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Early leans for 10/15, 10/16 weekend

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Grand_MasterB

10-12-2005, 03:20 PM Post subject: Early leans for 10/15, 10/16 weekend

#1 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Cincinnati

Posts: 466

Some early looks

NCAA (4-5 year to date)

OK under 43.5
Mich under 43.5
Purdue -7 (my favorite play so far)
Penn St +3.5

NFL (10-4-1 year to date)

Giants +3.5
Minnesota +3
Jets O33.5

i will narrow these down and probably add a few as the week goes on and i get to look more in depth at the games. Any thoughts guys?

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DoGGz

10-13-2005, 03:15 AM

#2 (permalink)

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I like the giants with jones looking to be on the bench. I will probably make a bet on that game close to the weekend as we know for sure if he is playing or not.

DoGGz

10-13-2005, 03:52 AM

#3 (permalink)

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PICK OF THE WEEK (NFL 2-2-1)

Seahawks -10(-105) over the Texans.

On the surface, 10 points looks like a lot. The Seahawks are not the Colts, and have been in plenty of close games this season. Their only 10 point victory is in week 3 vs the Cardinals. They don't seem to have the defence to stop opposing teams from scoring. But lets look deeper.

The Texans have looked bad, very bad. They are in a race with the 49ers to see who gets the first pick in the 06 draft. They have only had one game in which they HAVEN'T lost by more than 10, and that was to Cincy. Even the average Titans took them to the cleaners.

It gets better. Hasselbeck has been on as of late. Over the past 3 games he has thrown for over 800 yards and no interceptions. He only has 2 TD in this period, but that is simply because they have the league's leading running back in Shawn Alexander, who has SEVEN in the past 3 games.

The Seahawks are averaging over 25 points a game, while the Texans are only scoring 11. Look for the Seahawks to go up early and ice the game with a large helping of Alexander who gets 30+ carries and multiple touchdowns.

Seahawks 31
Texans 13

DoGGz

10-13-2005, 11:52 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

Pinnacle has the line at -9.5(-100). All my bets have been 1 unit, but this bet is going 5 units.

DoGGz

10-13-2005, 11:04 PM

#5 (permalink)

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I should definately waited on this bet. The line is sliding even FURTHER toward the texans. I just don't see how there is so much early action on the texans.

Lesson learned.

Grand_MasterB

10-14-2005, 06:48 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Cincinnati

Posts: 466

ok here are my final bets for this weekend

Atlanta -5.5
Cincy -3 (small play)
Giants +3.5
Jets O33

NCAA
Purdue -6.5
small plays on each of the following
Texas Tech -14
Colorado +17
ND +12

may add some right before game time on sat and sunday but all those are for sure.

doubledown

10-14-2005, 09:39 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 105

As a Seahawk fan I can see why the line is moving down.

1.) We get no respect in Seattle...You said we're not the Colts, We'll we do have the #1 offense in football and many of the critics are still concerned with the fact Engram and D-Jack our out of the lineup. With Holmgren's offense, it's proven that he doesn't need huge big game receivers. Look at his GB teams in the past.

2.) Handicappers are concerned with the D. Davis vs Seattle Run D match-up. This is an effect still lingering from last season. However the Hawks have been great against the run this year (S. Jackson, Portis of late). They struggled last week vs the Pass but that's against Martz's "Greatest Show on Turf." Seahawks should have no problem with the Texans weak passing game and should be able to focus on stopping the run.

3.) Seahawks Get No Respect - Did I say this already?

4.) Primetime Factor - Alexander is a monster on PrimeTime (I think the handicappers may have missed this factor)

I'm glad I held off on this game, I love the Hawks -9.

Listen, here's the thing. If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker.

ensign_lee

10-14-2005, 10:02 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin

Posts: 2,237

I have a question.

If I want to bet on the spread, with the seahawks winning by at least 10 points (-9.5 point spread), then why wouldn't I want to parlay that bet with the Seahawks winning period?

I mean, if the seahawks win by 10, then obviously, they're going to win the game.

Why would I ever not parlay these two bets?

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ensign_lee

10-14-2005, 10:05 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Just figured it out: I'm not allowed to. :P

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DoGGz

10-15-2005, 01:16 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Quote:

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Just figured it out: I'm not allowed to. :P

lol. And the moneyline is like -400. The odds would be in your favor just to double your unit bet on the spread. Pin has the hawks -9(102)!!! Damn I wish I would have waited.

DoGGz

10-15-2005, 11:35 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB

ok here are my final bets for this weekend

Atlanta -5.5
Cincy -3 (small play)
Giants +3.5
Jets O33

NCAA
Purdue -6.5
small plays on each of the following
Texas Tech -14
Colorado +17
ND +12

may add some right before game time on sat and sunday but all those are for sure.

This is an interesting game for sure. I was going to make a 1 unit play on the Giants myself, after hearing Jones will be on the sideline, but looking into further I don't know.

Look at who the Giants and Cowboys have played. The Giants have looked great so far, but the only real team they played (SD) took them to the house in the 2nd half and ran away with the game. Against some WEAK defences, Eli and the Giants are only averaging 353 yards per game. The Cowboys will be the best defence they will have seen all season and will definately put them to the test.

If anything I like the Giants Moneyline at +155. They won't be losing a close game here. Get the extra equity out of the moneyline and skip the spread on this one.

Eric

10-15-2005, 08:35 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

I like the giants with jones looking to be on the bench. I will probably make a bet on that game close to the weekend as we know for sure if he is playing or not.

I'm hoping that Tyson Thompson does a good job filling in for Jones. I picked him up for our fantasy league and started him this weekend.

DoGGz

10-17-2005, 04:28 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

Looks like my first Game of the Week went as planned. Alexander put the game away with 4 touchdowns, and the Seahawks ran for over 300 total yards.

ttanaka

10-17-2005, 07:42 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Good weekend, went 2 out of 3 with Giants +4, Seahawks -8.5, but lost Pats + 3. I'll take it.

Any thoughts on Monday Night?

DoGGz

10-17-2005, 10:18 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Monday Night is a draw. I don't like any plays at all.

Where did you get Giants +4?

ttanaka

10-17-2005, 10:31 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Nine.com - I shop the spreads between nine.com, vipsports, and bodog.

Nine.com has a special where you get an extra 1/2 point on bets made on Friday. This is the second time where a 1/2 - 1 point difference in spreads between the sportsbooks won my bet this NFL season.

I'm taking the under tonight - 51.5 - a small play for fun value really.

We list the spreads at http://nfl-sports-betting.flopturnriver.com , but the VIPsports one is delayed so not that accurate until you log in.

DoGGz

10-17-2005, 11:10 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ttanaka

I see. I've been playing on pinnacle because of only 5% house juice. I got -9 (104) on the seahawks game that alone was worth a bundle

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Early leans for 10/15, 10/16 weekend

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