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elipsesjeff
Old 09-26-2006, 12:24 AM     Post subject: CodeRed's sports bets #1 (permalink)  
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 I kept getting tired of stealing ensign lee's threads so I will put them in here.

So far this year my record is 7-2-1 (one of the losses was from speculating a College game), including the Steelers game over the first 3 weeks of the season. I've been choosing pretty safe picks and they've been working pretty well. Total win: Net 4 Units not including the 19 I won with the Steelers. Each Unit: $100.

My picks for week 4:

Bears vs Seattle (under 36) -110 @Pinnacle
Teaser: Chicago +3 and Indianapolis -3 @ Mansion
Teaser: Minnesota +7 and New England +12 @ Mansion

I'm still thinking about the Bears -3, probably wont happen unless i can get a better price than -119.


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-02-2006, 07:06 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Okay, for week 4 I changed my bets. I took the Bears vs Seattle under bet and obv lost, but I tried to hedge at halftime for 17 points at the second half and they tied it, so didn't make my money on it.

I decided to take the Bears -3 in this game, as, apparently I am the only one who actually knows that the bears kick major ass. Although, had I kept up with this I probably should have told you guys that last year the Bears defense ripped Hasselbeck a new one and they didn't score a touchdown then either, they had like 6 sacks in last year's game.

I also teased Indianapolis at -1.5, which barely covered and New England +11, not that they needed any of that lol. Overall I netted 1 unit today, going 2-1-1. I'm going to start doubling my teaser units as I'm like 100% correct on those so far this year.


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-23-2006, 01:24 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 It's been a couple weeks but I put some money on some games for week 7.

Started off the day putting 1 unit each on:

Pittsburgh (under 39) vs Atlanta (-102)
Philadelphia (over 42.5) vs Tampa Bay (-101)
Arizona (under 39.5) vs Oakland (-105)

And then put second half bets on:

Philadelphia (-7 2nd half) vs Tampa Bay (+119)
Pittsburgh (over 20.5 2nd half) vs Atlanta (-111)
Arizona vs Oakland (+3 second half) (+105)

Overall netted 2 units, with the Arizona vs Oakland game as my only moneymaker. The Other half time bets where there for hedging the places I was in, which I would say wasn't the best place to be in. I think the over 20.5 on the Pittsburgh was a pretty obvious bet and had a lot of confidence in that, and the Arizona/Oakland game I bet on accident, as I originally thought I had Arizona -3 but actually had the under. To my surprise I won both units and am pretty happy.

Now that Mansion is out of the picture I'm looking for another place to take my teasers, or wondering if I should just go the Parlay route.


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ensign_lee
Old 10-23-2006, 07:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
It's been a couple weeks but I put some money on some games for week 7.

Started off the day putting 1 unit each on:

Pittsburgh (under 39) vs Atlanta (-102)
Philadelphia (over 42.5) vs Tampa Bay (-101)
Arizona (under 39.5) vs Oakland (-105)

And then put second half bets on:

Philadelphia (-7 2nd half) vs Tampa Bay (+119)
Pittsburgh (over 20.5 2nd half) vs Atlanta (-111)
Arizona vs Oakland (+3 second half) (+105)

Overall netted 2 units, with the Arizona vs Oakland game as my only moneymaker. The Other half time bets where there for hedging the places I was in, which I would say wasn't the best place to be in. I think the over 20.5 on the Pittsburgh was a pretty obvious bet and had a lot of confidence in that, and the Arizona/Oakland game I bet on accident, as I originally thought I had Arizona -3 but actually had the under. To my surprise I won both units and am pretty happy.

Now that Mansion is out of the picture I'm looking for another place to take my teasers, or wondering if I should just go the Parlay route.
Well done, Jeff.

Although, if you could, to help people that are reading, you should try to post plays before the games go off.

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elipsesjeff
Old 10-23-2006, 09:51 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
It's been a couple weeks but I put some money on some games for week 7.

