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HockeyBoy

10-18-2006, 07:56 PM Post subject: Basketball Betting - How To Win Money.

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I have a separate sportsbetting thread on here but wanted to post a basketball specific method I use to win money betting basketball. Betting on the NBA and NCAA basketball can bring you a lot of cash if you can find the time during the course of the day to analyze the lines.

Here are the details ...

NCAA basketball is especially good for betting on "middles". That is an area where you can find value. However it does require that you spend time monitoring lines at different online sportsbooks. What I do is have both my Pinnacle account and Bowmans account open on my computer screen at the same time. I then go over the list of betting lines on each site. I might come across something like this in NCAA basketball:

At Pinnacle: Michigan State -5.5 -103 (vs. Michigan)
At Bowmans: Michigan +6 -105 (vs. Michigan State)

This is a game I would wager on. I might bet $1030 on Michigan State and $1050 on Michigan. I have a chance to hit a "half-middle" on this game. If the game ends with Michigan State winning by exactly 6 I win $1000 at Pinnacle and my bet at Bowmans is a push (get my money back). If the game ends at a different result the most I will either lose is $30 or $50 on this game. At worst I only have to hit a "half-middle" with spreads as low as this, once in every 20 games to have a profit. Also note that I would not/may not bet on this "half-middle" if the spread was higher (ie. if both teams were -106 I would lay off or wager a smaller amount). During the NCAA basketball season you can find lots of games like this especially on the weekends when lots of teams are playing. I'll be posting my bets when the time comes. You can also find some nice middles on NBA totals. An example:

At Pinnacle: Detroit OVER 196.5 -102 (vs. Toronto)
At Bowmans: Toronto UNDER 197.5 -103 (vs. Detroit)

Here we have a chance at a "full middle". On this game I would probably wager $2040 on Detroit OVER 196.5 and wager $2060 on Toronto UNDER 197.5. Let's say the game finishes with a final score of Detroit 105, Toronto 92. I would win $4000! The most you would have lost is $60. In this case you only have to hit one of these for every 66.7 games that has a line spread of -05. When one of these babies hit it is real sweet and believe me over the course of a season you will hit them. I'll be posting my bets on these as well when the time comes. This is an area where you do have to spend time monitoring the lines during the course of the day as lines do fluctuate. Lines on a game that do not look appealing to you in the morning may offer an attractive opening in the late afternoon. Personally, I might look at the online sportsbook lines 8-10 times during the course of the day for a period of 10-15 minutes each time.
On a side note, the nice thing about betting at online sportsbooks is the fact you get extra money from them via signup/reload bonuses. Pinnacle has a 10% signup bonus and the lowest juice I have found. Bowmans also has a signup bonus as well as monthly reload bonuses of 10%. This is another area where you can find value.

The nice thing about this method is that you don't need to know much, if anything, about basketball. This is a method that is geared towards people that want to use a mathematical approach to betting.

Once the basketball season starts up I will post all my basketball bets in this thread.

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euphoricism

10-20-2006, 01:44 PM

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I like this.

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HockeyBoy

11-01-2006, 06:30 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Basketball bets made today at Pinnacle:
$200 on Toronto +7 EVEN
$50 on NY Knicks/Mem. UNDER 194.5 +101
$100 on Utah +1 +101

Basketball bets made today at Bowmans:
$55 on NY Knicks/Mem. OVER 194 -110
$110 on Houston EVEN -110

Note that I am making some basketball bets to try and catch a couple of "half-middles". I will continue to monitor the lines as the day progresses in hopes of making more of these bets.

Eric

11-01-2006, 06:46 PM

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Excellent Post HockyBoy.

I found this same sort of opportunity with football last season: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=19253

zook

11-01-2006, 07:00 PM

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I'll be monitoring this thread HockeyBoy, thanks. I understand the NY/Mem. and Houston/Utah bets are shooting for half-middles, and I assume you're handicapping the Toronto game? You wouldn't make a bet because you think you'll be able to get a middle or half-middle later, right?

HockeyBoy

11-01-2006, 08:34 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zook

I made the bet on the Raptors because I live in Toronto. Gives me an extra reason to watch the game tonight and cheer the boys on. Thanks for that link Eric though when I bet on "middles" or "half-middles" I prefer that the juice I am giving up is less than -010; ie. each team being -105 or less or variations of that; ie. one team -102, other team -108.

