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coolsmoe
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12-05-2006, 09:08 PM
Post subject: Dilemma on how to play Starluck bonus...
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 78
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Hi all, I made an account on Starluck to try and play for the 100$ bonus using the bj chart from wizards of odds.
Because I never played bj, i play 1$ at a time to get used to the chart. Now, I wagered around $220, so 1400$ to go, but I already dropped to $174.
I was thinking about playing it the 'Martingale' way (if you loose, double the bet). I know this gets ugly after 7 losses, but on the other hand, you gonna clear the bonus much faster or go bust.
So what would you do, play $1 at a time (or use $2/$5 at a time), or try doubling your bets if you loose. (and restart with a bet of $1 when you win).
Thx,
C_S
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AHiltz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
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keep with the $1
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swiggidy
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12-05-2006, 10:12 PM
Post subject: Re: Dilemma on how to play [url=http://www.flopturnriver.com
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#3 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by coolsmoe
I was thinking about playing it the 'Martingale' way (if you loose, double the bet). I know this gets ugly after 7 losses, but on the other hand, you gonna clear the bonus much faster or go bust.
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This method sucks.
The chance of loosing 7 in a row is ~ 0.5^7 = 0.78%, or 1 every 128 trials. Thus, you should expect to see 10 strings of 7 losses playing 1400 hands.
Playing 1400 hands you should expect to see a loosing streak of log_2(1400) = 10 hands.
Almost guaranteed busto.
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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coolsmoe
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 78
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Yeah, but it seems I have to clear 24x times now... that's also a guaranteed busto probably :-/
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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if you signed up before they changed the wagering requirements send a polite mail to support asking of you can still have the bonus at the cheaper rate.
If not, 24x isnt that awful anyhow.
If you visit the wizard of odds hell show you a nice grpah of how you go busto more often with the martingale method.
Betting it all on one hand only works for stickies, but is obviously awesomly fun 
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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I thought about this over dinner. I poked around the wizard of odds for a minute but didn't see it there.
The chance of loosing 7 in a row is 0.78%, so the chance of not loosing 7 in a row is 99.22%. If you play 100 hands, the chance of not going busto is 0.9922^(100-6), or 47.8%. The chance of not going busto playing 1400 hands is 0.002%.
Sry, I'm too lazy to do the math to figure your chance of going busto playing normal. I think it's pretty low.
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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coolsmoe
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 78
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True, but I probably do not need 1400 hands to clear the bonus. (Because the clearing rate also doubles up every 'loss').
So maybe 8x is doable, but 24x will be pushing it 
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