Started off the day putting 1 unit each on:

Pittsburgh (under 39) vs Atlanta (-102)
Philadelphia (over 42.5) vs Tampa Bay (-101)
Arizona (under 39.5) vs Oakland (-105)

And then put second half bets on:

Philadelphia (-7 2nd half) vs Tampa Bay (+119)
Pittsburgh (over 20.5 2nd half) vs Atlanta (-111)
Arizona vs Oakland (+3 second half) (+105)

Overall netted 2 units, with the Arizona vs Oakland game as my only moneymaker. The Other half time bets where there for hedging the places I was in, which I would say wasn't the best place to be in. I think the over 20.5 on the Pittsburgh was a pretty obvious bet and had a lot of confidence in that, and the Arizona/Oakland game I bet on accident, as I originally thought I had Arizona -3 but actually had the under. To my surprise I won both units and am pretty happy.

Now that Mansion is out of the picture I'm looking for another place to take my teasers, or wondering if I should just go the Parlay route.
Well done, Jeff.

Although, if you could, to help people that are reading, you should try to post plays before the games go off.
I hardly get up in time lol, I get up like 30 mins before the game starts if i'm lucky. The two previous weeks before that I missed putting bets on the game because of that reason.

I don't usually check the lines until day of and make my decisions.


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-24-2006, 04:55 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Put some bets on the Monday night game.

1st Bet before the game: Over 43.5 for +105.

At halftime they weren't at 1/2 the score yet and it looked like it was going to be a defensive game the way Dallas was getting its ass kicked on onfense. So, I made 2 bets one a hedging and another a speculation.

My hedge was 2nd half under 21 for +103, i almost wanted to put the over up as this was a nice price but remembered it was there to act as a hedge for my first one. So, I needed the score to be under 40 or over 43.5, and it well covered that so those two bets netted me like $4.

My second halftime bet was the Moneyline +$168 for the Giants and I jumped right on it. Orginally it was at 150 when i first put the bet in and, to my surprise it actually gave me better odds when I refreshed. This bet covered so I made like a little over 1 unit this game.

I have a question, when you have a game that is like +$168 or something like that, is it standard to bet the full unit as a risk or a portion of a unit so that if you win, you win a full unit?

I guess it doesn't matter but I was wondering which was 'standard.'


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ensign_lee
Old 10-24-2006, 05:08 AM #7 (permalink)  
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For bets, this is what usually is defined as "standard."

For anything with a - number (-101 or worse), it is x number of units risked to win 1 unit.

For anything with a + number (+100 or better), it is 1 unit risked to win x units.


Also, just to make sure, you do know that by taking the 2nd half moneyline on the Giants, you were effectively taking NYG -5 for the game, right? Just wanted to make sure you knew that and didn't think that was the spread to win outright.

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elipsesjeff
Old 10-24-2006, 12:13 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, I knew that


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-29-2006, 06:51 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 2nd Half Bets for Week 8:

Arbitrage bet 2 Units each side:
Greenbay Moneyline +$105
Arizona -.5 +$111

Profit: +$10 or +$22

Greenbay Moneyline 2nd+$105
Seattle vs Kansas City over 21 2nd half +$105

I BELIEVE these are my bets as Pinnacle was pissing me off and not letting me place bets. I couldn't even bet on the bears game until the 2nd half started and then it was too late. Needless to say, I'm pretty mad.


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-29-2006, 08:27 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 All bets covered, net +$223.

EDIT: Putting money on the over for the game tonight:

Dallas vs Carolina over 41.5 +114 at Pinnacle

I'm thinking with the star receivers TO vs Smith this game could be high octane. Although if they score less than 21 1st half i'll hedge.

Edit #2:

They scored 24 in the first half, but I'm always in for free money so I middled it at under 20.5 for the second half.

Here is what it looks like:

Combined score over 44.5: Net +$6
Between 41.5 and 44.5: Net +$214
Less than 41.5: Net $0


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-30-2006, 03:28 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 DAMNIT! I was soooooo close to middling. Oh well, not a bad day overall.