LimpinAintEZ

11-01-2006, 10:03 PM

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thanks - im posting here because its the only way i know how to find anything again

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HockeyBoy

11-03-2006, 05:10 PM

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Here are the bets I have made so far today (looking for "half-middles" to hit) on tonight's NBA action:

NBA bets made at Pinnacle:

$102 on Toronto -1 -102
$102 on New Orleans +4 -102
$306 on Min./Den. UNDER 200 -102

Offsetting NBA bets made at Bowmans:

$110 on Milwaukee +1.5 -110
$110 on Indiana -3.5 -110
$330 on Min./Den. OVER 199 -110

I will be looking for more of these as the day progresses and will post them before game time if I can.

HockeyBoy

11-03-2006, 07:18 PM

#9 (permalink)

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I am betting on one additional "half-middle" on tonight's NBA:

$105 on Indiana -2 -105 (1st half; bet made at Pinnacle)
$110 on New Orleans +2.5 -110 (1st half; bet made at Bowmans)

zook

11-03-2006, 09:49 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quick question for you Hockeyboy... earlier this morning I bet NO/Ind UNDER 196 (-110) @ Pinnacle. But the total moved down, so now Pinnacle has NO/Ind OVER 194 (+102) and I have a chance for a full middle. Is it cool to play both sides at the same sportsbook?

ensign_lee

11-03-2006, 10:24 PM

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Usually, it's not cool.

But at Pinnacle, they don't care at all. They're first class.

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zook

11-03-2006, 10:26 PM

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Thanks lee! Just placed it. The total went down to 193 with +111 juice! So psyched.

zook

11-04-2006, 10:13 PM

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Hockeyboy... how many cents of juice are you willing to pay for a half-middle? Full middle?

HockeyBoy

11-04-2006, 11:05 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zook

Hockeyboy... how many cents of juice are you willing to pay for a half-middle? Full middle?

I like to keep it at -015 or less. Ie. One team -105 and the other team -110. It is the bet size that I adjust when betting a "half-middle" or "full-middle". I.e. If the juice I am paying is -015 and it is a "half-middle" I would bet less then if I was able to hit a "full-middle". Also I would tend to bet more on the point spread in the game compared to the over/under as they seem to be a little easier to hit. By the way, nice offsetting bets you were able to make and yes I have made bets on either side of a game at Pinnacle in the past. They allowed it so I assume it is okay.

A few bets on today's NBA action as I go for some "half-middles":

At Pinnacle:
$202 on Phx. +4 -105
$51 on Bos/Wsh UNDER200 -102
$52.5 on NY Knicks +2 -105 (first half)
$51.50 on Clev. -2 -103 (first half)
$50.50 on G.St./Utah UNDER104 -101 (first half)
$51.50 on Phx/LAC UNDER109.5 -103

At Bowmans:
$220 on LAC -3.5 -110
$55 on Bos/Wsh OVER199.5 -110
$55 on Indiana -1.5 -110 (first half)
$55 on Char. +2.5 -110 (first half)
$55 on G.St./Utah OVER103.5 -110
$55 on Phx/LAC OVER109 -110

zook

11-05-2006, 12:30 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Thanks a lot, 'preciate it.

euphoricism

11-05-2006, 08:15 PM

#16 (permalink)

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how does a half-middle work? I get full-middles...

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HockeyBoy

11-06-2006, 12:37 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

how does a half-middle work? I get full-middles...

A "half-middle" is hitting your number but only one of your bets wins; the other bet pushes. Here are examples:

A) "Full-middle"

Bet 1) $110 on NY Knicks +4.5 -110
Bet 2) $110 on Toronto -3.5 -110

If Toronto wins by 4 you have hit your middle and both bets pay off (profit of $200)

B) "Half-middle"

Bet 1) $105 on NY Knicks +4 -105
Bet 2) $105 on Toronto -3.5 -105

If Toronto wins by 4 you have hit your middle but only one bet pays off while the other bet pushes (profit of $100; only 50% (half) of your bets could possibly win)

There is also a "Double half-middle" though they usually only show up on point totals in basketball. An example:

Bet 1) $105 on NY Knicks / Toronto OVER 210 -105
Bet 2) $105 on NY Knicks / Toronto UNDER 211 -105

In this case you are looking for the game to finish with a total of 210 or 211 points. If one of those two totals hit one bet will push and one bet wins. Hope this helps you out. Let me know if you need further clarification.

