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rubixstreub
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12-04-2005, 01:47 AM
Post subject: Calling Math guys for a BJ Standard Deviation Question
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 887
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$6 bets playing one hand at a time
or
$2 bets playing 3 hands at a time
Is there a difference? I would think your standard deviation is going to be lower playing more hands for less money but it might not matter. I figure it's like the coin flipping question, each hand is independant, meaning $2 bets you risk far smaller standard deviation, despite betting the same amount of money each deal.
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eeeee
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 906
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Variance is lower with the 3-$2 hands. Many, many rounds you will lose $2 or win $2, or some other possible option.
With the $6 hand, you can only lose it all, tie, or win -- there is no half wins or 1/2 losses.
It does not affect EV. Variance is swings, risk.
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I'm a know-it-all.
No, really.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Realize that the $2 bets are not independant.
Since all 3 are played against the same dealer hand, you will often win all 3 or lose all 3. For example when the dealer busts or has blackjack.
Nonetheless, your standard deviation will be lower with 3 $2 bets, but not as low as if you made single $2 bets per hand.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Are you talking betting $6? or betting $600?
From Demi's point it sounds like playing 3 - $2 hands at one time against the same dealer would be worse eV than playing one $6 hand, which is way more important than variance.
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Aces
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 832
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
Are you talking betting $6? or betting $600?
From Demi's point it sounds like playing 3 - $2 hands at one time against the same dealer would be worse eV than playing one $6 hand, which is way more important than variance.
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Shouldn't EV be the same regardless of bet size? It's just the variance that changes?
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eeeee
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 906
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Aces
Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
Are you talking betting $6? or betting $600?
From Demi's point it sounds like playing 3 - $2 hands at one time against the same dealer would be worse eV than playing one $6 hand, which is way more important than variance.
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Shouldn't EV be the same regardless of bet size? It's just the variance that changes? |
Yes. EV is the same.
What some people don't grasp is the role of Variance. Bet size in relation to the WR and bonus and weighted results (like video poker paying big for RF) both affect variance significantly. Increased variance increases "poor me" stories and "look at me" stories. Example -- check recent threads about Golden Palace ... "I won $300!" ... "I lost it all in 7 bets!". Increased betsize.
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I'm a know-it-all.
No, really.
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Aces
Shouldn't EV be the same regardless of bet size? It's just the variance that changes?
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Yes, if you care comparing playing one $6 hand vs. 3 - $2 hands, consecutively.
But, if you're playing 3 hands simultaneously against one dealer then I believe eV is different. If the dealer busts, then you win 3 hands (same as one bet), but if the dealer doesn't bust then each of your 3 hands has to beat his. All 3 won't beat the dealer every time, which would lower eV, making this betting scheme less profitable (actually more lossy).
I was trying to ask a question and make an unrelated point. I asked about the $6 vs $600 because I wondered why rubixstreub was pondering variance (i.e. What if I only had $6? Should I make 3 bets, or 1? If I have $600 what should I expect playing $6 vs $2).
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