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elipsesjeff
Old 10-31-2006, 03:50 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 My bets for MNF all at Pinnacle:

New England at Minnesota (over 40.5) +114
New England at Minnesota (under 17.5 2nd half) +103
New England (-6.5 2nd half) at Minnesota +310
New England (Moneyline 2nd half) at Minnesota +156

If NE hits a field goal instead of going for 4th and 5 OR if the interception at the end of the game is run back for a touchdown I'm up $466 today. Since neither my over nor under bet covered, I lost both of those but still made $266, ~2.5 units.


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elipsesjeff
Old 11-12-2006, 06:12 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 Its been a couple weeks since I've bet anything, here are my picks for the games. I got up too late to bet on the early morning ones.

New Orleans (Moneyline) vs Pittsburgh +$270 at Pinnacle (2 units)

New Orleans (+6.5) vs Pittsburgh +$103 at Pinnacle (2 units)

Chicago vs NYG (over 37.5) -$101 at Pinnacle (1 unit)

Dallas (-6.5) vs Arizona -$101 at Pinnacle (1 unit)

Go Saints!


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elipsesjeff
Old 11-12-2006, 10:09 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 Halftime Bets:
Arizona (moneyline) +$126
If Dallas wins by 7 but not more than 10 + $225
If Dallas wins by more than 10 -$1
If Dallas wins by less than 7 then +$25

Pittsburgh (-4.5) +$125 5.5 units
If NO wins by 7 then +$192
If NO wins by 1-2 then +$1438
If NO wins by 3-6 then +$192
If Pittsburgh wins by 6 or less then +$498
If Pitssburgh wins by more than 6 + $292

Now thats one helluva middle!


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elipsesjeff
Old 11-13-2006, 04:10 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 Made almost 4 units today after the Bears game. I'm glad I placed my halftime bets!


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ensign_lee
Old 11-13-2006, 05:24 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Well done today Jeff! Nice job hedging out of that NO play!

And congrats on your Dallas pick; you were obviously in the right there.

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elipsesjeff
Old 11-13-2006, 11:35 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Placing the over 37.5 on MNF tonight, line is +107 on that.

For next week, I've already placed a bunch of bets, including 1 unit on the following at Pinnacle:

Chicago (-8) vs NYJ +116
Chicago (over 40.5) vs NYJ +107
Minnesota (moneyline) vs Miami +$181 (look for a good middle opportunity if Minnesota is winning at halftime), might increase this bet later in the week too
Minnesota (+3) vs Miami +$118 -I can't believe Miami is a favorite???
Minnesota (over 34.5) vs Miami +102
Indianapolis (-2.5) vs Dallas +110

I like choosing the + bets and chances are I'll be doing some middling at halftime anyway.


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elipsesjeff
Old 11-14-2006, 03:11 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 I'm such a noob. I am going to completely luckbox something again as I went and placed some halftime bets on MNF, and I thought I had an arbitrage opportunity. Well, I didn't

The lines were Tampa Bay -6.5 for +$550 and Carolina -7 for -$103. For some reason I thought that was an arbitrage but it wasnt until I was writing it down (and already placed bets) that I realized that if the teams scored within 6 points of each other, I was completly fucked, because I put a sum of about 9 units on those two lines as the arbitrage calculater says to do. Lets hope I can pull another one out of my ass...


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elipsesjeff
Old 11-14-2006, 03:53 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 And I again prove that I'm a luckbox. Almost put money on the over 24 for the second half but didn't but I still made 3.5 units out of my asnine play.


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elipsesjeff
Old 11-19-2006, 09:53 PM #20 (permalink)  
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 Arbitrage!!!



Thank you free $100

I'll post my results later. Teaser: I had Tennesse moneyline for +680


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Old 11-19-2006, 10:26 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Wait a second... if Indy wins by 7 you're out $949, right?
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Old 11-19-2006, 10:37 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 That's what it looks like to me, but I still don't get all of these middles.
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Old 11-19-2006, 11:36 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Wait a second... if Indy wins by 7 you're out $949, right?
Uh. Yes; that was definitely the scenario.