HockeyBoy

11-06-2006, 12:39 AM

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I had to make an offsetting bet on San Diego as I had three of my large parlay bets remain LIVE heading into that game. This bet was made at Pinnacle:

$4500 on San Diego -14.5 +106

That bet ended up being a loser and I just made an offsetting bet on the third game on those LIVE tickets. Bet was made at Pinnacle:

$7500 on Indianapolis +2.5 +125

I also made a proline hockey bet and an offsetting bet at Pinnacle. Bets were:

Proline: $2000 on NY Rangers (NHL) to WIN Sunday (2.50), Philly (NHL) to WIN Monday (2.90), Dallas (NHL) to WIN Monday (1.90)
Pinnacle: $2625 on Buffalo (NHL) to WIN -125

Eric

11-06-2006, 06:02 AM

#19 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by HockeyBoy

$7500 on Indianapolis +2.5 +125

Nice!

HockeyBoy

11-06-2006, 03:35 PM

#20 (permalink)

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I lost $31 on my Friday bets but did hit one small "half-middle" on Sat. which helped to give me a small profit of $34.50 on the day. The "half-middle" I hit on Sat. was on the first half spread of the Cleveland / Charlotte game.

HockeyBoy

11-06-2006, 07:49 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Bets made on Monday Nov. 6:

$103 on Detroit (NBA) +5 -103 (made at Pinnacle)
$110 on Utah (NBA) -4.5 -110 (made at Bowmans)

euphoricism

11-07-2006, 12:07 AM

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The detroit utah is a half-middle, right? I need more practice reading spreads hehe

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euphoricism

11-07-2006, 12:19 AM

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Ok I'm going to do a week or so of paper-betting before I jump into this just to make sure I've got it right...

Heres a line I just found, this is a half-middle right?

Minnesota Timberwolves +5 -108 @ pinny
Sacramento Kings -4.5 (but it doesnt say the juice) @ bowmans

A) How much does the juice effect things?
B) Did I atleast get it right? If the kings win by 5 i should hit?

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euphoricism

11-07-2006, 12:31 AM

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Full middle?

Blazers OVR 192.5 -112 @pin
Clippers UND 193.5 (not listed) @bow

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ensign_lee

11-07-2006, 12:41 AM

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(not listed) odds are um...pretty crappy.

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euphoricism

11-07-2006, 12:49 AM

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hehe i dunno why bowmans doesnt list them. Maybe bowmans is always -110? from looking at HB's, thats what it appears to be.

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HockeyBoy

11-08-2006, 05:39 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

The lines you show above is a "half-middle".

A) Juice definately affects things. By the way, Bowmans is always -110 unless otherwise noted. With the lines you have above I wouldn't make this bet as you are giving away too much juice in going for a "half-middle". I prefer it to be, at worst, a -015 differential when going for a "half-middle". Ie. if the juice above was Min. +5 -105, Sac. -4.5 -110 I might make small offsetting bets on the game. Increase the size of your bet as the juice spread lowers. I.e. > If on that same game you were able to get it at Min. +5 +102, Sac. -4.5 -110; the size of your bet would increase

B) Yes you got it right. If Sac. wins by 5 the Pinnacle bet pushes and you win the bet you made at Bowmans.

On the betting front ... I didn't make any bets yesterday as I had a lot of personal things to attend to but got a nice "half-middle" in late last night on today's NBA action and also decided to put in one straight bet on a game tonight:

$500 on Orlando -6.5 +104 (at Pinnacle)
$550 on Seattle +7 -110 (at Bowmans)
$103 on Philly +3.5 -103

HockeyBoy

11-10-2006, 07:06 PM

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I got some additional offsetting bets in just before game time/start of 2nd half on Wed. and those bets were:

$450 on NY Knicks/Denver OVER109 (1st half) +112 (at Pinnacle)
$495 on NY Knicks/Denver UNDER109 -110 (1st half) (at Bowmans)
$51.50 on Sea. +6.5 -103 (2nd half) (at Pinnacle)
$55 on Orlando -6 -110 (2nd half) (at Bowmans)
$52 on Det./Sac. UNDER187 -104 (at Pinnacle)
$55 on Det./Sac. OVER186 -110 (at Bowmans)

