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ensign_lee's 9/28 winning picks (YTD: 18-12, +32.04 units)

  
 
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ensign_lee
Old 09-28-2008, 02:16 PM     Post subject: ensign_lee's 9/28 winning picks (YTD: 18-12, +32.04 units) #1 (permalink)  
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SageStats ensign_lee


Bets not recorded at SageStats.com can be found here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...DlRSHfbA&hl=en

YTD: 18-12-0
Units Won: +32.04

So last week, I went something terrible like 2-7. If I ever wanted to use the phrase "I am appalled at the bullshitism of that cover", last week's COlts/Jags under play would have been it. After the FG, Jags defense lets Peyton go down the field, which you know, was fine, beacuse 7 points was still my cushion to win. And then Peyton gets first and goal from the 2 and passes twice. Why? I can't imagine. If it succeeds, you just scored, and you leave 1:20 or so on the clock for the Jags, and they have 3 timeouts. And all they have to do is kick a FG. If you fail, clock stops. But meh; spilled milk. It happens.

In retrospect, I'd still make every play that I did last week again, minus the Lions bet. I should have known that they might come out flat going on the road after losing to GB in the fashion that they did - the game was a lot closer than the final score indicated there. The Saints were in it right until the end, which was they way I thought it was going to be. And the system plays are, well, system plays, and I plan on utilizing that system the rest of the year - besides, 1-2 ain't so bad. I'm glad I listened ot hte system and played it robotically, becasue had I thought about anything, I probably would have laid off the Seattle play and that's the only one that own. hah.

Anyway, enough talk about last week. On to this week!

~~~

Houston Texans Moneyline (+274.4)
5 units at matchbook

I know, I know. I've faded the Texans twice in the past for two of my bigger plays; why the love this time? Am I just being a homer?

Those are valid points. But the Texans as 7 point road favorites against the Jaguars is a completely different situation than 5 point favorites at PIT or at TEN. The Jags are less talented than both those other teams that the Texans have faced on the road so far. Despite last week's rushing performance, I'm still not convinced that their offense has the cohesion necessary to function. The fact remains that they still have street FAs starting on that o-line: players that didn't participate in training camp, don't know the playbook as well, and haven't had time to gel with their teammates on the o-line yet. The offensive line is a group of 5 people that have to function as one, and I don't see them being able to that effectively here.

The Texans are being waaaay undervalued here. Last week's Tennessee game was much closer than the final score indicated - 31-12 and all that. In the last minute, there was basically that 14 point swing where the Texans were within the Titans 5 and then Matt threw a pick 6. But lots of people will just look at that score and say "huh; wow, the Texans must be terrible.", especially after seeing the game we put up in Pittsburgh in Week 1.

The Texans always seem to do well vs. Jacksonville, for some reason or other. May it's the Boselli curse, retribution for them making us spend our first overall pick in the expansion draft in getting a LT from them that never ended up playing a down for us. Maybe it's ebcause of the dirty play and history that our players have with the Jaguars; I don't know, but the Texans always seem to play hard against the Jags. In fact, they're the only team that we've played 10 or more games against that we have a winning record versus: 7-5 all time. Getting +275 or so here is nice in that respect.

The line should be closer to Jacksonville -4 and the M/L should be closer to +175, +180. But it's not. And I think the Texans win here often enough to make this a +EV bet.

Really, I thought that I was going to be able to get closer to +300 and so didn't jump on the lines earlier this week. The line move from -7.5 to -7 was a shocker for me. Though less of the public is on JAX than I thought would be (about 60% according to covers/wagerline, and 66% according to sportsinisights), I still think this represents reverse line movement as well, and onto a key NFL number at that. That's what bumped this from an original 3 unit play to a 4.5 unit play.

Monkey wrench in all this is that the Texans offense has been sputtering this season, and the Jags defense is still there in full force. If they destroy our line like the Titans and Steelers did to us, well uh...damn.

HOU/JAX UNDER 43 (+102.5)
1.5 unit at matchbook

In a game where one team has been struggling on offense (the Texans) and the other has problems on the o-line which have been holding back the offense (the Jaguars), I think a total of 43 is much too high. That being said, Texans AFC South games have a history of going over their posted totals - so that's why this is a smaller play.

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ensign_lee
Old 09-28-2008, 02:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Glad I was watching the line movements, wow. The Texans line just moved from +7 to +6.5

Added:

Houston Texans +7 (-110)
4.5 units at BetTrojan

With everything else at 6.5 now, I figure this is a smart long term +EV play, even if I am really exposed at this point with the Texans.

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ensign_lee
Old 09-28-2008, 02:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Also adding:

Buffalo Bills -8 (+100.94)
1 unit at matchbook

Ordinarily, I wouldn't think of betting on an away favorite with this big of a line, especially with a team that I think struggles offensively at times.

But...these are not normal circumstances. I think that the stars of St. Louis have the motivation here to not play well. Why? It's extremely probably that Linehan loses his job if he loses this week, according to the AP. The main stars on STL's offense have voiced their opposition to the benching of Marc Bulger very loudly, and I can't say that I blame them.

This is a team that is not in sync on either side of the ball, and now has reason to stink even more. I'll take the Bills in this situation. They should have the talent to take care of the job here.

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WildBobAA
Old 09-28-2008, 03:48 PM #4 (permalink)  
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gl
 
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ensign_lee
Old 09-28-2008, 03:50 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Thanks Bob.

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bigred
Old 09-28-2008, 09:02 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 texans no good
LOL OPERATIONS
 
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ensign_lee
Old 09-28-2008, 09:41 PM #7 (permalink)  
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(#&^ *(&#^*(&# ^*&#^%(#%&*625 87265 78265

^
|
|
Texans fan tilt.

MFte987 (*&#aic 987 (*#OID (& (#. We's so doooooooomed.

(This has almost nothing to do with money, and almost everything to do with the fact that we could very well start the season freaking 0-5)

*(#@& (*)&Y IJU C()&D^ CIOUY DYIUDY (*&^Q YO*&^ #

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WildBobAA
Old 09-28-2008, 09:47 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Don't worry lee, they'll beat the Lions week 7
 
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Trikflow77
Old 09-29-2008, 08:55 PM #9 (permalink)  
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such a tough beat for the texans, i felt so bad for them.
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