So it was more like RISK $949 TO WIN $100!!!!

Congrats on your free $100. Check your bets next time. Pinny doesn't often leave itself open to arbitrage opportunities at the same moment in time.

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elipsesjeff
Old 11-19-2006, 11:51 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Wait a second... if Indy wins by 7 you're out $949, right?
Hmmm....I guess it works better when they're tied. I'll have to watch that as I got lucky this time.

My other bets all stunk up, and I'm lucky to finish where I did. I placed another bet on the Colts right before the game at -2.5 for +116 that didn't cover. I did place a Tennesse bet for +680 earlier in the week that really helped out, I hedged that out at halftime for a profit of $220 or so. Other halftime bets include Miami -.5 to hedge part of the minnesota bet although on second thought I should have put two units on it. I put a first half bet at -7 for philadelphia as well to insure the 680 bet I had. Overall my record was: 5-9 with a loss of only $51, 1/2 a unit and is my first losing week in some time. Not too horrible but I need to be more careful. I wont be sportsbetting for the following week as I'll have inopportune times to make any halftime bets.


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Old 12-10-2006, 06:29 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 I can't believe it has been a while since I posted here. I made a few bets last week but nothing extraordinary. My picks for this week are:



Baltimore (moneyline) vs Kansas City +137
New Orleans vs Dallas (over 48) +102
Indianapolis (-1) vs Jacksonville +103
Oakland (+10) vs Cincinnati +103 (1/2 a unit)
Oakland (moneyline) vs Cincinnati +$485 (1/2 a unit)
New England (over 38) vs Miami +105

All Bets made at Pinnacle.


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Old 12-11-2006, 04:04 AM #26 (permalink)  
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 Well, the results:

-Baltimore won which was good.
-NO vs Dallas covered the over
-Indianapolis sucks ass
-Oakland didn't do anything (not surprised, but was my longshot of the week)
-If you had told me Miami would score 17 points I would have figured the over for a lock. Didnt happen.

Record of these bets: 2-3

Halftime bets:

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville (moneyline 2nd half) +172 --Covered, net 1units
Minnesota (moneyline) vs Detroit 2nd half --Tied
NYG vs Carolina (over 20) 2nd half -102--Didn't cover, lost 1/2 unit
New Orleans vs Dallas (under 24) 2nd half -120 --Didn't cover, lost 2 units
New Orleans (moneyline) vs Dallas 2nd half +390 --covered, won 2 units
New Orleans vs Dallas (-7) 2nd half -105 --didn't cover, lost 1/2 unit

Record of these bets: 2-3-1

Overall win: $25. Woohoo!! I hedged myself right out of profit during the NO game. I tried middling the over I placed before the game but I had no idea that NO was going to score like that in the 2nd half. I was able to get the $390 for NO moneyline and jumped on that ASAP for 1/2 a unit, but tried to middle that for 1/2 a unit to give Dallas -7 in case they come back to win the game. Today coulda been much worse, coulda been much better, but overall I'm not unhappy to be slightly positive.


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Old 12-14-2006, 08:17 PM #27 (permalink)  
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 Okay, this week I'm going to go for less exposure. Thursday night picks (following both zook and lee):

Teaser: San fran +16 and Under 44.5 for 1 unit, +100
Also, Prop bet of over 3.5 Field goals in the game, +185

And, my first 4 team Parlay: +1450

Dallas -3 vs Atlanta
Tampa Bay vs Chicago (over 33)
NYG (-5.5) vs Philly
Cincinnati (Money Line) vs Colts

At what point does it start to become +EV to hedge the bet? If the first two games win, then I bet opposite on NYG and then again on the Other game? That way I wont ever lose a bet? Let me know.


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Old 12-14-2006, 08:26 PM #28 (permalink)  
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It is almost NEVER +EV to hedge a bet.

The only time is when you want to 'take a position' on a game beforehand.