Here are bets I made on Thursday games:

$51.50 on Chi./Clev. OVER186 -103 (at Pinnacle)
$55 on Chi./Clev. UNDER187 -110 (at Bowmans)
$51.50 on Young. St./Mich. St. UNDER66 (1st half) -103
$55 on Young.St./Mich. St. OVER 65 (1st half) -110
$100 on Boston (NHL) -1.5 +225

-----

Friday's Basketball bets:
$54 on Cornell +10 -108 (at Pinnacle)
$55 on Northwestern -9 -110 (at Bowmans)
$105 on Penn St. -18 -105 (at Pinnacle)
$110 on Morehead St. +19 -110 (at Bowmans)
$110 on Atlanta +5 -110 (at Bowmans)

ensign_lee

11-10-2006, 07:36 PM

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If y'all care, I think I found one that would qualify for what you want to do.

Nine:
Denver Nuggets +3.5 (-110) (with the Friday free half point) vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Pinnacle:
Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (-104) vs. Denver Nuggets

OR...you could scalp it and sell Pinnacle up to -3.5 +113 or so.

Thought y'all would like to know. Pinny lean is on Denver tonight...wow.

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HockeyBoy

11-13-2006, 03:49 PM

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Sorry about the lack of updates the last couple of days but an opportunity (related to sportsbetting) has presented itself and I am flying down to Vegas on Wed. morning to discuss the matter further in person and all my thoughts are directed towards the trip. It seems to be a legit opportunity as the person making the offer is a known poker pro and they have sent me enough $ to my PokerStars account to cover my flight. I'll only be in Vegas for two nights and will update sometime on Sat. when I return home to Toronto.

euphoricism

11-14-2006, 04:45 PM

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I just placed my first basketball bet using the WSEX promotion....

Colorado V Baylor

$200 bets on...
Colorado -1 +101 @Pinny
Baylor PK NoJuice @ Wsex

I really hope I did that right. It should be a full-middle, right?

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zook

11-14-2006, 04:55 PM

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Eupho, I'm sorry, but you didn't. You stand to lose $200 if Colorado wins by 1. If Baylor wins, you break even, if Colorado wins by more than 1, you win $2.

euphoricism

11-14-2006, 04:59 PM

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Shit.

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euphoricism

11-14-2006, 05:02 PM

#34 (permalink)

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Anything I can do, now that I've risked $200 to win $2?

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zook

11-14-2006, 05:15 PM

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I think you have a couple of options.

1. You could take a position on either team. For example, you could take Colorado St. PK (-104) at Pinny for $200: you'd breakeven if they won by 1, win ~$192 if they win by more than 1, lose $200 if Baylor wins. Or you could take Baylor at +1.5 (-112) at Pinny for $200: you'd breakeven if C.St. won by 1, win ~$176 if Baylor wins, lose $200 if C.St. wins by more than one.

2. You could set up a middle around the C. St. -1 and just pay extra juice. At Pinny you would bet C. St. PK (-104) AND Baylor +1.5 (-112) for $100 each. This would win you $200 (minus 16 pts. of juice) if C. St. won by 1, cancelling out your other middle.

Someone PLEASE check my math on this!

ensign_lee

11-14-2006, 05:26 PM

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If you take a position on either team, you don't really 'make the middle go away.'

If you really just want to eat the juice and get out of your bets, then you're going to need to bet Baylor +1 at whatever juice it takes to cancel your C. State -1. You're going to lost regardless.

Then, you're going to have to take C. State at pk (at whatever juice) at Pinny (or WSEX if they let you bet both sides of the game) to cancel out your Baylor bet.

Realistically, that's your only true way out of it.

Or, you could leave it be and hope that C. State doesn't win by 1.

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euphoricism

11-14-2006, 05:38 PM

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Fark me. Lettin it ride. 10 buyins hoping for no 2-outters...

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zook

11-14-2006, 05:39 PM

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Thanks for the input lee.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

If you take a position on either team, you don't really 'make the middle go away.'

