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ensign_lee
Old 07-31-2006, 08:01 AM     Post subject: Comments about ensign_lee's posts #1 (permalink)  
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Hello fellow FTR members:

I've been making the transition from poker to sportsbetting for a little while now and thought I'd share my few nuggets of wisdom with y'all. I'll be writing articles here and there to help you understand how to sportsbet SUCCESSFULLY, just like FTR has articles to help you play poker successfully.

Please comment in this thread and this thread only, so that the articles themselves can remain clean. I'll be glad to answer any questions that you have.

This is a beatable game, just like poker is a beatable game, but it's not gonna be easy. But hey: you mastered poker. You can do this too.

Let's do it boys and girls.

Sincerely,

ensign_lee

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Miffed22001
Old 08-07-2006, 03:29 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 sup lee.

I read the br management thread.
Is there a realistic amount of cash to start a sports betting bankroll with. Basically i only ever bet on soccer/world cup with bits and pieces from my poker roll when i saw good bets. Now im acually gona give this a shot.
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ItDepends
Old 08-07-2006, 06:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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where are these posts?
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ensign_lee
Old 08-08-2006, 04:33 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ItDepends
where are these posts?
So far, there's only one, but it's stickified.

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ensign_lee
Old 08-08-2006, 04:37 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
sup lee.

I read the br management thread.
Is there a realistic amount of cash to start a sports betting bankroll with. Basically i only ever bet on soccer/world cup with bits and pieces from my poker roll when i saw good bets. Now im acually gona give this a shot.
Hey Miffed.

Basically, start out with as much as you feel comfortable with. I'm officially starting this year with a $5000 roll, because I want to be able to bet $50-$150 a game without exceeding my bankroll limitations.

I don't know how big your poker roll is, but I'd say just take half of it and make it your sportsbetting bankroll. Now, when I say this, I don't mean that you can't still use it as your poker bankroll. My poker and sports bankrolls have since 'blended' together, so they don't really have to be completly seperate bankrolls. Just make sure you know where your 'loss limit' is: the point where you will stop betting sports if something goes wrong.

$1000 wouldn't be too bad to start. Obviously, the more you have, the more you'll be able to bet. With a $1000 roll, you should be able to bet around $10-$25 a game. You should be allright.

Let me know if I can help you with anything else.

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euphoricism
Old 08-11-2006, 05:43 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Ok, so I read the second article. Our edge comes from when we believe the house has set an 'off' line. Therefore, I think, they want as close to even money on both sides, so they tilt one side that doesnt have as much favor with the public so that the "other guy" will pay more to hit it. If the public thinks team A will win by a landslide, the house will give quite a good edge to those who want to bet that team B will win, to entice players to go for it in hopes of the big payout, hence generating even action. This makes sense. So our edge comes from when the house goes *too far*, or even not far enough, in generating this even action.

Ok, got it that, I think.

Now how do I tell when a line is off? Maybe some real-life examples, both positive and negative in terms of result, are in order?
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Old 08-11-2006, 05:49 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Also, clarification on the term "unit". As I understand it, a proper unit size is much like a big bet in limit. Its different for everyone according to how much their bankroll is. Like, at 5k bankroll i could play $5/$10 so you could say that the $10 baseline bet is my "unit", right? Whereas in poker we measure things in terms of BBs, in sportsbetting we measure in terms of unit, and a unit size is picked according to our bankroll and our tolerated risk.

Right?
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ensign_lee
Old 08-11-2006, 06:57 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Ok, so I read the second article. Our edge comes from when we believe the house has set an 'off' line. Therefore, I think, they want as close to even money on both sides, so they tilt one side that doesnt have as much favor with the public so that the "other guy" will pay more to hit it. If the public thinks team A will win by a landslide, the house will give quite a good edge to those who want to bet that team B will win, to entice players to go for it in hopes of the big payout, hence generating even action. This makes sense. So our edge comes from when the house goes *too far*, or even not far enough, in generating this even action.

Ok, got it that, I think.

Now how do I tell when a line is off? Maybe some real-life examples, both positive and negative in terms of result, are in order?
Ok: real life example. Last year's playoffs between the Colts and the Steelers.

Lots of the public thought that the Colts were going to STEAMROLL the Steelers. Why? The bye week, the fact that it was a #6 seed going to face a #1 seed, the fact that the Colts had gone 13-0 earlier in the year: a lot of things.

So the bookmakers knew that if they set the line too low, they would get tons of action on Indy. So where did they set the line? An unbelievably high -9.5 to open. The line ended up closing -10.5 to -11, depending on where you got your bet down.

Now, remember what happened? The Colts outright LOST. They never even came close to the number in the spread.

The number should never have been that high. It was that high because of public perception.

So your question was how do you know when a line is off? Well...that's the key to handicapping, my friend. If I knew for certain, I would be a rich man.

Usually, if you know a sport well enough, you'll be able to just spot a line and be like "No. That line is WAY off." Until then, just make sure to temper what you feel about a game with what the public thinks about a game.

Public overreactions to huge losses, huge wins, or injuries are very common. So when you see a team get completely owned by 17+ points one week, be prepared to see a line adjustment by the bookmakers for that team in the next game. And they'll 'overadjust' it because if they put it where they think it should go, the public will be all over the other team.

Get it? I know it's complicated, but you'll find yourself an eye for things sooner or later.

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ensign_lee
Old 08-11-2006, 07:22 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Also, clarification on the term "unit". As I understand it, a proper unit size is much like a big bet in limit. Its different for everyone according to how much their bankroll is. Like, at 5k bankroll i could play $5/$10 so you could say that the $10 baseline bet is my "unit", right? Whereas in poker we measure things in terms of BBs, in sportsbetting we measure in terms of unit, and a unit size is picked according to our bankroll and our tolerated risk.

Right?
You have the general concept right. However, instead of a unit being a Big Bet, it would be more like...a buyin.

As before, it would be idfferent for everyone according to how big their bankroll is. Dollar amounts are useless without knowing how much else is in someone's bankroll.

If someone bets $25, but their normal unit is $5, then this would be a big play for them. Conversely, if someone bets $500, but their normal bet unit is $2500, this would be a really small bet for them.

But if you lined up the bets side by side: $25 vs. $500, you would automatically think that the $500 would be better, regardless of whether or not the people who initially posted the wagers thought so.

So you use units so that everyone can follow along with what you're thinking.

A unit size is generally a percentage of bankroll: 1% is the norm followed by a lot of people. You can increase it or decrease it due to the size of your bankroll and your tolerance of risk, just like a buyin.

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