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ensign_lee
Old 12-29-2006, 10:55 PM #51 (permalink)  
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Also,

Philadelphia Moneyline (+165)
2 units at Matchbook

Again, fading the public, but this time with a Pinny Lean.

Sorry for the short replies, I'm a little busy tonight.

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ensign_lee
Old 12-30-2006, 05:04 AM #52 (permalink)  
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Orlando fell short by one point. Darn. Oh well. 3-1 on the night with M/L dogs is a night I'll gladly take.

Record Update:

YTD: 10-14
Units Won: 17.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

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bigspenda73
Old 12-30-2006, 05:09 AM #53 (permalink)  
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bigspenda73 will become famous soon enoughbigspenda73 will become famous soon enough
 Damnit Lee, tell me when you're going to go 3-1 ahead of time plz. Nice night sir
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ensign_lee
Old 12-30-2006, 10:32 PM #54 (permalink)  
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Thanks bigspenda. I'll try to keep that in mind for ya.

For tonight, I only have the one bet:

Minnesota Moneyline (+116.62)
3 units at Matchbook

Public is on New Jersey at right around 65-66%. Reverse line move from +3.5 (if you used opening lines at Cris or theGreek) or from +3 (if you used opening lines at Pinnacle).

Judgement call by me to make this a 3 unit play instead of a 2 unit play. Cris and theGreek held the opening line up at +3.5 for almost an hour until Pinnacle popped it out at +3 when they adjusted. The 66/65% is almost enough to not increase this as a fade the public play, but just barely makes it. The combination of these two makes this +1 unit.

Then, the reverse line movement from +3 to +2 adds 2 units. Ergo, 3 unit play.

{edited because I put 2 units before when it should have been 3}

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ensign_lee
Old 12-31-2006, 02:08 AM #55 (permalink)  
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Minnesota couldn't pull it through for us today. Darn. Oh well.

YTD: 10-15
Units Won: 14.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

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ensign_lee
Old 12-31-2006, 10:43 PM #56 (permalink)  
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Philadelphia Moneyline (+390)
2 units at matchbook

Sorry. no time. ROCKETS GAME AT TOYOTA. BYES!

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ensign_lee
Old 01-02-2007, 10:34 PM #57 (permalink)  
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Darn. So that makes my record:

YTD: 10-16
Units Won: 12.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

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ensign_lee
Old 01-02-2007, 11:48 PM #58 (permalink)  
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Allrighty. To kick off Tuesday, I have the following:

Philadelphia Moneyline (+286)
2 units at BetTrojan

70-75% of the public is on Denver, thinking that AI is going to light his old team up. And yet the line hasn't moved. I'm thinking AI will try to do too much and end up losing the game for the Nuggets, essentially playing 1 on 5 the entire game. Plus, who else would know how best to beat AI than his old team?

Chicago Moneyline (+150)
2 units at BetTrojan
I'm averaging the opening lines and saying the line opened at -4. Pinnacle came out with it at -5, theGreek opened it at -3.5 (and never budged), and BetCris opened it at -4.

The line is now -3.5. I'll just count that as a half point line move. The public is on Phoenix at just barely 66% or so, but the Pinny lean is sitting on Chicago. Ergo, 2 units.

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zook
Old 01-03-2007, 03:32 AM #59 (permalink)  
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Ridiculous loss in Chicago, but nice f'ing hit on Philly!!!
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ensign_lee
Old 01-03-2007, 03:39 AM #60 (permalink)  
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Hah. I just looked up the box score. Way to get outscored by 11 points in the fourth, Chicago. Freaking ridiculous...

Oh well.

YTD: 11-17
Units Won: 16.08
Spread Difference Factor: 5 games

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zook
Old 01-03-2007, 05:17 AM #61 (permalink)  
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Not just that, Chicago lead the whole game until less than a minute left in the 4th. And down 2, Phoenix went for the win instead of the tie and Barbosa hit a 3 with 1 second left.
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ensign_lee
Old 01-03-2007, 10:24 PM #62 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Not just that, Chicago lead the whole game until less than a minute left in the 4th. And down 2, Phoenix went for the win instead of the tie and Barbosa hit a 3 with 1 second left.
D'oh...

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ensign_lee
Old 01-03-2007, 11:41 PM #63 (permalink)  
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Boston Moneyline (+142)
2 units at Pinnacle

Reverse line movement two points from +4 to +3. 66+% of the public. Rounded down from 2.5 units to 2.

GO Boston?

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ensign_lee
Old 01-04-2007, 03:30 AM #64 (permalink)  
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Boston covered, but lost the game, so no dice for me. In fact, it seems like half the games today, the underdog covered, but didn't win. Dang.

At any rate, record update:

YTD: 11-18
Units Won: 14.08
Spread Difference Factor: 6 games

Blech...looks like I'm on a little losing streak again.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 10:51 PM #65 (permalink)  
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Been a little while, eh? When I was traveling to/from New York and hanging out with people there, didn't have too much of a chance to get online and handicap. Probably a good thing; things I would have bet on just lost while I was in NY.

Allrighty. I DID have time to do some work tonight, so here goes:

For tonight:

New York -5.5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

Pinny doesn't seem to want any money at all on New York and has been like that all day, first serving up a NY -6 (-111) and now serving up a NY -6.5 while everyone else has NY -6.

Of course, with the kickout of US residents, I'm not sure that this should be that significant, but I guess we'll see...

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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 10:53 PM #66 (permalink)  
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Indiana +4.5
1 unit at Skybook

Public is all over Dallas (I thought about taking Dallas on first glance as well ), but the line hasn't budged...at all. So here we are.

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zook
Old 01-12-2007, 11:03 PM #67 (permalink)  
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Welcome back. Both your teams are hot, although I would have trouble betting against Dallas playing an Eastern Conference team. GL tonight!
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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 11:09 PM #68 (permalink)  
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Thanks, zook. Woot go FTR team!

Orlando +5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

Just under 70% of the pulic is on LA, but the line has gone from -4.5 to -4. Yay free half points.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-12-2007, 11:23 PM #69 (permalink)  
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One from another capper:

Memphis -1 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

That's my reasoning and I'm sticking to it.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-13-2007, 05:28 AM #70 (permalink)  
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Wow. I only barely pulled off 2-2 tonight, with both my dogs covering, but not winning. Wow. So instead of losing 4.2 units, I lost .2 units. Not a bad tradeoff, I guess.

Anyhoo..

YTD: 13-20
Units Won: 13.88

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ensign_lee
Old 01-17-2007, 04:46 PM #71 (permalink)  
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With the current unsteady state of the offshore industry, I'm not sure any 'leads' or 'leans' can be trusted.

Until the whole flabbergasted mess gets sorted out, I doubt I will have many plays, if at all.

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ensign_lee
Old 01-17-2007, 04:46 PM #72 (permalink)  
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With the current unsteady state of the offshore industry, I'm not sure any 'leads' or 'leans' can be trusted.

Until the whole flabbergasted mess gets sorted out, I doubt I will have many plays, if at all. Just thought I'd point that out, in case anybody was still reading.

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