored in this matchup. Why? Their team chemistry is disintegrating; their star WR is hurt for this matchup; and the Baltimore Ravens are divisional foes.

I'll take a divisional underdog at home vs. a team lacking chemistry any day.

Parlay (+281)
HOU/PIT OVER 42.5
PIT -6.5
3 1/3 units at BetTrojan

I think that these two plays are correlated enough to warrant parlaying them together. Plus, I believe that each leg seperately will stand. Couple that with getting -105 on each leg for the parlay and here we are. This should be an indicator of just how strongly I believe that the Steelers offense will decimate the Texans defense.

Buffalo -1.5 (-110)
1 unit at theGreek

Two main reasons for this pick. 1) I'm tailing another handicapper that I respect. 2) the angle that teams from the West Coast traveling to the East coast to play an early game tend to fare poorly - less than 40% ATS for the past few years (I think. Didn't relookup the stats this morning, so take that for what it's worth)

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
Lukie
Old 09-07-2008, 05:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
Lukie's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
Lukie is on a distinguished road
 results oriented for sure (on my part), but your analysis on the HOU/PIT game is looking spot on right now.

and now, a pick, sick play goddamn i'm irritated

a pittsburgh guy from michigan *barf*
Reply With Quote
bigspenda73
Old 09-07-2008, 06:11 PM #3 (permalink)  
bigspenda73's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 well looks like you're off to a good start

we however, are not
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-07-2008, 06:35 PM #4 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Adding:

HOU/PIT UNDER 20 2nd half (-118)
3 1/3 units at matchbook

Ugh. Good analysis, bad bets. Doesn't look like this over even has a chance. I'm going to try to buy myself out of my parlay at least. This way, in case PIT covers, but the game stays under, I get my parlay money back.

PIT seems more than content to just run the clock out, and my Texans can't move hte ball at all.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-07-2008, 06:46 PM #5 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
results oriented for sure (on my part), but your analysis on the HOU/PIT game is looking spot on right now.

and now, a pick, sick play goddamn i'm irritated

a pittsburgh guy from michigan *barf*
Both times, so was I. #&*(^ #*&#%^*(&#^ *&#^

Despite these positions, I'm still rooting for the Texans. And now I wanna drink. blah.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-07-2008, 06:47 PM #6 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
well looks like you're off to a good start

we however, are not
<---what I need currently. Blech.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
bigspenda73
Old 09-07-2008, 07:10 PM #7 (permalink)  
bigspenda73's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 glad I'm moving to Dallas
Reply With Quote
Lukie
Old 09-07-2008, 07:52 PM #8 (permalink)  
Lukie's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
Lukie is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
results oriented for sure (on my part), but your analysis on the HOU/PIT game is looking spot on right now.

and now, a pick, sick play goddamn i'm irritated

a pittsburgh guy from michigan *barf*
Both times, so was I. #&*(^ #*&#%^*(&#^ *&#^

Despite these positions, I'm still rooting for the Texans. And now I wanna drink. blah.
it's NFL sunday, that's as good of a reason as I've ever heard
Reply With Quote
bigspenda73
Old 09-07-2008, 08:16 PM #9 (permalink)  
bigspenda73's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 nice start to the season sir

how do you have/get money online?
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-08-2008, 12:13 AM #10 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Adding:

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-260)
1 unit at BetJamaica

I think the Colts cover a 3.5 line often enough for this to be +EV. The colts are that good and the bears are that bad. Sorry this couldn't be more detailed, but just foundt his line and game starts soon. GO GO GO!

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-08-2008, 12:21 AM #11 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Just looked and my offer at matchbook got accepted:

IND -6.5 (1st half) (-117)
1.17 units to win 1 unit at matchbook

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-08-2008, 02:30 AM #12 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
nice start to the season sir

how do you have/get money online?
Thanks, spenda. I appreciate it.

As far as funding, I used moneygram and Western Union to get money off to two outs: matchbook and BetTrojan. From there, I transferred from matchbook to thegreek, and from thegreek to betjamaica. The top tier books all do "in house" transfers between each other, so it's almost like having neteller, just not quite: main differences being minimum transfers of like $500, or rollover requirements, or some books even charging fees to move money away from their book, but yeah.

P.S. I found my original money clip - you can keep the spare. Thanks for the help. Also, shoot me a text - I no longer have your number since I lost my phone on the way to Hong Kong.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
Lukie
Old 09-08-2008, 03:25 AM #13 (permalink)  
Lukie's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
Lukie is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Adding:

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-260)
1 unit at BetJamaica

I think the Colts cover a 3.5 line often enough for this to be +EV. The colts are that good and the bears are that bad. Sorry this couldn't be more detailed, but just foundt his line and game starts soon. GO GO GO!
hehe.. I actually read this before the game and I agreed with you. Now, looking that the Bears are up 16 late in the 4th-- I realize one of the things I love about the NFL (aka Not For Long)-- it's so hard to predict. I think it's why I also try to take conservative stances on things NFL-related unless I really have a strong viewpoint on something.
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-08-2008, 10:44 PM #14 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Haha, yeah, Lukie. Things happen. Still amazed that the Colts got so wtfpzwned last night, but meh. oh well.

Green Bay -2 (+100)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Everyone has been endless hyping up Minnesota this offseason - Adrian Peterson this, Tarvaris Jackson that, Jared Allen that. Well, you know what? One RB does not make a team - and the GB Packers had a top 5 defense last year. Tarvaris Jackson I do not believe is the answer at QB for Minnesota. I agree with the TMQ in that Jared Allen's style of defense detracts from, rather than improves, the quality of an NFL defense: his tendency to gamble for sacks and big plays and lose containment.

