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sykotik489
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12-22-2005, 12:51 AM
Post subject: Deal or No Deal:
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 99
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I think I have a new favorite game show. It's math based (specifically odds) and instinct/gut based as well.
Great stuff earlier
Chick was down to 4 cases, 3 on the board 1 in her possession.
1 case had 1 million in it the others 5k or less.
They offered her 201,000 to quit. What would you do?
By my estimation you have about a 72% chance of getting a bigger offer next time. Three out of 4 times you will not have the 1M in your case, so you have a 66% chance of opening a case that has a low amount in it, therefore raising your "offer". 1 time out of 4 you have a 100% chance of raising your offer, since you already have the million in your case.
66*66*66*100 should be around 72% correct?
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You should never wave at people you don't know, cause what if they don't have a hand. They'll think you're cocky. "Look what I got motherfucker, this thing is useful, I'ma go pick somethin up."
- Mitch Hedberg
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Its a dumb show. EV wise it is ALWAYS correct to play to the end because you are always being offered lower than your expectation value. If you consider utility aswell then it is sometimes correct to accept offers lower than your expectation value but that just depends on how much you need the money... and how much of it you need.
If 200k will change your life then take it because you will be sick if you dont and you go home with 50p.
If you are already a billionaire then play to the end regardless.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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tom
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Straight
Join Date: May 2005
Location: ATX
Posts: 158
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I definately was doing some random surfing and started watching it and thought it was quality stuff too.
I would love to gamble for it but if I had the choice I'd take the money at that point.
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sykotik489
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 99
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Actually I'm pretty sure they offer you an amount that is precisely designed to make it moot mathematically. Unless you take the odds of raising the offer on your next turn. If you are just going by whats in your case then it's always going to be a fairly even proposition. But if you take into account your 70% chance of making an extra 100,000 then it might be more profitable over the long run to go just one more, your next offer would be around 330,000
What would be really interesting is if someone got to the end, with 500k and 1M still on the board. They would offer you 750k to walk. What would you do?
I take my shot, because I am going home happy with 500k.
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You should never wave at people you don't know, cause what if they don't have a hand. They'll think you're cocky. "Look what I got motherfucker, this thing is useful, I'ma go pick somethin up."
- Mitch Hedberg
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Iconoclastic
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 324
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The correct strategy in my opinion for the average person is to take the money whenever it goes over $150,000 or so. That's like several years of work for God's sake! It's a lot easier to earn money when you have money, and with a sound financial plan that 150k will turn into a million soon enough. And you can live lavishly in the mean time. The difference between 10k and 150k is much larger than the difference between 150k and 290k.
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What's the difference between a large cheese pizza and a poker player?
A large cheese pizza can feed a family of four.
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FyrFytr998
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Milford,Ct.
Posts: 1,412
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Same here. Was channel surfing and the wife and I were instantly hooked. I immediately made a remark to her that a good poker player would know the odds in every situation. And told her that I wasn't one of those good players, lol.
For me, I'm taking any offer above 150k dependent on how many big numbers are still left in the right side column.
I can't believe the bozo who turned down 250k the other day.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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They always make it =EV.
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sykotik489
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 99
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I agree that they always make it =EV, but do you not think it may be worth the risk. To say...give up 201,000 for a 72% chance of getting at least 330k, which would have been the next offer if she didn't hit the case with the million in it?
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You should never wave at people you don't know, cause what if they don't have a hand. They'll think you're cocky. "Look what I got motherfucker, this thing is useful, I'ma go pick somethin up."
- Mitch Hedberg
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This is a fucking awesome show to watch (we have it in Britain too).
It proves that people are retards.
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xBULLETTSx
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
Posts: 49
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Give me 10K and Im gone.....lol
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xBULLETTSx
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by midas06
They always make it =EV.
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They usually offer a little less than the average. . . at least in the UK version
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by midas06
They always make it =EV.
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They usually offer a little less than the average. . . at least in the UK version |
Yeah, the banker always makes it slightly +EV to gamb00l.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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If 200k would have a big positive impact on your life and 5k wouldn't, it's a no-brainer to take the deal if it's anywhere near close.
However, if I could play this game a large number of times or sell a stake in my proposition, the quetion the OP brings up has more merit.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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no need to gambool when he offers u like 15k plus is there?
anything less and its an easy gambOOl!
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Anonymous
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To be honest I think the UK version is the best, simply because it has Noel Edmonds in it. Noel is my God!
Seriously though it can be great fun to watch, and I shall be live in January (hopefully)!
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Muxy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canadian LOLUH'S AND AMERICAN LOLUHS
Posts: 1,529
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only thing could make Deal or No Deal any better is Tony Danza
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