Say Team D +7 is +101 now. You're sure that you'll be able to get a better price on Team C -7 (same game) later.

So teams A and B win and Team C is up. But LOOKIE! Team C is now -7 (+118) or even -6.5 (-101)! NOW It's +EV to hedge.

But really, if you don't have enough confidence in a game to let your parlay ride out, you shouldn't include it in your parlay.

Otherwise, all you're doing is eating juice at both ends of your last game in order to do hold what you would have held if you hadn't included that last team at all.

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Old 12-14-2006, 08:49 PM #29 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
It is almost NEVER +EV to hedge a bet.

The only time is when you want to 'take a position' on a game beforehand.

Say Team D +7 is +101 now. You're sure that you'll be able to get a better price on Team C -7 (same game) later.

So teams A and B win and Team C is up. But LOOKIE! Team C is now -7 (+118) or even -6.5 (-101)! NOW It's +EV to hedge.

But really, if you don't have enough confidence in a game to let your parlay ride out, you shouldn't include it in your parlay.

Otherwise, all you're doing is eating juice at both ends of your last game in order to do hold what you would have held if you hadn't included that last team at all.
That was confusing.....

I read Yao's article about when its okay to hedge in the latest 2p2 magazine, and he stated you shouldn't hedge unless the result of that one game affects a large portion of winnings. Say, in my example, Games 1, 2 and 3 win and so whether I win $1450 or lose $100 is decided on Game 4. After doing the math, if moneyline is still Indy -170 then by hedging I'd be guaranteed $475.

What you're saying is, instead of doing the parlay just to hedge the 4th game, bet a unit on all 4 games, my risk would be $448 to win $460? I dont see how or why it would be bad to parlay then hedge the 4th game if I risk less for the opportunity to win less?? I must be missing something here.


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Old 12-14-2006, 09:00 PM #30 (permalink)  
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I think was lee is saying is that by hedging you're automatically paying more juice, so it's not as +EV as just betting the games straight up, or leaving the game you're least sure of out of your parlay or teaser. In your example, by the time that Cincy/Indy game rolls around, you're not really risking $100 to win $1450, because if you hedge, you win a sure $475. So you're risking $575 to win $1450. But look at the Cincy M/L right now, of course it's nowhere near 2.5:1 that that bet is offering. So the right thing to do from an EV standpoint is to let the parlay roll, because in the long run you'll win more that way. But the real issue here is bankroll size. If your bankroll is large enough, you should never hedge because you're sacrificing EV. But if $475 is a significant addition to your BR, I think hedging is OK.
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Old 12-14-2006, 09:09 PM #31 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
It is almost NEVER +EV to hedge a bet.

The only time is when you want to 'take a position' on a game beforehand.

Say Team D +7 is +101 now. You're sure that you'll be able to get a better price on Team C -7 (same game) later.

So teams A and B win and Team C is up. But LOOKIE! Team C is now -7 (+118) or even -6.5 (-101)! NOW It's +EV to hedge.

But really, if you don't have enough confidence in a game to let your parlay ride out, you shouldn't include it in your parlay.

Otherwise, all you're doing is eating juice at both ends of your last game in order to do hold what you would have held if you hadn't included that last team at all.
That was confusing.....

I read Yao's article about when its okay to hedge in the latest 2p2 magazine, and he stated you shouldn't hedge unless the result of that one game affects a large portion of winnings. Say, in my example, Games 1, 2 and 3 win and so whether I win $1450 or lose $100 is decided on Game 4. After doing the math, if moneyline is still Indy -170 then by hedging I'd be guaranteed $475.

What you're saying is, instead of doing the parlay just to hedge the 4th game, bet a unit on all 4 games, my risk would be $448 to win $460? I dont see how or why it would be bad to parlay then hedge the 4th game if I risk less for the opportunity to win less?? I must be missing something here.
NOOOOO....I did NOT say that it would be more +EV to just bet the four straight (although it really should be, but that's another topic).