Meanwhile, you'll hear a fair amount of sports pundits downplaying the talent of the Packers due to the Brett Favre debacle - well you know what? The Packers *are* that good. And when you give a young, successful QB a great foundation and team around him, he will do good things.

This is a bet against public perception. Until Minnesota proves that it can actually do something on the field worth commending, I don' tsee why they should be getting htis much respect. The line should be Packers -4, maybe -4.5.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-08-2008, 10:50 PM #15 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Denver Broncos -3 (+101.94)
1 unit at Matchbook

Honestly, I thought this line would be much higher. Even though I think the Broncos are on a downslope in terms of their success, they should still have sufficient talent to overtake the Raiders.

I noticed earlier that the Raiders O/U season wins was like 7 - how does that happen? Because they signed a bunch of free agents? Free agents help put *good* teams over the top. Lots of free agent signings bring down a bad team in more ways than one: 1) it disrupts team chemistry in teh beginning (at least the beginning) because you have a bunch of new people coming in who don't always know the system that well. 2) The FAs end up not being as effective as they were before because they don't have the same supporting cast around them or because they were not that talented to begin with. There's usually a reason that another club released a free agent. 3) They suck down your team into salary cap hell because bad teams tend to have to overpay for their FA acquisitions.

So here, I take a team with a recent history of success over a team with with anything but. I wish I'd gotten this at -2.5, or -1 like where it opened (In fact, I think I may have bought at the highest point/worst time possible by taking the -3 at only +101), but oh well. What's done is done. GO BRONCOS!

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
BankItDrew
Old 09-08-2008, 11:35 PM #16 (permalink)  
BankItDrew's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
BankItDrew will become famous soon enough
 Pre-Game Coin Toss Makes Jaguars Realize Randomness Of Life
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1feEqgRZQI


Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!

Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?

Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
 
Reply With Quote
Trikflow77
Old 09-09-2008, 01:39 AM #17 (permalink)  
Trikflow77's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: im so asian
Posts: 1,460
Trikflow77
nice week. I think the raiders will will tonight though, denver is done imo.

my bad, didnt think the raiders secondary would be this bad.
Reply With Quote
wesrman
Old 09-09-2008, 02:15 AM #18 (permalink)  
wesrman's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Leaf Nation
Posts: 654
wesrman is on a distinguished road
Send a message via MSN to wesrman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trikflow77
nice week. I think the raiders will will tonight though, denver is done imo.
This.

Also i love the guys the Raiders brought in.
 
Reply With Quote
yourfather
Old 09-09-2008, 07:59 PM #19 (permalink)  
yourfather's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: In your fridge
Posts: 603
yourfather
Nice picks. I am in a baller pick 5 league, if you feel like posting these on Saturdays it would be cool
Reply With Quote
ensign_lee
Old 09-10-2008, 02:58 AM #20 (permalink)  
ensign_lee's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
ensign_lee
Send a message via AIM to ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by yourfather
Nice picks. I am in a baller pick 5 league, if you feel like posting these on Saturdays it would be cool
Thanks.

If you click the link in my sig, it'll bring you to a page that breaks down the bets that I make, as well as any current bets that I have put in.

I usually try to make one post all at once to make it more organized, so sometimes I'll make a play and then not post it.

For instance, I now have two units on Philadelphia +7 (-111) and one on New England M/L at +111.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com
 
Reply With Quote
Ragnar4
Old 09-10-2008, 06:18 AM #21 (permalink)  
Ragnar4's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
Ragnar4 will become famous soon enoughRagnar4 will become famous soon enough
Send a message via MSN to Ragnar4
Quote:
Originally Posted by wesrman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trikflow77
nice week. I think the raiders will will tonight though, denver is done imo.
This.

Also i love the guys the Raiders brought in.
So do ALL The bronco fans!
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
Reply With Quote
wesrman
Old 09-10-2008, 01:51 PM #22 (permalink)  
wesrman's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Leaf Nation
Posts: 654
wesrman is on a distinguished road
Send a message via MSN to wesrman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
Quote:
Originally Posted by wesrman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trikflow77
nice week. I think the raiders will will tonight though, denver is done imo.
This.

Also i love the guys the Raiders brought in.
So do ALL The bronco fans!
LOL i know we suck, but we're young. FWIW I still like the guys we brought in.
 
Reply With Quote
Lukie
Old 09-10-2008, 04:36 PM #23 (permalink)  
Lukie's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
Lukie is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
Quote:
Originally Posted by wesrman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trikflow77
nice week. I think the raiders will will tonight though, denver is done imo.
This.

Also i love the guys the Raiders brought in.
So do ALL The bronco fans!
this.

wow DeAngelo Hall was bad. no discipline what so ever, penalties (including back to back personal fouls), and *REPEATEDLY* got burned by a rookie wideout.

Javon Walker... let's forget football for a second. Dude has burned the bridge to 2 respected organizations. so how does he prove that he's changed in denver? by going out and partying in vegas, getting his ass kicked, publically contemplating retirement, etc.

joke joke joke
Reply With Quote
Lukie
Old 09-10-2008, 04:39 PM #24 (permalink)  
Lukie's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
Lukie is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Vikings @ GB tonight, should be a great game. I'll probably be really focusing on this game and semi-watch DEN/OAK after.

Any other year I'd probably be pulling for GB, but now I'd love to see the Vikings slap them around a bit. Would make for great entertainment.

The Raiders are a mess of a football team. Too many head-cases, a clown of an owner, horrible relationship between head coach and said owner, etc. You have to figure though, sooner or later, all those high draft picks are going to translate into some wins! I'm predicting later.
also, did i mention how terrible deangelo hall was?
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 09:03 AM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.