I agree, but it does mean that he's at least risking ~$200 to win ~$200, instead of risking $200 to win $2.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

If you really just want to eat the juice and get out of your bets, then you're going to need to bet Baylor +1 at whatever juice it takes to cancel your C. State -1. You're going to lost regardless.

Then, you're going to have to take C. State at pk (at whatever juice) at Pinny (or WSEX if they let you bet both sides of the game) to cancel out your Baylor bet.

Realistically, that's your only true way out of it.

Yeah, this works too... I think you pay a little more juice since you're placing two $200 bets, rather than two $100 bets setting up a middle around C. St. -1, but you're moving the lines a little less, so it shouldn't be a big deal.

However, I just checked Pinnacle and this all could be moot, as the line has moved. Baylor's now -1.5 and you can't move the line past PK... might want to start searching for Baylor +1's on other books pronto. Won't be hard to find C. St. PK, it's +111 on Pinnacle right now.

ensign_lee

11-14-2006, 10:45 PM

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What are the blinds at 40NL?

Just wondering, 'cause you said 10 buyins and $200 + $200 = $400...

Here's hoping you don't get middled horribly.

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euphoricism

11-15-2006, 03:41 AM

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Theyre tied in 2nd OT. Christ.

{edit} Baylor won by 5 in second OT. My heart is racing, as Col. S was up by 1 for quite some time. I'm a total mess right now, and damn I'm scared of sportsing.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
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euphoricism

11-15-2006, 04:05 AM

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Lee: I could only lose one bet if Colorado won by exactly 1, right?

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
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ensign_lee

11-15-2006, 04:42 AM

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Yes; you could only lose one of the bets. The other would push.

So...did you win $2?

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euphoricism

11-15-2006, 11:40 AM

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nope, broke even.

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euphoricism

11-15-2006, 12:59 PM

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Ok I think I've figured out where my screwup came from..

Lets look at this half-middle bet for the Ohio/Kentucky game...

Bet 1) Kentucky -13.5 -102
Bet 2) Miami Oh +13 -102

Here are my outcomes
Kentucky wins by > 13
Bet 1 win
Bet 2 lose

Kentucky loses or wins by < 13
Bet 1 lose
Bet 2 win

Kentucky wins by exactly 13
Bet 1 lose
Bet 2 push

Net being that if I hit my middle, i LOSE a bet.

Where am I going wrong?

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
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euphoricism

11-15-2006, 01:03 PM

#45 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Alright I think ive figured it. The + side needs to be bigger than the - side for it to work. NOT the other way around. GG Euph.

Now I'll shut up for a little while and let people who know what theyre doing fill the thread up before imparting my moronicity upon you all some more.

{edit}I've also noticed Mansion has precious few lines that use the half-point modifier. With the no-juice promotion at wsex for college basketball, almost every game is a good priced half-middle.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

euphoricism

11-15-2006, 02:38 PM

#46 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Bah. I suck at this.

Got a middle lined up at pinny and wsex, sent the pinny bet, by the time i had submitted it and gotten the password in, the wsex one had moved to the identical pointspread and I just lost $5 on it.

Sheesh.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

zook

11-15-2006, 04:57 PM

#47 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 3,676

I'm not sure how the WSEX interface works, but if possible, open the sites in seperate windows or tabs, and do everything but confirm both bets on each site. It should only take you a couple of seconds to confirm each, so a line move should be almost impossible.

euphoricism

11-15-2006, 08:51 PM

#48 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Grabbed a halfmiddle,

Kansas +2.5 noJuice
Rutgers -2 -106

Woulda bet more. Shoulda bet more, but the screwup i made earlier this morning is tying up a lot of money right now.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

ensign_lee

11-15-2006, 09:48 PM

#49 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin

Posts: 2,237

That one is a half middle.

And good job figuring out your mistake from earlier. Good luck, eupho.

Get your own starcraft 2 signature at sc2sig.com

euphoricism

11-16-2006, 05:17 AM

#50 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Only thing that woulda been that whole thing better would have been hitting one of my half-middles. Alas, both missed. But I've paid practically no vig on them, so I can't complain.

I have about a $500 roll for sportsbetting at the moment (though its still more important to my poker than sports)... using that dollar amount.. how much should I be betting on these middles? I've been betting as much as I can and praying to get one, but is it more cost effective and logical to play lots of smaller ones?

Thankee

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

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