By taking a 4-team parlay, you are in essence saying:
"I want to place a bet on Team 1; if it wins, I want to put all the winnings plus my original stake on Team 2; if it wins, I want to put all the winnings plus my original stake on Team 3; if THAT wins, I want to put all the winnings plus my original stake on Team 4."

So if you first three teams win and you hedge out of your last bet, what you are in essence doing for the last game is:
"I already have a bet on Team A to cover +2.5 (or whatever it is) at (-110). I would now like to put a bet on Team B to cover -2.5 at (-110) so that I can cover my ass and keep the money I won on the first three teams."

BUT...if you just hadn't included the fourth team in teh first place, you'd be good to go, AND you wouldn't have to eat the juice.

Now, what I was saying earlier was that it is ONLY +EV to hedge when you got something like Team A +2.5 (+102) and then later, when you were thinking about hedging, you also got Team B -2.5 (+108). See how you're not paying juice out both ends in this example, but you were earlier?

I hope that makes more sense. Back to studying finance...

{edited to include a well placed 'not' that I forgot to type earlier}

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Old 12-15-2006, 03:52 AM #32 (permalink)  
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 Heh, well, the field goal thing didn't pan out. What a crazy Game! I broke even after the teaser and the prop bet but oh well. Made another 1/2 unit or so Live betting and gambling it up. Those lines at Pinnacle can go up or down like friggin crazy.


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Old 12-17-2006, 06:55 AM #33 (permalink)  
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 Well, Dallas covered the spread, so G1 of my parlay worked out!

Other bets I've placed:

Miami (moneyline) vs buffalo +100
Chicago vs Tampa Bay (over 34.5) -103 (2 units)
Teaser: San Diego -3 and Chicago -7.5 (-110) at Pinnacle
Teaser: Tampa Bay +19.5 and Chicago v Tampa Bay over 28 (+100)
Teaser: San Diego -3 and San Diego v Kansas City (over 40.5)


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Old 12-17-2006, 06:43 PM #34 (permalink)  
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 Halftime Bets:

Baltimore (-3.5) vs Clevland (-105)
New England (-3) vs Houston (+100)
Pittsburgh (Moneyline) vs Carolina (+108)
Chicago (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay (-121)

Late Games:

Denver (-.5) vs Arizona +106
St. Louis (moneyline) vs Oakland (+115)


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elipsesjeff
Old 12-18-2006, 05:47 AM #35 (permalink)  
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 My record this week: 6-5, Net win: 1.25 Units. I wasnt that impressed with San Diego this week, I expected more offense and Tampa Bay screwed up a teaser I had as well. Didnt make any hedges this week though, and I had confidence in my bets.


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Old 12-21-2006, 07:53 AM #36 (permalink)  
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 My picks for week 15 are all on the Moneyline. I think I found some good value here:

Tennesee (moneyline) vs Buffalo (+205)
New Orleans (Moneyline) vs NYG (+139)
Baltimore (moneyline) vs Pittsburgh (+170)
Tampa Bay (moneyline) vs Cleveland (+$158)
New England (moneyline) vs Jacksonville (+140)
Arizona (moneyline) vs San Francisco (+$185)
New York Jets (moneyline) vs Miami (+$113)

Teaser: Indy vs Houston (over 41) and Chicago vs Detroit (over 36.5)


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zook
Old 12-21-2006, 04:04 PM #37 (permalink)  
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Does look like some good value. GL Jeff.
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-25-2006, 03:42 AM #38 (permalink)  
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 Can you say: awesomeness? My best sportsbetting day ever and it seemed like I couldn't lose. In fact, I didn't; with one exception: I put 1 unit on Bears -5.5 to Detroit and they ALMOST covered that as they won by 5 but I can handle losing ONE unit today.

