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bigspenda73
Old 09-22-2006, 11:22 PM     Post subject: 4 team parlay #1 (permalink)  
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 So I have basically highlighted two locks for this week, PHI -6 and Jacksonville +7. I plan on make three 4 team parlays and including these 2 games in each one of them. So here are the 3 I will be picking tomorrow afternoon, Id like a critique if you think Im making horrible decisions

Card 1
Jags +7
PHI -6
NYG +3.5
BALT -6.5


Card 2
Jags +7
PHI -6
CHI -3.5
STL +4.5

Card 3
Jags +7
PHI -6
CHI -3.5
NYJ +5.5

Alright, I am seriously debating playing AZ -4.5 on card 3 so I know I could have one winner if my top 3 hold? Is this a proper way of thinking, or does this do what I think it does, make you wager twice as much to win the same amount?

On another note, I am actually starting to like sportsbetting more than poker, we'll see after this weekend tho, Im gonna have a lot of money in play.
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swiggidy
Old 09-22-2006, 11:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Giants, meh. Close because Seattle's recievers are sketchy and it pushes them over 7
Balt, I like
Chi is OK
StL I like a lot
Jets good

You're going to get flamed for making parlays FYI
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bigspenda73
Old 09-23-2006, 12:12 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
You're going to get flamed for making parlays FYI
Oh I know, but I think when you can identify two locks and a 4 teamer will pay from 9-1 up then mathematically you can be profitable. Of course, the locks were much easier to pick last week, they are a lot tougher this week.
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zook
Old 09-23-2006, 12:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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If a game's really a lock, why not bet your whole BR (or a huge chunk of it) on that game straight-up? Not flaming, just curious...
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swiggidy
Old 09-23-2006, 12:44 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I just realized you said these were parlays, meh.

I thought you were doing 4 team teasers (which pay 3:1). I would like your chances a lot better then.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-23-2006, 01:06 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
If a game's really a lock, why not bet your whole BR (or a huge chunk of it) on that game straight-up? Not flaming, just curious...
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-43519.htm

I have thought of doing either the straight bet on Philly(but I hate all the juice) or the parlay. I can look at it two way, lets say my BR is an easy number, say 30. If I straight bet PHI (-120) and win I win 25 extra and make my bankroll 55. Now, say I play 3 $10 parlays and one hits, then my BR is is something like $110 (just a general avg of what 1 parlay would win). Now, I know I could miss the parlays, but I could also have more than 1 come in. This is just a rich quick scheme, and Im trying to figure out which one has the biggest return.
Lets say my lock (PHI) really has an 80 percent chance of hitting, then that amount (55) is really now only worth $45.
I figure each one of my parlays could win 20%percent of the time.
(.8*.7*.7*.5=.196)
That means I give myself more than a 50% chance to connect on any of the 3 given parlays, meaning my actual return would be something like $55. This does not even include the possiblity of winning more than 1 parlay.

Now, my bet is going to be considerably larger, something like $300 (or 3 $100 parlays). I just want to grow my B&M poker br b/c I am underrolled bigtime for my 4/8 game but it is soooo juicy, I just want to play will less pressure. For now, that is my thoughts.
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swiggidy
Old 09-23-2006, 01:44 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I figure each one of my parlays could win 20%percent of the time.
(.8*.7*.7*.5=.196)
That means I give myself more than a 50% chance to connect on any of the 3 given parlays, meaning my actual return would be something like $55.
I'm not following the math here, what is that formula?

0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.512, which means there is a 51% chance you go busto

If the odds are right, they say each parlay wins %10 of the time, which yields:
0.9*0.9*0.9 = 73% chance busto

If you think you have that edge then I don't think it's terrible to take it, assuming you are ok loosing it all.

Aside:
where are you getting 9:1 on a 4 team parlay (vegas)? That sucks

SportsBook - 13.1:1
Pinnacle - 12:1
Mansion - 12:1
Skybook - 11:1
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frpm
Old 09-23-2006, 02:41 AM #8 (permalink)  

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bigspenda73
Old 09-23-2006, 03:36 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I figure each one of my parlays could win 20%percent of the time.
(.8*.7*.7*.5=.196)
That means I give myself more than a 50% chance to connect on any of the 3 given parlays, meaning my actual return would be something like $55.
I'm not following the math here, what is that formula?

0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.512, which means there is a 51% chance you go busto

If the odds are right, they say each parlay wins %10 of the time, which yields:
0.9*0.9*0.9 = 73% chance busto

If you think you have that edge then I don't think it's terrible to take it, assuming you are ok loosing it all.

Aside:
where are you getting 9:1 on a 4 team parlay (vegas)? That sucks

SportsBook - 13.1:1
Pinnacle - 12:1
Mansion - 12:1
Skybook - 11:1
The reason it was a 9:1 is b/c I was money lining a favorite in one of the parlays I first looked at, I think Baltimore. That brought it down.
The original formula was my chances that each team would win in each individual parlay.
I thought my two picks would win 80% of the time, the 3rd team 70% of the time, and the final pick 50%. All four would happen 20 percent of the time. So in poker terms I have a flush draw on the river but I get to run it 3 times. 3 chances to hit a 20% draw, that sounds pretty good to me, not sure how to figure the math out on that. The biggest odds I could get on my parly was 12:1. That's pretty standard for a 4 teamer right?
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swiggidy
Old 09-23-2006, 03:48 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.512, which means there is a 51% chance you go busto
3 chances to hit a 20% draw, that sounds pretty good to me, not sure how to figure the math out on that.
That's what I did. 20% to hit => 80% miss. Then chance you miss all 3 is .8^3 or 51%

Quote:
The biggest odds I could get on my parly was 12:1. That's pretty standard for a 4 teamer right?
Yes
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bigspenda73
Old 09-23-2006, 04:25 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 So I am 50/50 to turn 30 into 90, is that the correct assessment? If that's the case, Im in, if I screwed up tell me before tomorrow night.
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swiggidy
Old 09-23-2006, 06:05 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
So I am 50/50 to turn 30 into 90, is that the correct assessment? If that's the case, Im in, if I screwed up tell me before tomorrow night.
If you really believe in your numbers, then the answer is yes it's 50/50.

The thing that doesn't seem right is you only need 53% confidence in each pick for a 1:12 4-way parlay to break even.
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-23-2006, 06:35 PM #13 (permalink)  
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bigspenda73
Old 09-24-2006, 05:46 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 i did gambooool, i moeylined Tenessee for 1/2 my BR, pray for me
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bigspenda73
Old 09-24-2006, 09:49 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 GOD f$%&IN dA%^IT YOU ROTTEN MOTHERFU%^&ERS

Such a tease

On a good note, my moneyline on the Jets came thru BIGGG, as does my straight bet w/ PHI. Looks like Im gonna win a little money today, but if TEN had won, Id be swimmin in it.
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