My god, now that is a good xmas present to myself: Total win today: +10 units. All I need is NYJ to win tomorrow for it to be a clean sweep. Looks like I'm FTR's big winner this week!! (sorry Lee and zook)


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Old 12-25-2006, 03:49 AM #39 (permalink)  
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 Damnit Jeff, Im putting 4 units on the 'Boys tomorrow just to try and catch ya
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Old 12-25-2006, 04:25 AM #40 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Damnit Jeff, Im putting 4 units on the 'Boys tomorrow just to try and catch ya
heh, I've thought about putting money on Philly for the moneyline at +$300 but it dropped to 266 and i don't need to "gamble" for a big week so I won't do tomorrow's bet.


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zook
Old 12-25-2006, 12:42 PM #41 (permalink)  
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Nice work Jeff! Awesome day. I've got the Jets today too, hope I'm not bad luck for you...
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Old 12-25-2006, 02:50 PM #42 (permalink)  
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 Kinda want to bring this up. What would a 7 team m/l parlay have paid on 5 bucks yesterday?
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Old 12-26-2006, 03:11 AM #43 (permalink)  
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 About $650 or so.


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Old 12-26-2006, 03:19 AM #44 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
My picks for week 15 are all on the Moneyline. I think I found some good value here:

Tennesee (moneyline) vs Buffalo (+205)
New Orleans (Moneyline) vs NYG (+139)
Baltimore (moneyline) vs Pittsburgh (+170)
Tampa Bay (moneyline) vs Cleveland (+$158)
New England (moneyline) vs Jacksonville (+140)
Arizona (moneyline) vs San Francisco (+$185)
New York Jets (moneyline) vs Miami (+$113)

Teaser: Indy vs Houston (over 41) and Chicago vs Detroit (over 36.5)
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda
Kinda want to bring this up. What would a 7 team m/l parlay have paid on 5 bucks yesterday?
Sorry Jeff, $5 would have paid you $3,694

Teams Prices Factor
# 1: 3.05
# 2: 2.39
# 3: 2.7
# 4: 2.58
# 5: 2.4
# 6: 2.85
# 7: 2.13
Amount($): 5

Paylay Payout: $3,694
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Old 12-26-2006, 06:54 PM #45 (permalink)  
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 Nice, i really didn't spend all that much work on it :P. Anyway, I finished the clean sweep 8/8 on all my moneyline and teasers, the only thing I lost for week 16 was Bears -5.5. Net for the week: 11 units.


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Old 12-26-2006, 07:03 PM #46 (permalink)  
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Nice week Jeff!
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Old 12-26-2006, 08:45 PM #47 (permalink)  
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HOLY...

WELL DONE!!!

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Old 01-02-2007, 07:02 AM #48 (permalink)  
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 Well, For Wild Card Weekend I'm staying with my moneylines, and I'm betting the underdog again.

I like KC Moneyline +250 vs the Colts as zook mentioned, that as +EV written all over it.

I'm taking the jets +350 for only 1/2 a unit because although they've beaten them once this year, I don't know if Jets can do it again. But, at +350 it's hard to not pass this up.

I'm also thinking Dallas will pull ahead of Seattle and NYG an upset of Philly, at +134 and +260 respectfully. These are just my gut feelings on this one.


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Old 01-06-2007, 05:52 PM #49 (permalink)  
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Quote:
I like KC Moneyline +250 vs the Colts as zook mentioned, that as +EV written all over it.
Your throwing money out the window.
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Old 01-08-2007, 06:49 AM #50 (permalink)  
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 Well, I was 0-4 this weekend in sportsbets but I think Dallas doesn't muff that field goal they win that game. Also, NYG played Philly tough today but in the end they sucked balls too. However, I think I have some great prices on the games next week:

Seattle (+9.5) vs Chicago -113
Seattle (moneyline) vs Chicago +360

Apparently the sportsbooks have a lot of confidence in the Bears, obviously they DONT live in chicagoland. Seattle wins this game more often than not IMO.

Also, I dont want Philly to win next week because then they may face the bears, so I'm going to put them on the Moneyline for +200 against New Orleans. Its still a good value bet and I've been betting against Philly the past few weeks and they've won everytime, so time to change that luck!


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